The Jacksonville Jaguars finished the 2023 season with a 9-8 record ad missed the playoffs after a year in 2022 in which they not only won the division – but won a playoff game in a dramatic come from behind victory over the Los Angeles Chargers as they won with a score of 31-30 before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs in the divisional round of the playoffs. On the surface – a 9-8 record isn’t bad for most teams – and in fact – Jacksonville has back to back seasons with a 9-8 record. But 2023 was a disappointing season for the Jags not just because they finished with a 9-8 record – but because of how they got there. They started the year 8-3 and after beating the eventual division champion Texans in week 12 and avenging their week 3 loss in which Houston went into Jacksonville and beat them by 20 – well there was a brief point in time where Jacksonville was the number one seed in the AFC. But that time was shortly lived as they would go on to lose 5 of their final 6 games and miss the playoffs entirely. Their lone win came over the Carolina Panthers who of course had the worst record in the league. The Jags were pretty active this offseason and made a lot of moves to try and improve on 9 wins and to be able to make a deep postseason run. And for the sake of GM Trent Baalke, and head coach Doug Pederson – the Jags need to produce. And now. And in today’s video we will breakdown what to expect from the 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars. Now let’s begin
And we are starting today’s video by breaking down what the Jags did in free agency and then addressing their defense. The Jags had one 1,000 yard receiver in 2023 – though they had 3 guys with 750 or more yards – but the lone 1,000 yard receiver was Calvin Ridley. Calvin is a solid receiver – not an elite receiver – and it was unfortunate the Titans opted to pay Calvin $23 million dollars per year over the course of 4 years and the Jags were left with nothing – and they had to sign Gabe Davis. I can’t imagine that was the initial plan entering the offseason – but aside from signing Gabe Davis – they signed other vets like Erik Armstead, Darnell Savage, Mitch Morse, Devin Duvernay, and Ronald Darby. And we will focus on the Arik Armstead signing first which was a move I absolutely loved for the Jags. GM Trent Balke has been around the league for a while – and he absolutely has a type with defensive lineman and edge rushers. He loves players along the trenches that are 90% or better in height, weight, and arm length and given he drafted Armstead back in 2015 as the GM of the 49ers – it didn’t surprise me at all Jacksonville went after him. Side note – I also think the Jags would have traded a first round pick for Deforest Buckner – another one of Ballke’s first round picks in San Francisco – had he been the GM of the Jags throughout the 2020 draft process. But by adding Armstead – Jacksonville got stronger with their front 4 and added a player who will generate a lot of pressure from the interior – which is especially critical in today’s NFL – while getting him for a pretty good price. And in fact – I like their front 4 a lot heading into the 2024 season and the Jags front 4 – more so than a lot of other teams – is going to be critical for their team success this year. Obviously every team needs their front 4 to be at least serviceable, but Jacksonville will really really need their front 4 to step up if they are going to go to at least the divisional round of the playoffs – like they did two years ago. And heading into the 2024 regular season – I don’t neccesarily think it’s a true Super Bowl or bust for the Jags this year – but for the future of the coaching staff and front office – I 100% think it’s a divisional round or bust for the sake of their jobs. And one thing that scares me with the 2024 Jags is their secondary. This was already a unit that wasn’t great in 2023 – and didn’t improve a whole lot this offseason either. I know they signed Darnell Savage from Green Bay this offseason but I don’t think Savage is a reliable player by any means. He misses his fair share of tackles, he has lapses in coverage at times, and he will have multiple gams in a row where he’s either consistently getting beat, or not playing to the level he has throughout other times in his career. To simply put it – he is an inconsistent player and you never know which guy you’re going to get when they walk off the bus each Sunday. And there was a reason his average annual value is at 16th in the league amongst safeties. Aside from Darnell Savage – I don’t have a lot of faith in veteran Ronald Darby at this point in his career as he is now on the wrong side of 30 – and will turn 31 at the end of the 2024 season. He has also played 16 games in a season just twice since 2017 – and I know Darby had a solid year for Baltimore last year and he hasn’t run into the wall corners do once they lose their physical ability that they have in their early 20’s – but corners to me are very similar to running backs – not as extreme of course with the decline in performance as they age – but to me – that is the position on defense that declines first. And heading into the season that’s a tall order for any 30+ year old corner. And after Darby – it gets thin at the position and quick.
The Jags corners after that are De’Antre Prince, Montaric Brown, Amani Oruwariye, and rookie Jarrian Jones. Like we mentioned during the Bucs team preview – which I recommend going to check out by the way – we discussed teams not wanting to run the ball against Tampa and going after their 2nd corner in 2024 as a key to success. And I think it will be much of the same against Jacksonville this year. For all the faults Trent Baalke has a GM – there’s a reason he likes the Travon Walker’s, Arik Armstead’s, and Deforest Buckner’s of the world. He loves guys that have the length to be able set the edge in the run game and be able to be the guys to set the tone in the trenches. No disrespect to Josh Allen is intended of course as he is without a doubt one of the most underrated players in all of football – but his arms are nowhere near as long as Travon’s and we all know Josh is a very good football player – but he is far from the Trent Baalke prototype. But the point is – I think Jacksonville will be better against the run this year and when you have those guys in your front 4 – along with Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd in the middle of the defense – well you are inviting opposing teams to throw the football. Not only is the pass rush going to have to get home early and often in 2024 for any team to have success at stopping opposing offenses – but it’s especially critical for Jacksonville due to how thin their secondary is. And I do think Jacksonville’s roster is solid – not elite by any means – but solid. And what I think is unfortunate for the Jags this year is how they start their season. Three of their first 4 games are on the road against premier AFC teams which include trips to Miami and Buffalo and of course – Houston. We will discuss Trevor Lawrence later in the video – who I think will be fine in the long run – but a lot of the Jags 2024 success will rely on their ability to limit opposing teams to having field days against their secondary. The Jags 2023 defense finished 8th in rushing attempts against despite finishing 16th in yards per carry allowed and a big reason for that was they finished 28th in passing attempts against. And the reason for that was simple. Teams would have rather tested Darious Williams or Devin Lloyd in coverage – then try and run on the outside against either of the edge rushers – or even right up the middle into the teeth of the Jags defense. And it’s going to be the exact same in 2024. Which is why it’s also a now or never year for 2022 number one overall pick Travon Walker. Travon had over 55 pressures last year and even had 10 sacks last year – but if Jacksonville is going to get back to where they were two years ago – a lot of players on the defense are going to have to step up – and ensure Jacksonville doesn’t give up 25 or more points in a game this year – as often as they did last year. And for what it’s worth – Jacksonville was 0-6 in those said games. One other big thing to note for the Jags sake entering the 2024 season – is – they did a good job last year of creating turnovers. They created 27 turnovers in 17 games and you can argue – they won them a few games last year alone – most notably the Atlanta game in which they had a momentum swinging pick 6 that killed any confidence Atlanta had before that. But they had 8 games last year where they forced multiple turnovers defensively and ranked 8th in the league by creating those 27 turnovers. Sustaining that high of a turnover rate in back to back years for any defense is going to be difficult – and this was for a defense that already finished in 17th in points allowed per game.
