Overview
Want to know the biggest gem nearly no one talks about? Michigan State’s reputation for developing NFL running backs continues with Nathan Carter. The 5’9, 200-pound star is going criminally under the radar. This article will break down the good, the bad, and the ugly with Michigan State’s newest product.
The Good
For a prospect who did not even get a combine invite, there is an insane amount of positives for Carter.
First, his vision is nearly top-of-the-class. The former Spartan combines decisiveness and quick-twitch reactivity to make a lethal blend for defenses to fear.
Second, Carter has a nasty stiff arm. He sheds contact like it is nothing, and sure, a lot of college defenders cannot tackle at the level NFL defenders can, but this skillset translates. The Michigan State product deployed a multitude of moves- most effectively that patented stiff arm-on every single level of the defense. That is not impossible, but what if I told you that was against Michigan? Yeah, it was versus Michigan, too.
Lastly, Carter is a phenomenal athlete. His outting at the Michigan Pro Day yielded some ludicrous results: a 4.40-second 40-yard dash, 40-inch vertical jump, 1008 (10 feet, 8 inch) broad jump, and 23 bench-press reps. Carter’s overall RAS ended up being 9.13, which is phenomenal when combined with his production vs top-end talent.
The Bad
It is not all rainbows and butterflies, unfortunately. The Michigan State product is not being taken round one for a reason.
First, his blocking is not at the level one would want for a running back on third downs. He has solid receiving ability, but the offense will be limited in terms of utilizing him as a protector in certain third-down scenarios.
Second, Carter’s 10-yard split was not ideal at 1.58 seconds. Now, it is far from bad, but there is a key difference between his explosiveness and straight-line acceleration that could be an issue if a defender is in pursuit, and he has to accelerate to beat them to the boundary. Again, 1.58 is far from bad, but compared to the other testing numbers, it is a letdown.
Lastly, and most importantly, Michigan State lacked competitiveness this year. This is not necessarily on the running back, but obviously, there is some responsibility placed on that position.
The Ugly
There is one ‘ugly’ aspect of Carter’s draft profile- his (lack of) recent production. While the talent stands out, he only had one game this year with over 100 yards (granted that was against Michigan). Michigan State rarely gave him over ten touches, which explains it, but that still plays a major factor when it comes to draft day, and many other products have far more production with similar talent level. That could be the difference in Carter going as high as day two to going undrafted.
In Conclusion
Overall, the Michigan State product will be an incredible value selection on draft day. Carter has nearly all of the tools one could ask for from a day-three running back. The blend of explosiveness, vision, and ability to break tackles provides a floor any team would dream of. While a lack of production will scare teams away from the Spartan early, seeing his ability to dominate against the most challenging defense he faced this year should quell some of those concerns. Time will show whether Carter is a big steal or a big whiff, but I feel confident in his ability not only to stick to a team but also to get legitimate touches.
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