With only four weeks in the regular season, we know the majority of playoff teams. Nine franchises are officially out of the playoff race, and more will follow after Week 15. The Bengals and Vikings technically can still have hope, but both could be eliminated even with a win. The Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens are in contention, but will need to play way better and depend on others. The Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers can still fight for their division, but with the 7th seed in the NFC currently 9-4, a wild-card berth will be tough.
Although the only way to win a Super Bowl is to make the playoffs, not every playoff team is a contender. A poorly-timed injury can derail a team. Playing better teams in a high-pressure situation is different than playing a normal regular-season game. And sometimes your luck will just run out, like the 2022 Minnesota Vikings.
With that out of the way, who are the candidates to win it all?
#14: Pittsburgh Steelers
Dec 7, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (24) reacts after a defensive stop against the Baltimore Ravens during the second half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images
Even after an important win against the Ravens, I don’t think they make the playoffs. Even if they do, it looks like it’ll be another first-round exit. They have a strong defensive line and playmakers in the secondary, so you can’t disregard them. But the offense has been bad. Rodgers showed signs of age. The decision to trade Pickens gets worse every week. Their run game is one of the worst in the NFL. It’d need a vintage game from Aaron Rodgers and a phenomenal game from the defense for them to make the Divisional Round.
#13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dec 7, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks to throw downfield during the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
I’m old enough to remember when the Bucs were considered favorites to win the NFC and Mayfield was an MVP candidate. After easily beating the Saints and improving to 6-2, they fell off a cliff. They lost three in a row, including a beating from the Rams, and also lost at home to the Saints this Sunday. This atrocious sequence put a huge dent in a season that started so well. Tied with the Panthers and with the two yet to play, they aren’t even a lock to make the playoffs.
#12: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are a wild team. They are atop the AFC South with a 9-4 record and a four-game winning streak. They beat the Chiefs, 49ers, and Texans earlier in the year. But they also fumbled the game against the Joe Burrow-less Bengals and got demolished by the Rams. All of this makes them unpredictable, which I think is fun. This being the first year of an HC-GM duo makes for an excellent building block, but 2025 may be too early for them.
#11: Los Angeles Chargers
Dec 8, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers safety Tony Jefferson (23) intercepts a pass intended for Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jahan Dotson (2) in overtime at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
A healthy Chargers would be higher. Heck, a healthy Chargers could be fighting for the #1 seed. But they are playing without their two tackles. And we saw against the Eagles what this means. Their defense is playing at a very high level, and Jesse Minter will probably be a head coach in 2026. Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal give them a strong 1-2 punch in the running game, which helps Justin Herbert a lot. The question is how much you trust their offensive line in January.
#10: Chicago Bears
The 2025 Chicago Bears remind me a lot of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. A first-year offensive guru at head coach. Problems that fly under the radar because the team is winning. A whole lot of close games against bad teams that shouldn’t be close. One huge away win against a Super Bowl contender. This season is very positive for the Bears, and not just because they have a winning record for the first time in seven years. But also because, in his first year, Ben Johnson helped Caleb Williams a lot. He still isn’t an MVP-level player, but now we can see a clear path to it. The Bears are better than the Jaguars, but the same can be said here. 2025 is probably too soon for them.
#9: Houston Texans
Dec 7, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Houston Texans cornerback Kamari Lassiter (4) intercepts a pass intended for Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Hollywood Brown (5) during the fourth quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
The Texans have been through a roller-coaster this season. They started 0-3, looked lost at a point in the season, lost C.J. Stroud for a couple of games, and everything felt bleak. However, winning five games in a row has the power to give a team hope. Especially when this sequence involves victories against the Bills, a healthy Colts, and the Chiefs. Their defense is playing lights out, with the defensive line mauling opponents, and a secondary that nullifies wide receivers, thanks in huge part to Derek Stingley. Their defense will give them a chance against anyone in the playoffs; it’ll be up to the offense to make the most of it.
#8: Philadelphia Eagles
Dec 8, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) hurdles Los Angeles Chargers safety RJ Mickens (27) in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Still with an elite roster and the reigning champions, you can argue that the Eagles are too low. But vibes are really weird in Philadelphia. Even when they were 8-2 and life was easy, something was off. The offense wasn’t the same, and locker room problems started to surface. Dropping three in a row, the Eagles let the Cowboys come back to the NFC East race, and part of the fanbase is having PTSD from 2023. You have to respect a team with so many star players, but something is off.
#7: Buffalo Bills
With Mahomes, Jackson, and Burrow probably out of the way, the Bills should look poised to make the Super Bowl. But the team showed the need for a retool. You will never rebuild when you have Josh Allen, but 2025 can be a huge missed opportunity for the Bills. The offense can’t rely on anyone besides Allen and James Cook. Allen is on pace to be sacked 40 times, a career-high. No receiver can consistently create separation. And the defense, which should be Sean McDermott’s strong suit, is mid at best. They will have to face at least one very good defense in the playoffs, and you can’t say they have the firepower to beat one.
#6: Denver Broncos
Dec 7, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) carries the ball for a touchdown as Las Vegas Raiders linebacker Devin White (45) defends during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Speaking of the devil, no one wants to face this defense. It’s a loaded front seven that can still break the ’84 Bears sack record (72). Pat Surtain is arguably the best cornerback in the NFL. Their combo of aggressiveness up front and coverage ability in the back end is rare. The reason they’re not higher is the offense. I just can’t trust a team that almost didn’t beat the Raiders because their offense couldn’t do anything. They can hold any offense down, but how confident are we that they can put up points against the Texans, for example?
#5: New England Patriots
Dec 1, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) runs the ball against New York Giants safety Dane Belton (24) during the fourth quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images
Yes, the Patriots have had one of the easiest schedules in NFL history. But you can’t blame them for that. They have easily disposed of most of the teams in their way. Drake “Drake Maye” Maye is playing at an MVP level. Their running game improved a lot since TreVeyon Henderson entered the lineup (big surprise, huh). Their defense is a brick wall against the run, a big reason why they are among the best on 3rd and 4th down. Mike Vrabel is an amazing coach, and I doubt they get out-coached in the playoffs.
#4: Green Bay Packers
Another team that could and should be higher, but it’s very inconsistent. They’ve had impressive games, particularly inside the NFC North, but also some very bad ones. They lost to the Browns, tied with the Cowboys when Dallas was still figuring stuff out, almost lost to the Cardinals, and lost to the Panthers at home. Much of the blame falls on the offense, which still lacks a clear WR1, and it only got worse after Tucker Kraft’s injury. They have a game-changer in Micah Parsons and a strong running game to rely on, but I’m not sure if Jordan Love can step up when needed.
#3: Seattle Seahawks
Dec 7, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
I’m fairly confident the Super Bowl champion will come out of the NFC West. The Seahawks are the one I’m least confident in, though (albeit still high on them). They have an elite, and probably underrated, defense, with playmakers at every level. Their offense is explosive, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba having a breakout year. Rashid Shaheed’s trade gave them more speed on the outside and a high-level returner. But their offensive line, playing against the likes of the Rams, 49ers, Packers, and Eagles, isn’t a favorable matchup. And it may be the Vikings fan in me, but I don’t know how well Darnold will perform under the lights. In two of their losses, he had the chance to go down the field and win the game, but turned the ball over both times. They were a missed field goal away from beating the Rams, but Darnold threw four interceptions in that game.
#2: San Francisco 49ers
Nov 30, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) and San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings (15) celebrate after a play during the second half against the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
I don’t know why, but I feel the 49ers are being slept on this season. They had their usual injury bug, but remained competitive. Their pass-rush took a big hit without Nick Bosa, as they’re last in sacks and pressure %. Still, with Robert Saleh back as the defensive coordinator, they are eighth in points allowed. With Fred Warner eyeing an unlikely comeback for the playoffs, the unit could have a big boost. Their offense is what surprises me the most, though. Even with Brock Purdy missing 5 games, George Kittle out for six games, and Ayiuk not playing this season, they remained afloat. The 2025 season is a testament to Kyle Shanahan’s abilities as a head coach, even if few people are noticing.
#1: Los Angeles Rams
I don’t like to bet, but if I had to, I’d put money on the Rams winning it all. They have everything right now. The offense puts up points at ease. Their running game is above average. I’ll be pissed if Matt Stafford isn’t the MVP. Davante Adams is a touchdown machine. Puka Nacua missed one game and is still first in catches and second in yards. Chris Shula’s defense is a terrific unit with a menacing defensive line. Sean McVay is the best head coach in the NFL. Every Single Sunday is a thing, but the Rams will be the hands-down favorites when January rolls around.
