The 2023 Atlanta Falcons finished the year with a 7-10 record and missed the playoffs for the 6th straight year. They fired head coach Arthur Smith after their week 18 loss to the Saints in which Atlanta lost with a score of 48-17. It was an incredibly frustrating year for both Falcons fans and players as they let a few too many games slip away costing them a trip to the postseason. Their quarterbacks over the past few years have been rather disappointing as over the past two years – Falcons quarterbacks have thrown just 34 touchdown passes to 26 interceptions. They were led by Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heincke entering the 2023 season – and they finished the year 26th in points per game offensively – and scored 20 or more points in just 2 of their final 6 games in 2023. But the Falcons evidently had enough of poor quarterback play – and this offseason they went out and signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a 4 year $180 million dollar contract and then drafted Washington quarterback Michael Penix at number 8 overall. With expected improved quarterback play on a team that already had 7 wins last year – the question for Atlanta becomes – how many wins can they actually get in 2024 – and how far can they actually go? And that’s what were going to try and answer in today’s video. This is the first of 32 team previews for the upcoming season and I hope you enjoy. Now let’s begin.
The 2024 Atlanta Falcons are going to be a heavily watched team due in large part to the offense. It’s very rare for a team to do what Atlanta did over the past few months – specifically at the quarterback position. But the Falcons have a defense. And they’re not just the two quarterbacks, and the projections of what each former first round pick can do in fantasy. And when you look at the Falcons defense heading into 2024 – well they lost guys like Calais Campbell, Jeff Okudah, and bud Dupree in free agency. Calias and Bud each started 16 or more games for the Falcons last year – and finished 1-2 on the team in pressures last year. Obviously Calias and Bud in 2023 weren’t the same players they were earlier in their careers – but them finishing 1-2 on the team in pressures last year is a little concerning too me and I think that’s still a cause for concern moving forward. I know Grady Jarrett only played 7 games as he suffered a torn ACL against the Titans in week 8 of last year – but he wasn’t having a phenomenal year last year by any means. Not bad of course – but certainly not elite either. And I also worry about Grady not just because he had a season ending injury last year – which was the first time in his career he played in less than 14 games – as he’s been an extremely durable player since being drafted back in 2015 – but i think the question of how long is he going to play is completely valid.
He’s played 135 career games – and it takes a toll on a player’s body after all the hits over the years. I also worry about the Falcons pass rush and ultimately how they’re going to get home. I know the immediate thought for most Falcons fans – is that Arnold Ebiketie will step up as he had a 6 sack season last year and had 12 quarterback hits in his second season. And I can absolutely see the vision when projecting the 2024 Falcons and projecting the future of Arnold. But I think it’s a different thing entirely to head into the 2024 season with Arnold as your number one edge rusher and say – okay buddy – you’re in your third year now – break out and become the guy. I was also frustrated with the Falcons usage – or lack there of with 2022 3rd rounder Deangelo Malone. I liked Malone coming out of Western Kentucky and he had 29 tackles as a rookie in 2022 – before playing two total defensive snaps in 2023. He was used exclusively as a special teams player last year which really didn’t make a whole lot of sense to me – as it’s not like the Falcons were loaded with pass rushers – and they chose to not use a former top 100 pick – well except for two total snaps. Lorenzo Carter is a former 3rd round pick and he’s never been a great pass rusher and should certainly not be a guy you depend on to be a reliable pass rusher. He’s not bad – and he certainly has a role in the NFL – but heading into the 2024 season with Arnold Ebiketie, Lorenzo Carter, Zach Harrison, and Deangelo Malone or Bradlee Anne as your top edge rushers is putting your team at a disadvantage before the season starters. It’s easy to say with the Falcons in 2024 – that they’re not going to go very far and point to a team like the 49ers for example – who could beat not just Atlanta – but really anyone in the NFC prior to reaching the Super Bowl. Or it’s easy to say well Kirk Cousins is good and will have good games – like the 49ers game last year for example – but this team is much more than the few skill position players they have on offense.
And I really really worry with how they are going to get after the quarterback this year. They finished tied for 22nd in sacks last year with 42 – and like we said with Calais and Bud leaving – there’s 13 of the 42 sacks gone. And even in Grady Jarrett’s prime – he was never a big sack guy as his career high is 7.5. Hell of a player in his prime – but I don’t expect Grady to have a double digit sack year this year. And what I also worry about with Atlanta – is they had just 42 sacks last year in a division that wasn’t good in pass protection. Meaning – they played 35% of their games against division opponents – and really could have skewed their numbers with a big game against the Panthers offensive line – which was abysmal last year – or the Saints – who absolutely had offensive line issues last year, or even Tampa who threw the ball a lot – as Baker would go on to finish 7th in passing attempts last year. But they didn’t. And in today’s era where getting after the quarterback is almost a pre requisite for winning – well – this is a serious concern I have with the 2024 Atlanta Falcons. Are they going to be able to get past the Eagles offensive line when it matters? Are they going to be able to get after Brock Purdy in a fast enough time before any of their players get open? Are they going to be able to get after Jared Goff if they have to go to Detroit for a playoff game? I don’t think so. At least – not consistently.
Now one other concern I have with the 2024 Falcons is their secondary – or at least the secondary members not named AJ Terrell and Jessie Bates. Jessie Bates had a great year last year and it’s a shame the team wasn’t better than they were because he didn’t get a lot of recognition nationally that he absolutely deserved. AJ Terrell also had a better year in 2023 than he did in 2022 – which was of course after the elite year he had back in 2021. Terrell having a bounce back year was big to me because we got to see the player we all know he can be – and he showed it for most of the 2023 season. And if you want to say well he gave up a big play to whoever or a touchdown to this guy – well this is the reality – the average player at the receiver position in today’s NFL is better than the average corner. And there’s a reason corners are in such high demand year in and year out. And it’s because teams always want more corners because they need to be able to limit the guys who can take over games. But high school players who are playing both ways see the type of money receivers are making versus corners – and more often than not – they choose the receiver route – hence the surplus of talent at the position. But the point is – corners – especially in an era where the rules favor the offense more than ever before – are going to give up plays. Period. But I worry about guys like Clark Phillips, Jayden Price, Antonio Hamilton Sr, and Harrison Hand. One other thing that I think is kind of misled about the Falcons 2023 defense is – I think they look statistically better than what they actually were. From their week 11 bye on – Atlanta finished the year by playing the Saints twice, the Jets, Bucs, Panthers, Colts, and Bears. And simply thinking out loud – who is the best quarterback they played during this span? It was Baker Mayfield, but the point is – for the final 7 games of the year – they played guys like Derek Carr, Gardner Minshew, a rookie Bryce Young in a monsoon, Tim Boyle, and Justin Fields. And the reason we bring this up is because the Falcons actually finished 8th in passing yards allowed last year – which may be a surprise to a lot of people. But when you factor in who they played down the stretch – which doesn’t include games against Bryce Young the first time, Josh Dobbs, Sam Howell and others – well – I don’t think the Falcons secondary is the 8th best in the league. And I really worry about them in 2024. I think a lot of opponents game plans will be to throw away from Jessie and AJ and whatever happens – happens. The drop off in talent after AJ Terrell at corner is substantial on this roster – and their corners – along with their pass rush – is one of my biggest concerns for them this year.
