NFL Week 6 opens up with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers are listed 3 point road favorites, while the total sits at 47.5 points.
Both teams are coming off of a loss, while Seattle is coming off of two straight losses. Seattle lost in week 4 to Detroit with a score of 42-29, and lost at home in a shocker in week 5 to the Giants with a score of 29-20. This game will be Seattle’s third game in 11 days and that’s notable because that’s going to play into the strategy of our plays in this game
Jordan Mason over 80.5 rushing yards is the first play and it’s one that I like a lot. He’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry on the season and the lowest amount of rushing yards he’ had in a single game is 77. He’s went for over 100 yards in three of the first five games of the year, and he had over 120 rushing yards in two of those five games. Seattle has allowed 100 rushing yards or more in four of their five games and the only game they didn’t allow 100 rushing yards was against the patriots who have a very bad offensive line. When you factor in this is Seattle’s third game in 11 days. I think San Francisco will want to try and wear them down over the course of the game – meaning Jordan Mason is going to get a lot of touches and this is another reason why I love over 80.5 rushing yards.
My expectation is for Jordan Mason to get the football a lot in this game and because of that I don’t think Deebo Samuel is going to receive many targets. Brandon Aiyuk had a big game in week five and after his slump to start the year, I definitely think he is back. I also think George Kittle will receive a plethora of targets and I don’t think this is going to be a big Deebo game. Every game the 49ers play one receiver is the odd man out and I think this Thursday night game is going to be Deebo’s time to be the odd man out. And because of this, I think he will go under 53.5 receiving yards.
I don’t think Seattle is going to win this game but they are going to have to move the football and one way they are going to be able to do that is to throw the football to DK Metcalf. DK is having a great season and he has three 100 yard receiving games out of five to start the season and we are taking an alternate line for him to go over 69 1/2 receiving yards. This is a higher payout and I think DK will continue to have a good year and I think this is a good value play. I also think there’s a decent chance he goes over 100 yards for the 4th time in 6 games.
The final play is Jason Myers over 7.5 kicking points. This would rely on the Seahawks getting at least two field goals and I don’t think Seattle is going to get the ball into the end zone. I think there’s a chance they get the ball down to San Francisco’s 20 or 25 yard line and put themselves in a situation where it’s a little too far to go for it on 4th down. This would leave them with one outcome and that would be to kick the football. We Took Younghoe Koo’s kicking over points last week and that cashed, and I really like taking kickers over on Thursday nights because more often than not – they’re lower scoring games games.
A $10 entry using this lineup would pay $128.10 on Underdog. New users who use code “GFB” get up to $1,000 in bonus cash. There’s also a play where if Brock Purdy has over 0.5 yards – it cashes! This can be found on Underdog only when you sign up using code “GFB”. Let’s have a Thursday https://t.co/smsbUhi29L
