The Miami Dolphins finished the 2023 season with an 11-6 record and made the playoffs for the second straight year. And despite an 11-6 record sounding good – and it is a good record don’t get me wrong – it was a very up and down year for this team for several reasons. They started out with a 3-0 record as they beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Broncos in consecutive weeks – and that’s great – you have to beat the teams in front of you – but they lost to the Bills in week 4 with a score of 48-20 and this would be the sign of how the rest of the Dolphins season would go. In weeks 5 and 6 – they beat the Giants and Panthers – each by double digits – to improve to 5-1 and the connection between the Giants and Panthers is – each of those teams finished with bottom 6 records in the entire league. They would then lose two out of their next 3 to the Eagles and Chiefs – both of whom made the playoffs and you get the point. The lone team Miami beat with a winning record in 2023 was the Dallas Cowboys – who they beat in week 16 with a score of 22-20. They would go on to lose the final two regular season games to the Ravens and Bills – and then the Chiefs in the wild card round of the playoffs to close out their 2023 season – all of which were playoff teams. And in the offseason – the Dolphins gave quarterback Tua Tagavailoa a 4 year $212 million dollar contract and with a lot of other moves this team made this offseason – they have cornered themselves. The Dolphins aren’t going for a wild card exit. No. They’re going for a Super Bowl. And the big question for them entering the 2024 season is – will they get there? Well, we’re going to break everything down in today’s video. Now let’s begin
And we are starting today’s video by breaking down who the Dolphins signed in free agency, and who they lost in free agency. The Dolphins lost a few big players from last year to this year – and the first of course is defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. Christian is a very good player and while he may not be a top 2 or 3 defensive tackle – mainly because of how loaded the position is with guys like Chris Jones, Dexter Lawrence, and Quinine Williams – I do think Christian is in the next tier and he is going to be a player the Dolphins are going to miss. An din a big way. He is coming off a year in which he had a career high in quarterback hits and sacks, and not only that – but he has been a incredibly durable player since being drafted back in 2019 as he has missed a grand total of two career games – which was back in 2020 – and it was because Wilkins missed a few games due to COVID – so he’s never missed a game due to a real on the field injury. And as we know – the best ability is availability. And it also helps when you are a really great player – which Christian of course is – and replacing him isn’t going to be easy. They also lost guard Robert Hunt, and while Robert was a good player for this team over the last few years – I don’t think he was worth the $100 million dollar contract Carolina gave him. And inevitably – if you have $100 million dollars staring you in the face – are you really going to decline the opportunity? No. And Miami was never going to be able to compete with that type of offer especially given the situation Carolina was in. I don’’t think Robert was egregiously overpaid to the point where he should have been paid $60 million over 5 years or anything crazy like that – just slightly overpaid. But the point is – losing two players in free agency to $100 million dollar + contracts in one offseason is huge. But these weren’t the only two players they lost. They also lost linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel to the Vikings, defensive tackle Raekwon Davis to the Colts, and linebacker Jerome Baker to the Seahawks. While Andrew Van Ginkel is not a household name – I think it is worth noting that Christian Wilkins called him the smartest player he’s ever played with. And when you have to replace countless starters form one year to the next – with limited resources – it’s going to be difficult. And the one loss that I don’t think will be noticed until a few games are played – is Connor Williams going to the Seahawks. Now what needs to be contextualized with the Connor Williams loss in free agency was he tore his ACL in a December game against the Titans and there was concern he wouldn’t be ready when the season started – but like we’ve mentioned before – Center is one of the most important positions on the field. And Connor is a tremendous run blocker that undoubtedly played a big part in the Dolphins success last season. And when you have to replace as many guys as the Dolphins have from one season to the next – while internally thinking they’re in a super bowl window – well – this all scares me heading into the 2024 season.
And I know it’s easy to sit back from a far and say – well with the limitations this roster has – and with the turnover this roster had from 2023 to 2024 – they’re probably going to be anywhere from a 9 to 11 win team – and it would be nice for this team’s future if they won a playoff game. But let’s call it what it is. The Dolphins – despite not winning a playoff game since the year 2000 – in what was a wild card round victory over a then 24 year old Peyton Manning – the Dolphins internally think this is their year. And you can tell by who they signed and who they prioritized this offseason. They didn’t bring in guys like Odell, Jordan Poyer, and Calais Campbell to sit back and say – hey guys – come play in South Florida and enjoy partial retirement in the city of Miami while getting paid a hefty chunk of change. No. They brought these guys into be short term players and guys who they think are upgrades from where the roster previously was – with one goal in mind – and that of course is to win a Super Bowl. That also applies to Kendall Fuller, Jonnu Smith and it also applied to Shaq Barrett – but he retired before the season began so I’m going to exclude him from this – but the concept applied. Now why I worry about the 2024 Dolphins defense is – they are already at a disadvantage heading into the year because of injuries that happened late in the 2023 season. Jaelan Phillips tore his achilles on Black Friday, and Bradley Chubb tore his ACL on New Years eve in Baltimore. And why this could hurt the 2024 Dolphins is simple – we already know Bradley Chubb is going to miss the first 4 games of the year as he is going to start on the PUP list. Now Jaelan Phillips is coming off of a major injury – and I – nor anyone – knows how he is going to play in the first few games of the year coming off of the torn Achilles. What I will say – is – he will not miss any games to start the year and all you can do is hope he is the player he was pre injury. And I did not mention this at any point in the video prior to this – so I do want to go ahead and acknowledge this because I know Dolphins fans are certainly thinking it – they were outscored 103-40 in the final 3 games of their 2023 season – meaning the final two regular season games and then the playoff game against Kansas City – but it absolutely worth mentioning they were down several starters in this game including their top two edge rushers and their starting center. Now – I don’t think Miami wins this game regardless – but I know they were down several starters during the final few games of the year and some Dolphins fans legitimately think they could have won – had they been healthy. The reason we bring this up is because health for the Dolphins – and technically every other NFL team is going to be critical this year. And I realize that’s an incredibly obvious statement – but I think it applies more to Miami than other teams because of the depth they have in their secondary – minus the edge rushing group. I actually really like Miami’s edge rushing group – and they also drafted Chop Robinson in the first round of the draft. And I know they have some great players on this defense – like Jevon Holland, like Jaelan Phillips, and like Jalen Ramsey- but aside from Holland and Phillips – a lot of these guys are older and I do worry about the miles they have on their bodies from years and years of playing in the NFL – and also aside from Kader Kohou.
One other thing I worry about with the Dolphins that doesn’t apply to every team – but I worry about how this team will play when they’re playing against other great NFL teams. I know the obvious thing to do is dismiss the final games against the Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs – because of injuries – but – those are the teams you’re going to play when it matters. Just being honest – I don’t care if the Dolphins beat the Broncos 70-20, or if they beat them 13-10 – because I expect Miami to win 90% of their games against non playoff teams. And out of their 6 losses last year – only one was against a non playoff team – which was against the Titans in week 14 when Miami blew a double digit lead with less than 3 minutes to play. What I worry about with the Dolphins is how they’re going to play against the elite teams of the conference. And from a strategic and competitive standpoint – Aaron Rodgers going down undoubtedly helped Miami last year. I would be shocked if they sweep the Jets this year and there’s no chance they beat them 30 to zero like they did in one if their games last year – or hold them to just 263 total yards in the two games you play them – and yes that’s total – not 263 yards for the Jets in each game either. And I think a lot of things went Miami’s way last year – like the Bills stumbling at times as they lost to teams like the Patriots, and Broncos – and even fell to 6-6 at a point – and again – from a competitive standpoint – having a 4 time league MVP go down in week 1 and effectively ending a division rivals season then and there. And just being honest – you can’t rely on that happening again. That can’t be your game plan heading into a season. And when you sign all of the veteran free agents Miami did this offseason – they have cornered themselves into a Super Bowl or bust mentality. Odell doesn’t care if they lose in the wild card round or the AFC championship game – and the same applies to Calais Campbell for that matter. And when you corner yourself like this – it’s a now or never situation. And even for as good as I think this team will play at times – I don’t think it’s going to be enough.
