The Buffalo Bills finished the 2023 season with an 11-6 record and made the playoffs for the 5th straight year. And unfortunately for the Bills and their fan base – their season ended before they could get to the Super Bowl. And unfortunately for the Bills – their season ended with a loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for the 3rd time in 4 years. It was a tough end to the 2023 season for the Bills and this offseason represented what every NFL team goes through in today’s era – and that’s a roster reset. The Bills have been pushing hard for a Super Bowl since they had acquired Stefon Diggs back in March of 2020 – and in Diggs first year with the team – they went from a team that went 10-6 0 with a young athletic quarterback – to a team with a legitimate MVP candidate at quarterback paired with a receiver who would lead the league in receiving yards. That 2020 season really changed things for Buffalo – and they’ve consistently been one of the best teams in the NFL since. But not every team lasts forever and the NFL is a business. And the Bills had several veterans leave the team this offseason whether it was due to trade, their contract expiring, or flat out getting released. And this put Buffalo in a tough situation because internally – they think they are a Super Bowl contender. And with this much change to the roster in one offseason – I think it’s going to be very tough for them to get there this year. And that’s put the Bills between a rock and a hard place – because – the question is – how far will they go this year? Well, we’re going to break everything down in today’s video. Now let’s begin
And we are starting today’s video by breaking down the Bills offseason departures and offseason acquisitions prior to the NFL draft. What I want to preface this part with – is – the Bills have the second most dead money out of any NFL team prior to the 2024 season. They have over $61 million dollars in dead money and what this means is – they are paying $61 million dollars to players who are not going to be playing for the Bills this season. And for reference – the bottom 4 teams in the NFL all have between 6.2 and 8.6 million dollars in dead cap – so every team is going to pay some sort of dead cap money every year – but when you have nearly a quarter of your teams salary cap in dead money before the players even take a snap – well – you are going to be limited as to what you are going to be able to do – and you are going to be behind the 8 ball before the season starts. Period. And a big reason why the Bills are stuck between a rock and a hard place is because they had two options heading into this year – either try and continue to roll with what has not been working in each of the past few postseasons – or to let the pricey veterans go and try and again and – not rebuild – but reload. And in all fairness to the Bills – what they have been doing over the past few years has been working – it just stinks – that they are in the middle of a literal dynasty and unfortunately they aren’t the team winning 3 super bowls in 5 years.
But they have been doing everything right over the past few years. The bill eventually comes due. And players like Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Stefon Diggs, and Mitch Morse – either get old, want too much money, or are being paid too much money and the guarantees from their contract are up – so they inevitably get released. Or in one players case – essentially force your way out of town. But for reference – this team is paying Stefon Diggs $31 million dollars in 2024, and they’re also paying Tre’Davious White $6.2 million – to again – not play for the team. Naturally this is going to limit what you can spend in free agency and the Bills biggest free agent signing was bringing in Curtis Samuel from the Commanders who signed a 3 year $24 million dollar contract to play for Buffalo. They didn’t really do too much in free agency aside from bring in Curtis as they technically brought back Mitch Trubisky – who spent the last two years with the Steelers – and also brought in veteran defensive tackle Austin Johnson. They also brought in some depth pieces – but this offseason was about trying to replace players that previously played for the team and this offseason was an example of what the financial cost is when going for a championship. Now just because the Bills don’t have a lot of players that played for them for several years – like the Hyde’s, the Poyer’s, and the Morse’s of the world – does not mean they’re automatically done before the season starts. This team finished 6th in points per game last year offensively and they finished 4th in points allowed per game defensively – and they again – will be one of the better teams in all of football – it’s just going to look a little different.
Unfortunately for the Bills – they have sustained a few major injuries already and the biggest is with linebacker Matt Milano. Milano was a 5th round pick back in 2017 and has been a great payer for the Bills over the years. He was a first team all pro back in 2022 and unfortunately Milano had a season ending injury in week 5 of the 2023 season – when he suffered a season ending fractured leg in a game against the Jags. As of the time I record this video – in August of 2024 – Milano suffered a torn bicep and is currently out indefinitely. Obviously that’s a tremendous loss to the Bills defense – but the one thing I will say about this loss – is – it happened in August – and not a week before the playoffs start – and not only that – but Milano was injured early last year and they had nearly three quarters of the season to play without him and get used to him not being there. That is of course – not – to diminish the player Matt Milano is – as much as it is to say – they are not entirely doomed because he suffered a major injury. Now to go back to the Bills free agent moves or even cutting former players – I do think the worst thing to happen to this franchise over the past few years was Von Miller tearing his ACL back in 2022 against the Lions. I had no problem when the Bills signed Von to a 6 year $120 million dollar contract because of the way the contract was structured. 51 of the 120 was guaranteed and the reality of this deal – was – it was always going to be a 3 year contract. The plan was for Buffalo to win a Super Bowl during one of the first 3 years but unfortunately a lot of things went sideways. There’s no chance the Bills pay a then 38 year old Von Miller in 2027 – $32.6 million dollars when he can be cut after this season and save the franchise $17.5 million dollars – and this is per over the cap dot com. The reason we bring this up is because Von has the second highest cap hit on the team this year only behind Josh Allen. And Von looked anything but himself when he came back last year which was discouraging for the team moving forward. Anytime a player suffers a major injury – it obviously sucks – but I feared the worst when Von tore his ACL because this was going to be a 34 year old edge rusher – who relies on his explosiveness and twitch as an athlete to get off the ball and to get home to the quarterback. And unfortunately Von was nowhere close to the Von Miller we’ve seen for so many years last year – and I expect that to carry over at 35 years old this year. But the good news for Buffalo is pass rusher Greg Rousseau has produced at a rate you would want Von to produce – especially within the last year. Rousseau had over 50 pressures last year and Greg has always been a good player – it’s just about maturing in the league and continuing to get the reps in with time. Greg had a career high 8 sacks back in 2022 and while he only had 5 in 2023 – he had a career high in pressures last year – even more than he had in 2022 despite decreasing in sacks last year. I truly think this will be Greg’s big breakout year and I think the Bills are going to have conversations about how much to pay Greg a year from now. And AJ Epenesa is a solid second rusher as he is quietly working on back to back 6.5 sack seasons and will play this season at just 26 years old – so there is absolutely a reality where he plays for this franchise for the next several years. The big thing with this edge group is – will Von be a serviceable player this year – or will he continue to age and be a shell of the player he was even during his first season with the Bills back in 2022. Expecting Von to be a 2012 or 2013 Von at this point simply isn’t realistic – but if he can be a good third rusher – then I like this unit a lot more than I currently do. I like Greg for who he is as player, but I do have some concerns with this group entering the year
Now for the secondary – I do not worry about this unit – or should I say starting unit. If you want to get nitpicky and talk about their 4th or 5th corner – then be my guest go for it – but most teams 4th or 5th corners believe it or not – are not going to magically be a first team all pro somewhere else and they’re just buried on the depth chart. My point is – I like the trio of Rasul Douglas, Christian Bedford, and one of the most underrated players in all of football – Taron Johnson. Now if you want to have the “what if” injury discussion – then I can’t stop you. But I like this secondary and I don’t think they are doomed by the losses of Tre’Davious White, and the safety duo of Hyde and Poyer – and especially Tre’Davious who has unfortunately dealt with multiple lower body injuries over the past few years. Ed Oliver has developed into a really really good player and had a career high 9.5 sacks last year as well as over 60 pressures and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Ed and Greg combine for 20 sacks this year. I like this defense a lot, and they are going to be a very difficult unit to score on in the loaded AFC. And I think that’s lost within most outlooks for the 2024 Bills – is – their defense finished top 4 in points allowed per game last year despite their quarterback throwing 18 interceptions and throwing them out of countless games.
