Every player on every NFL team has some sort of expectation heading into each and every season. Whether it’s to be a gunner on special teams, or to be the 5th corner on a team that finishes 4-13, or to be an MVP candidate at quarterback – every player has a goal entering each year. And there’s time in players careers where guys can take a step up and become the guy the franchise wanted them to be all along. Or the opposite – they fail to live up to the once lofty expectations and who they are as an NFL player takes a turn in the wrong direction. And in today’s video we’re going to discuss 4 players who were drafted pretty high – yet have failed to live up to the expectations of the franchise that selected them. We’re going to discuss how we got here, what the team should expect of them in 2025, and what their realistic goals should be entering the new league year. And there is a lot to breakdown in today’s video and without further ado – let’s begin
And we are starting today’s video with Bengals pass rusher Myles Murphy. Myles Murphy was selected in the first round back in the 2023 draft as he was the 28th overall selection. In two years he’s played pretty sparingly as he has 0 career starts while logging a little over 650 total snaps. When he’s played he’s been alright but there hasn’t been a whole lot to write home about for Murphy and that’s a big reason why he makes today’s video. Another reason of course is the recent retirement of former Bengals pass rusher Sam Hubbard. Obviously everyone knows how good of a player Trey Hendrickson is – and everyone also knows how the Bengals run their organization – which for Bengals fans is frustrating. What I mean by this is not paying players immediately and getting themselves in a situation where they are currently with Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Trey Hendrickson. And at the time I am recording this video – the Bengals have granted Trey Hendrickson permission to seek a trade.
And if the Bengals choose to trade Trey Hendrickson – replacing him is not going to be easy as Hendrickson is coming off of not just one 17.5 sack seasons – but back to back 17.5 sack seasons and has made the pro bowl in each of his first 4 years in Cincinnati. Whether or not Trey Hendrickson is a Bengal in 2025 – to me – doesn’t matter pertaining to Myles Murphy because it’s now or never for the former first round pick. Now if Hendrickson does get traded – obviously that would amplify the situation for Murphy and the Bengals for a few reasons – but he has to produce this year regardless. Trey Hendrickson had 83 pressures in 2024 – which was tied with Myles Garrett for you guessed it – first in the NFL. After Hendrickson – the second leader in pressures for the Bengals in 2024 was BJ Hill with 32. And then after that in order it was Joseph Ossai with 31, Myles Murphy with 20, and Sam Hubbard with 18 to round out the top 5. So needless to say it was Trey Hendrickson carrying the Bengals defense in 2024 – which would be an extreme understatement. And after Hendrickson’s 17.5 sacks – the leading sack getters for the Bengals were Ossai with 5, BJ Hill and Kris Jenkins each with 3, and Sam Hubbard with 2 to round out the top 5. When it is put like this – I think it’s pretty simple that the Bengals should pay Trey Hendrickson – but somebody else needs to step up in Cincinnati and I think it’s Myles Murphy’s time. Unfortunately, Murphy did not have a sack in 2024 – but he had 20 pressures on 215 pass rushing snaps and actually had the second highest pass rush win rate on the team. Myles is entering his third season, but he was drafted as a 21 year old rookie back in 2023 and given what we know about how the Bengals run their franchise – I think the plan was always for Myles Murphy to eventually replace Sam Hubbard. I think even the Bengals were surprised Sam Hubbard retired – but after a year in which he had just 2 sacks and a year where a lot of fans were frustrated with the lack of production from Sam Hubbard – this is the perfect opportunity for Myles Murphy to step up and show that he can be a legitimate pass rusher in the NFL and to meet at the quarterback. I wouldn’t expect too much from a stat sheet standpoint – but if Myles can generate 45 or 50 pressures – as a regular starter – and have 6-8 sacks in 2025 at 23 years old – then there’s something there to work with. Myles has only played a little over 650 career snaps and we haven’t seen him play on a down by down basis like other former first round picks. If he were to receive 450 pass rushing snaps in 2025 – then he would have registered 41 pressures based on his performance in 2024. And for reference – 33 players registered 450 or more pass rushing snaps last year. The plan was for Myles to be a rotational guy early on, and to eventually develop into a starter – and 2025 should be Myles Murphy’s big chance
Next up is tight end Michael Mayer. Michael Mayer was a highly regarded prospect coming out of Notre Dame in the 2023 draft and was selected at number 36 overall by the Las Vegas Raiders. Mayer had a little over 300 receiving yards in his rookie season and had just 2 touchdowns and I was a little underwhelmed with Michael Mayer in his rookie year because I thought he was a guy that could come in and have 5 or 600 yards from the start. From a sheer numbers perspective – not a play style perspective – I thought he could have the impact of a Pat Freiermuth who had 60 receptions in each of the first two years of his career. But he didn’t. Now it is worth noting Mayer played in 11 of 17 games in 2024 and missed some time due to a personal matter and I’m not going to speculate or judge Michael Mayer for missing time. That is his business, and as a human being – I respect his decision and hope everything is okay with him personally and that everything is alright off the field. Now from a football standpoint – he did come back later in the year and had a 68 yard game against the Bucs in week 14. I don’t think it’s a matter of him not having the ability to play at the NFL level – and I don’t think that’s ever been the case with Mayer – it’s simply been a matter of opportunity. There’s always a domino effect with the NFL draft and I am a firm believer that not just the Raiders – but several NFL teams thought there would be a quarterback that would fall in the 2024 draft. Maybe not all the way to the second round like Will Levis did in 2023 – but definitely further than pick 12 which was where the 6th quarterback was taken in Bo Nix. And the reason we bring this up is because everyone was shocked the Falcons took Michael Penix at number 8 overall – and I mean everyone. Not just analysts – but teams too. And I think this domino effect affected the Raiders because I truly think their plan was to take whichever quarterback was available out of the remaining 3 in Michael Penix, JJ McCarthy or Bo Nix – knowing Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye were all going in the top 3. But when they weren’t available for the Raiders at pick 13 – that changed things in a big way because they had to take a player and the only question was who. The best tight end prospect since Kyle Pitts was available at pick 13 in Brock Bowers and that’s ultimately who the Raiders selected. Which of course affected Michael Mayer.
With Brock Bowers having the rookie season he did – you know – an all time rookie season from the tight end position if you will – it naturally caused a lot of people to wonder about Michael Mayer’s future with the team. He will play the 2025 season at just 24 years old and I think there is a good chance he gets moved this offseason. And I also think this is a golden opportunity for a team like the Eagles to trade for Mayer – knowing Dallas Goedert is 30 years old and knowing he will eventually need replaced. This situation would remind me a lot of the Zach Ertz Dallas Goedert situation they encountered back in 2018. Regardless if Mayer gets traded or not this offseason – 2025 is a now or never year for him because he still has a lot of believers at this point in time. But if he plays 14 or more games this year and has another stat line of something around 25 receptions for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns – similar to what he had in his rookie year – then he’s going to be in the draft disappointment bucket and have to fight that label the rest of his career. I still believe in Michael Mayer and am wishing him the best in 2025 and beyond
Within the video linked below we discuss Myles Murphy, Michael Mayer, and in addition to those two – Xavier Legette, and Anthony Richardson. I hope you enjoy and hope you have a great rest of your day!
