The Washington Commanders finished the 2023 season with a 4-13 record and missed the playoffs for the 7th time in 8 years. It was a very long season for the Commanders as they finished dead last in points allowed per game and dead last in yards allowed. They allowed 30 or more points in 10 of the 17 games they played and had 7 double digit losses in the process. This was after they started the year 3-3 and things weren’t – looking good per se – but things weren’t looking as bad as they were just a few months later. The franchise opted to trade not just one – but two – former first round pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat before the trade deadline and their season did not go well after. And to be clear – they weren’t going to go 12-5 and make a postseason run had they kept Young and Sweat – but that certainly didn’t help with their 2023 season.
Ron Rivera was as fired as a coach as I’ve ever seen and there were times where they panned to him on the sideline down the stretch of the 2023 season – where everyone knew – that Ron was gone at seasons end. And the good news for the Commanders and their fans is – the worst days are behind them. They endured a lot throughout the 2023 season and really for the past 20 years for that matter too – but for the first time in several years – their future doesn’t look dim. And now with Jayden Daniels as their franchise quarterback – along with the other improvements they made this offseason – the worst days are behind them. They’re not going to get beat 65-20 in the final two games of the 2024 season – like they did in the final two games of the 2023 season. And now the question is – how many games can they actually win this year? Well we’re going to break everything down in today’s video. Now let’s begin
And we are starting today’s video by discussing who the Commanders brought in in free agency and who they lost in free agency – prior to the NFL draft. Obviously when you trade away two edge rushers like Washington did in the middle of a season – you are going to have to replace them the following offseason which is exactly what Washington did. Dan Quinn brought edge Dorance Armstrong with him to the nation’s capital and in 2023 – Dorance had over 30 pressures, had 7.5 sacks and was a really good second pass rusher behind Micah Parsons. And over the last two years – Dorance quietly has 16 total sacks – which again – is really solid production. Not great of course – but solid. And the one big thing we are going to emphasize with the Commanders in today’s video – is – this offseason was about raising the floor from where they were at the end of the 2023 season. This team at the end of 2023 was down and out and they played like it. And I know the Commanders brought in a lot of free agents this offseason – and there were a lot of jokes about bringing in Austin Ekeler and Bobby Wagner specifically saying – how good this team would have been back in 2019 and inferring these guys are over the hill. And we’ll get to those guys – but the point is – General Manager Adam Peters knew this was not going to be an overnight fix and so did Dan Quinn. Neither took the job thinking they were going to go from 4-13 to a 15-2 team that runs the table with a rookie quarterback in the first year of those two as a GM and head coach duo. And the point of all of those free agent signings was to raise the floor from what this team was last year – and to be able to buy time with the rebuild. Because what also has to be remembered is – this wasn’t a great team that was a quarterback away. This team had a lot of holes and everyone knew it.
Now I do have a slight concern with the Dorance Armstrong signing and it’s that Dorance is a good Robin pass rusher – but not a batman true alpha 70 pressure 12 sack pass rusher. And that’s fine – because the second tier pass rushers have a clear role and teams need them. I promise no team is going to deny 21 sacks over the last two years from their second pass rusher and say they’re good without it. My concern with Armstrong is the demand of going from being the second best edge rusher to the primary edge rusher and everything that entails. I’m sure Washington fans can’t stand Micah Parsons given that he is a division rival and how elite of a player he is – but not every player is Micah – and he makes his job look easy. And simply put – I don’t expect Dorance to be anywhere close to that type of player – meaning the true alpha edge pass rusher. He also wasn’t paid to be that type of guy, but what I will say for both Dorance and Clelin Ferrell – who is Washington’s other edge rusher – is – having Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen on the interior is going to be extremely beneficial for them. And I do think in the sense of Washington prioritizing the interior defensive line – that they are taking steps in the right direction due in large part to this. And I absolutely commend them for taking Johnny Newton in the second round when he fell in their laps to only beef up the defensive line more. Johnny is a lighter defensive tackle where as Da’Ron Payne is obviously a big boy along the interior – and I wouldn’t doubt that Johnny takes snaps at 5 tech in obvious passing situations this year because of the value he brings as a rusher. Clelin Ferrell was signed to a one year deal worth a little under $4 million – and he is an obvious example of just raising the floor until they can really attack this position the way they want to moving forward. And Clelin has just 13.5 sacks in 5 years since being drafted number 4 overall back in 2019 – and if for some miraculous reason he has a career year this year and has 45 pressures and has a 6 or 7 sacks – then Washington can effectively sign him to a 2 year deal next offseason and only guarantee one year of pay – that way they would be protected in as a franchise. He is pretty much the definition of a guy that could be a bargain – and if he doesn’t workout – no harm no foul.
I also think the same applies to Jeremy Chinn – a player who had a really good first few years of his career – then would go on to play just 23 games over the next two seasons and not look close to the same player he was back in 2020 and 2021. I obviously wish the best for Jeremy Chinn – but I also think it’s important to be realistic when thinking about his impact with the 2024 Commanders. It’s very much a case of expect the worst and hope for the best. And I don’t want to bring up too many bad memories for Washington’s fan base – but I sincerely hope Bobby Wagner is not a Washington free agent signing of a player that is washed and spends his last year there before officially hanging up the cleats. There’s countless players you could mention throughout the years – but the future hall of famer played well for Seattle last year and was named an all pro for the 10th year in a row. I don’t think the 2024 Commanders defense will be amongst the best in the league by any means – but I think it will be a noticeable improvement from 2023 to 2024 – and that’s huge considering this team allowed 27 or more points in the final 8 games they played in 2023. And to be completely honest – I think the Commanders defense is serviceable entering the year. Meaning – I don’t really look at any position and think man they are outright bad – the way I look at some other teams position groups across the league. I know there is a genuine concern for the Commanders edge group and I get it – but with the combination of Payne and Allen from the interior, and Johnny Newton, Dorance Armstrong, and Dante Fowler also contributing as pass rushers – I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as people make it out to be. And there’s also the fact that Dan Quinn is a good defensive minded coach. I know it’s incredibly easy to look at the very last game Dan coached as the defensive coordinator for the Cowboys and look at how many points were given up, and how many chunk plays the Packers had within that game – but the Cowboys under Dan Quinn finished 7th in points allowed per game in 2021, and 5th in points allowed per game in each of the last two years. Sure there was better talent in Dallas and there’s not many teams that have a Micah Parsons – but Washington’s defense is going to be better in 2024 for a few reasons – they’re going to have a head coach that’s a better fit for the team – and who genuinely wants to be there and to establish a winning culture. We discuss this a lot during the interview with Trevor Sikkema – but the 2023 Commanders had a -14 turnover margin and opposing quarterbacks had a touchdown to interception ratio of 39 to 8 against them in 2023. The reality is – if you have those two stats alone – you are not going to win many games – and not surprisingly they didn’t. But what will also help the Commanders in 2024 is Jayden Daniels. Defenses having to account for Jayden Daniels on every play is going to be – and brace yourself – is going to have a Lamar type impact with how much he runs – strictly from a running standpoint. I don’t expect Jayden to be a 2 time MVP award winner and to transcend the game – but being able to run the football – and to keep their own defense off the field will be incredibly rewarding down the stretch of the season. And being able to play complimentary football – which is something the Commanders could not do in 2024 – is going to be critical for their success.
The Commanders corners are going to get discussed a lot this year and one in particular. And while they don’t have a Sauce Gardner, or Pat Surtain – I think their corners will be ok for this year specifically. A lot of corner play – though obviosuly not all to be clear – but a lot of corner play can be attributed to pass rush. And there’s obviously going to be big plays given up by the 2024 Commanders defense – but they’re not going to be 39-8 opposing TD to INT ratio bad. I refuse to believe they’re going to be that bad two years in a row. I absolutely loved the selection of nickel corner Mike Sainristil in the second round and think he will be a good player for them for years to come. Now I don’t want to harp on the Emmanuel Forbes selection for too long – but I was never a fan of this selection especially when Christian Gonzalez was on the board. I hope Forbes works out as a player – but he’s already down on the depth chart entering his second season but as long as the Commanders corners can be ok – not even great – just okay – which should also improve with their pass rush getting better – this unit will improve by default. I like Benjamin St Juste and I think he is a good player to be molded by Dan Quinn. They finished dead last in several categories last year and I think they will still be in the lower half of defnesive rankings in 2024 – but I think they’ll be in the 22-25 range – which again is a 7 to 10 spot improvement from last year to this year. The big thing with the Washington Commanders defense this year – is realistic expectations. Do not expect them to be 85 Bears or 2000 Ravens – and obviosuly nobody is – but the bottom line is – they will improve.
