The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the 2023 regular season with a 9-8 record and made the playoffs for the 4th straight year. It was their 3rd straight division title and they won a playoff game as they beat the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild card round with a score of 32-9. They would go on to lose to the Lions in the divisional round of the playoffs with a score of 31 to 23 and all in all – it was a very successful season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There were several moments they could have thrown in the towel – like a 39-37 loss to the Texans in week 9 in which CJ Stroud would go on to throw for 470 yards and 5 touchdowns. Or a few weeks later when they drooped to 4-7 with a 27-20 home loss to the Colts. But they never stopped and won 5 of their last 6 games to finish the year with a 9-8 record and win their first playoff game under head coach Todd Bowles. They even had solid rookie contribution from guys like Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby who combined for 11.5 sacks, and had second round pick Cody Mauch play all 17 games and all 1,100 snaps last year. But not every year is the same and I truly believe the 2024 Bucs are in for a big let down. There’s a lot of reasons for this and we’re going to break it down int today’s video. Now let’s begin
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished 7th in points allowed per game in 2023 as they allowed an average of just 19.1 points per game. They allowed 30 or more points just one in the regular season which was to the Texans, while allowing 20 points or less in 8 of their 17 games last year. In those 8 games – the Bucs went 7-1 with their lone loss to the Falcons in week 7. Technically they went 8-1 with the wild card win over the Eagles. Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr each had over 100 tackles last year and each player played some of the best football of their career – and especially Winfield who was rewarded with a 4 year $84 million dollar contract to keep him in Tampa through the 2027 season – well deserved by the way. The Bucs defense has a lot of pieces entering the 2024 season – and a lot of players I like – and also think are amongst the best in the league at what they do – or will soon be in one players case. But for the Antoine Winfield’s, the Lavonte David’s, and the Vita Vea’s – I have some concern with this defense too. I have a lot of concern with the pass rush – specifically the exterior pass rush and I don’t know how they’re going to consistently get home. I like Calijah Kancey a lot – and I think he will be a very good player for a long time – but I also think it would be borderline wreckless to rely on him as a second year defensive tackle and to say – hey we know you’re good and you showed promise during your rookie year – go out and get us 70 pressures from the interior this year, go get us 9+ sacks, and force two opposing offensive lineman to block you and give our edges one on one’s. I know they also have Vita Vea from the interior and I love a good interior pass rush – but it has to be complemented with at least one good exterior rusher and this is where I have my concerns with the Buccaneers. Yaya Diaby led the team last year with 7.5 sacks and good for him – having 7.5 sacks as a 3rd round rookie is a big deal and if you are a Bucs fan – you should be thrilled with the production he had last year. But what you may not know – is – Diaby finished the year with just 26 pressures and had a pass rush win rate of just 7.5%.
A 7.5% win rates not good and Diaby finished 9th in rookies in pressures last year. Meaning he was not consistently getting home and there were games – where unless you were specifically looking for him – you would have missed him. I hope he can become a consistent player for Tampa in 2024 and to be honest – I would prefer a decline in sacks if that meant he got to – or around – the quarterback more. I would rather him have a 45 pressure season with just 5 sacks than have 7.5 sacks on just 26 pressures because that would mean he’s winning more consistently and he is getting home more. And if you can do that on a consistent level – then the sacks will come. One other reason I have concerns with the Bucs pass rush entering 2024 is due to the development – or lack of – with Joe Tryon – Shoyinka. Joe had 5 sacks in 2023 – 3 of which came against the Bears and Panthers. He had two sacks against the Bears and why this is notable is – Justin Fields was notorious for holding on to the football. And Justin held the ball the longest in 2023 as he had an average time to throw off 3.39 seconds. Second was Lamar Jackson at 3.17. And the reason we bring this up is because the difference of 0.22 seconds – the difference between Justin and Lamar – is the same difference between Lamar and CJ Stroud who had the 10th highest average time to throw last year. Meaning Justin was a very big outlier in terms of how long he would hold on to the football – meaning – it’s easier to get sacks when playing Justin due to this. And when 60% of your sacks in one season come against this quarterback and one of the worst offensive lines in all of football in the 2023 Panthers – well I don’t have a lot of confidence in Joe moving forward. Now if you are a die hard Bucs fan or if you go and look at Joe individual box score from 2023 – you will see that he had a sack against the Lions – who have one of the best offensive lines in all of football.
And we are not conveniently leaving this out. The sack Joe had against the Lions that was credited to him was on a play Jared Goff ran out of bounds at the line of scrimmage. These were 4 of his 5 sacks last year. And when you break it down further – 12 of his 26 pressures last year were against the Bears or Panthers. All of this to say – I don’t think there’s going to be a contract year breakout from him. If I’m wrong and Joe has a great year and is the missing piece – by all means I welcome being wrong. But I don’t think Joe is a consistent player – or anywhere close to a consistent enough player – that Tampa can really rely on in 2024. Their 3rd edge rusher is Randy Greggory who will turn 32 in November and I don’t think Randy is a reliable pass rusher at this point in his career either. We will get to second round pick Chris Braswell during the rookie impact part of the video. I worry about their secondary – outside of Antoine Winfield Jr and Jamel Dean. Jamel was a 3rd round pick back in 2019 and he’s been a very solid player for them. He is the definition of a good solid corner that a lot of NFL teams wish they had. And I liked what 2023 UDFA Christian Izien brought them last year and think he will be a solid nickel corner for them again this year. But the second outside corner for the Bucs leaves a lot to be desired for. There were multiple games last year where Zyon McCollum was picked on and it’s because – teams do not want to throw at Jamel Dean or even Christian Izien if they can avoid it. The Bucs run defense is very good and they finished top 10 in every category last year defensively – and this is why I worry about their secondary this year. Because for the concerns as I have with their secondary – I do not have any concerns with their run defense – which of course is led by Vita Vea. So what opposing teams liked to do in 2023 – was pass the football because they knew if they were going to try and run against the Bucs defense last year – it was going to have to be outside the hashes and even then – Antoine Winfield Jr, Lavonte David, and everyone else would be there to clean it up. So the solution – was – try and attack Zyon McCollum. Try and attack the weak link.
The 2023 Lions finished 5th in rushing yards, 1st in rushing touchdowns, and 5th in yards per carry as a team and ran for 40 total yards when these teams squared off in week 6. Jared Goff threw for over 350 yards and that was how they beat the Bucs last year. And I think that’s how a lot of teams are going to try and beat them this year. They have a very difficult schedule and they play teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, Lions, Cowboys, Eagles, and now – the Kirk Cousins led Falcons twice. All of these teams have good quarterbacks. And the Bucs had 9 wins last year due in large part to beating teams like the Panthers twice, the Derek Carr led Saints in which they forced 3 turnovers, the Titans, and the Bears. Although credit where it is absolutely due – they went into Lambeau and played their tails off and Baker Mayfield had a perfect passer rating in this game and they played a phenomenal game that was without a doubt one of their best games they played all year. But my big question with the 2024 Bucs – is – do you think that’s going to be a sustainable model to win football games this year? Do you think you can ask Baker Mayfield to throw for 381 yards and 4 touchdowns every game? The answer is of course no. And due in large part to the pass rush, and the weak links in the secondary – I have a reasonable concern with the Bucs entering 2024.
