Picking first overall in the NFL Draft is an honor.. that no franchise wants to have. Is it fun to have your pick of the litter? Sure. Is it a potential bargaining chip that gives the lucky recipient the keys to the offseason? Absolutely. However, this isn’t the NFL or NBA. Your fate isn’t tied to a ping-pong ball in a rolling cage. You’ve got to be BAD to come out on top.
The only thing worse than being awarded the first overall pick (besides being a QB-needy team that is just good enough to pick second overall) is getting predicted to be in the running for the pick a year ahead. Barring a miracle or the ultra-rare Cinderella season, you know you are in for a painful four-month experience.
The NFL is a quarterback league. There’s a reason the position is by far the wealthiest, and it’s because teams live and die by their quarterback. That is also why you’ll often see the most QB-needy teams picking near the top of the draft. There are certainly exceptions to that rule, as coaching and the overall talent across a roster also play a role. However, QB play is a predictor of how a team will perform in a coming season.
While the QB play will be questionable (or at the very least uncertain) for every team projected to finish near the cellar of their division, their respective situations vary significantly.
Cleveland Browns
There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Browns this season. Everyone will be watching Shaduer Sanders, but I’m not sure he will even get a shot to play this year. In fact, with the ghost of Deshaun Watson, Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco, and third-round selection Dillon Gabriel on the roster, I’m not entirely convinced he will even make the 53-man roster.
Watson is expected to miss the ’25 season after suffering a torn Achilles late last year, and I’m sure it will be a wide-open competition behind him. I’m not sure he will miss (or be missed) much though.
You know what they say.. When you have a wealth of depth at the QB position, you probably don’t have one you can count on. It’s far too early to rule out Sanders or Gabriel as a potential starter, but I wouldn’t bet on either of them providing anything of substance this year.
They have a lot of talent on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, but their logjam at the QB spot will probably sink them. Cleveland is all but certain to finish in the cellar of the talented AFC North and could be in prime position to add a more qualified signal-caller at the top of the draft next year.
New Orleans Saints
Speaking of uncertainty at the QB position, the Saints are also taking a shotgun approach to the QB position. While the Browns’ aim may have been questionable, they at least used effective ammunition. New Orleans seemingly preferred to use buckshot.
Cleveland targeted two veterans who have shown the ability to at least keep their heads above water in Flacco and Pickett (this is the nicest compliment I will ever give him), while New Orleans is going into the season relatively blind. In their defense, they might not have known that Derek Carr would hang up the cleats this offseason, but their QB room doesn’t inspire any confidence.
They added University of Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough to a QB room featuring unknown commodities in Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. That’s not great, and it becomes even more alarming when you consider that their defense isn’t good enough to allow the team to play complimentary football. They will probably be playing from behind often, and things could quickly get ugly in the Bayou.
New York Giants
Are you noticing a theme? Because you definitely should be. The Giants have one of the most unintentionally (Russell Wilson) and intentionally (Jameis Winston) hilarious QB rooms in NFL history. Then they added a first-round pick born and raised in Utah (named Jaxson Dart) to top it all off.
All jokes aside, I think the Giants did a great job navigating the QB waters this offseason. They landed a quality stop-gap option in Wilson and a solid backup plan if Wilson plays like he did last year in Winston and then traded back into the first round to land Dart, which will eventually allow them to cash in on the fifth-year option if things go well. I honestly have no idea who will be under center by Week Eight, but I’m excited to watch the ride.
Besides a few question marks along the offensive line, they are loaded across the board. In fact, they should have one of the better defenses in the league after overhauling the unit this offseason. I know what you might be thinking – You’ve sung their praises to this point- Why might they finish with the league’s worst record?
Well, they got slapped with the most difficult schedule, and it doesn’t look very close on paper. Two of their ‘easiest’ matchups have them on the road against two of this offseason’s most improved teams in the Bears and Patriots. They’re talented enough to stick around in a lot of these games, but I don’t think they’ll have the chops to come out on top in many of them.
Tennessee Titans
There is reason to believe the Titans have finally found their answer at the QB position in Cam Ward. It’s easy to see shades of Steve McNair when watching the athletic gunslinger, and it’s fair to wonder whether they saw those parallels throughout the draft process.
The Titans did a good job of improving the talent on the offensive side of the ball this offseason, but growing pains should still be expected for the rookie signal caller. While we’ve seen some QBs take the league by storm in recent years, it’s important to remember they are the exception to the rule. It would be naive to expect that type of impact from Ward.
The fact that the Titans have the eighth-toughest schedule won’t be doing them any favors this year. Likewise, neither have the schedule makers, as I could legitimately see them being 1-8 going into their Bye in November. The road ahead is going to be bumpy for Tennessee.
Indianapolis Colts
I’m clearly not high on the AFC South this year. Anthony Richardson has been a complete disappointment through his first two years. In fact, you could make a strong case that he was the worst QB in the NFL last season (his league-worst 58% on-target throw percentage and 28% bad throw percentage would support that claim).
Richardson might’ve won games (he was 6-5 as a starter), but he was never the reason they were winning games. Joe Flacco might’ve lost games (he was 2-4), but he was significantly better at running the offense when he was active. He’s not there anymore, as he was replaced with the calming veteran presence of… Daniel Jones this offseason. That’s who will take the field whenever Richardson wants to sit out a few plays.
The Colts should have one of the better defenses in the league after making some much-needed improvements to the secondary this offseason. They lost a few starters along the offensive line this offseason but the core has remained intact (and relatively elite). They also have a quality group of weapons. I’m just not sure about the guy throwing them the ball, and, if you can’t tell at this point, that matters a lot to me.
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