The
Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-3 on the season after a 47-10 loss in Buffalo in which they were absolutely embarrassed. This was already after two disappointing losses to the Dolphins and Browns to start the season – and as we know – after a collapse late in the 2023 season. Since week 12 of the 2023 season – they have went just 1-8 in their ensuing 9 games with their lone win coming over the Carolina Panthers late in the 2023 season. And believe it or not – there was a brief point in time where the Jags were the number one seed in the AFC with an 8-3 record – before losing 5 of their final 6 games and ultimately missing the playoffs for the 4th time in 5 years. The Jags have been an up and down team over the past few years with some incredibly high highs – like when they came back from being down 27 points in the playoffs against the Chargers – and like the comeback win against the Ravens back in 2022. But they’ve also had some incredibly low lows and Monday night was a shining example in front of the nation to see. And after losing 8 of their last 9 games – with not a lot of hope moving forwards – the Jacksonville Jaguars need to start over. In today’s video we’re going to break down how they got here, and what they can do to get out of this situation. Because right now – it’s ugly. And there is a lot to dive into in today’s video and without further ado – let’s begin
And we are starting today’s video by breaking down what’s gone wrong for the Jags over the past 10 games and discussing why we’ve came to the conclusion that they need to start over. And there’s really no definitive answer because there are a lot of things that have gone wrong over the past several months. Whether the expectations were ever fair for Trevor Lawrence coming out as a draft prospect is an entirely different discussion – but he has disappointed as a number one overall pick – outside of a several game span during his second season. And the Buffalo game in week 3 was a culmination of a lot of things that have gone wrong all wrapped into one. I think a lot of the time people want to make the issue one thing vs the other – when with Jacksonville it’s not just one issue. It’s not just a black or white discussion – it’s very much a gray area.
I side with Jags fans when I say the organization has let Trevor down in a monumental way since being the number one overall pick 3 and a half years ago – but I also think it’s fair to say Trevor is not a great or elite player at his position either – and especially over the several games which of course dates back to last year. Trevor Lawrence is credited with having 8 dropped passes in the first 3 games of the season and that is tied for second with Daniel Jones – and only behind Deshaun Watson – who’s receivers have dropped 10 passes. But Trevor has thrown less passes than both Daniel and Deshaun – and Trevor’s drop percentage is actually higher than both Daniel Jones and Deshaun Watson. And when you factor in Trevor’s offensive line has been terrible, his receivers aren’t getting open, and when they do they drop passes – you have a good recipe for losing football. And we’re also at a point where Trevor isn’t confident in what he’s seeing and it shows every single week.
Obviously there’s been a lot of publicity around Bryce Young in the first few weeks of the season and you could see just how unconfident he was in everything around him – but Trevor isn’t confident in what he’s seeing either. He’s also having a very poor season and he’s flat out missing throws that he has no business missing. These are throws that a college quarterback should make – let alone an NFL franchise quarterback who was just paid over $250 million dollars. There was a stick concept in the 3rd quarter against Buffalo on 2nd and 6 and Trevor had a clean pocket and he just flat out missed the throw. Sure this play wouldn’t have changed the result – but it’s the routine plays that Trevor and the Jags aren’t making. There’s nothing special about this concept or this situation given how bad the game was at this point as Jacksonville was down 30 points. But consistent misses like this are very concerning. And of the 34 quarterbacks that have at least 40 drop backs through 3 games – Trevor ranks 33rd in completion percentage and the only quarterback he’s ahead of is Anthony Richardson. PFF has a stat called adjusted completion percentage which factors in drops and throwaways – so this would help Trevor considering how many drops he’s had through the first few games – but even then he goes from 33rd to 32nd – and the only two players he’s above – are you guessed it – Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson.
The Jags offensive line has also been very disappointing through the first few games – and Trevor was sacked 4 times against Buffalo. But one of the most frustrating plays from the Bills game – was a sack Trevor took that was completely unnecessary. It was in the 4th quarter with the game long out of reach – but the Jags are running a levels concept with Brian Thomas Jr as the hot route on the drag and there’s so much wrong with this play. Brian Thomas goes in motion pre snap and nobody follows him on the defense – and you can clearly see the Bills shift on the right side – giving every indication this is going to be some sort of zone coverage pre snap. Now what I find most concerning about this is Trevor obviously knows where every receiver is going post snap – yet spins into nothing in the middle of the play – then tries to go out the backside where – again – he knows nobody is going to be because no receiver is going to the left side and takes a terrible sack – when the drag was open the entire time. This play specifically screams that there is a lot of problems everywhere in the offense. It’s not just a Press Taylor thing, it’s not just an offensive line thing, and it’s not just receivers dropping passes. It’s everywhere. The other big play from this game that was concerning was the interception thrown to Damar Hamlin. It was awesome that Damar made the interception and that was a very cool moment – and that is where the focus of the play should have been at that time. But guys – from the Jags perspective – this was a play that should have went for 25 or 30 yards and should have been a big chunk to play to try and cut into the 20-3 deficit at the time.
The game wasn’t out of reach at this point, and Trevor flat out overthrows Brian Thomas Jr. Brian Thomas isn’t a 5’6 Darren Sproles out there either. He’s 6’3 and is in the 77th percentile for his height at the receiver position. I understand Jags fans have been critical of the offensive play calling and I get it – but this was a good clear out route by Devin Duvernay to free BTJ on the over – and it was a colossal miss from Trevor. Whether the quarterback is Trevor Lawrence, Mitch Trubisky, CJ Stroud – whoever – this is truly as NFL open as it gets – and it was overthrown by 5 yards. And what’s also limited the Jags offensively this year is how bad Trevor has been in the intermediate part of the field. He is just 8/24 for 133 yards with a touchdown and an interception on throws from 10 to 19 yards from the line of scrimmage – which is unacceptable. Out of 33 quarterbacks in this range – Trevor is tied for 31st with Justin Herbert and is ahead of only rookie quarterback Bo Nix – meaning yes – even Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young have been better through this area of the field.
There are 12 quarterbacks who have completed over 60% of their passes between 10 yards and 19 yards from the line of scrimmage – and just 4 – who have completed less than 40% of their passes – with Trevor of course being one of them. So when you sit back and think about how the Jags should start over – it’s very tricky because they just gave Trevor a substantial contract. But in order to start over – I think it has to start with the departure of Doug Peterson. And the Jags play in Houston in week 4 – and I would be surprised if they win this game – and I think an 0-4 start is inevitable. I don’t know if Doug would be fired after an 0-4 start – but their ensuing games are against Indy, Chicago, and New England – all of which are winnable
I would be kind of surprised if the Jags were eventually 3-4 – but the question that we ask any team looking to take a step in the AFC – and looking to throw their weight around with the big dogs in the conference is – can they realistically compete with a Kansas City or Buffalo when it matters? And as we saw in week 3 – no Jacksonville absolutely cannot compete with the big dogs when it matters. Not even close. From the aspect of the Jags failing Trevor – there’s a lot to breakdown and obviously his 2021 season was awful – and we all know that – but it’s been bleak since then too. Full transparency – I was all for the Christian Kirk signing when it was made – even despite how much they paid him because of how bad the Jags team was in 2021. During Trevor’s rookie season – his top 3 leading receivers were Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Laquon Treadwell.
And that situation was so bad entering 2022 – that really any player would have been an upgrade with what the Jags had in 2021. So yes, they overpaid Christian Kirk relative to the production he was going to bring. But it’s because they were in such a desperate situation to begin with – that that’s what they were forced to do. The 2022 draft was one I’ll never quite understand with what the Jags gameplay was – as it was clear – nearly everyone – that Aidan Hutchinson was a really really good prospect and was the best pass rusher in the draft. Unfortunately it was not clear to Trent Baalke and he selected a height weight speed prospect number one overall in Travon Walker. Travon will be around the league for a long long time – and teams will absolutely keep him around. But in fairness – he should have never been a number one overall pick. And I don’t think the Jags would be legit Super Bowl contenders with the pass rushing duo of Josh Hines-Allen and Aidan Hutchinson – but it’s just one example of such a simple decision that this franchise got wrong. And this decision specifically plays into why they need to start over. There’s also been several questionable decisions in the draft that I didn’t understand at the time – and I still don’t to this day.
One of my least favorite selections the Jags have made over the past few years was drafting Brenton Strange at the end of the second round. I watched Brenton over his final two years at Penn State and was hoping for Brenton – that he would be an early to mid day 3 selection. I certainly didn’t think he would be a 2nd round pick and taken just 8 spots before Tank Dell – who of course plays for the division rival Texans. And the 2023 Jags draft is not a good class 20 games in. I think Anton Harrison is on his way to being a draft disappointment and it shows time and time again – and I also think that plays into Trevor losing his confidence over the past several games – but even after that – Tank Bigsby being your 3rd round pick was again questionable – considering they had just invested a first round pick in Travis Etienne – although Bigsby has been fine in 2024.
But after that it’s tough. They had 13 total selections and 5 of them were after pick 200 – so I don’t really fault any of those players for being serious contributors – but outside of Antonio Johnson and Tank Bigsby – there hasn’t been a lot of contribution from this class – at least meaningful contribution. There was a lot of concern when the Jags hired Trent Baalke to be their general manager – and a couple of years later – this is why. The roster has under performed, the draft picks haven’t been great – and you have a former number one overall pick that’s already a trivia question as to who the 2022 number one pick was – when Aidan Hutchinson was staring you right in the face.
The Jacksonville Jaguars Need To Start Over Youtube Video Can Be Found Here:
