The Indianapolis Colts finished the 2023 season with a 9-8 record and missed the playoffs for the third straight year. Despite missing the playoffs – it was a really solid year for them all things considered. They had their rookie quarterback go down early in the year and any time a team has their number one quarterback go down – especially early on – well more often than not that’s a death sentence. But even when the Colts backs were against the wall with a 3-5 record entering week 9 – their confidence never wavered. They won 6 of their final 9 games and were a week 18 loss against the Texans away from making the playoffs – all with a back up quarterback. What gets lost within the 2023 Colts season – is they still finished 10th in points per game – with a backup quarterback for most of the year. And this is a big reason why I’m so high on Anthony Richardson and the Colts entering 2024. They have a good running back, a good trio of receivers, a good offensive line, and to me – one of the most underrated coaches in the entire NFL. And as long as the defense can be serviceable – and not finish in the bottom 5 of the NFL in points allowed per game – like they did last year – well – the Indianapolis Colts are going to be a problem. And we’re going to break everything down in today’s video. Now let’s begin
The Indianapolis Colts overachieved in the 2023 season in a lot of ways. Their over under for wins before the season started was just 6.5 – which they demolished as they finished with 9 wins – they had a receiver go for over 1,100 yards in Michael Pittman and a rookie play pretty well in Josh Downs – and they had every reason to quit several times throughout the 2023 season – but they never did. And they kept fighting. And when you look at several of the losses the Colts suffered throughout last year – like the Saints game, like the Bengals game, or like the Falcons game – they gave up an enormous amount of points to teams that you wouldn’t think would have beat Indy in the manner they did when these teams played. I mean – these games were all double digit losses for the Colts and they loss in Cincinnati was particularly bad as they were beat by 20 points on the road. And that was also in a game where Indy could have improved to 8-5 – yet fell to 7-6. And there’s a big difference between 8-5 and 7-6 in the middle of December. But even with those few frustrating losses throughout the year – they still managed to have a winning record and for where they were in week 18 – to where they are now – well I thought the Colts improved quite a bit this offseason with what there goals were. A lot of the Colts prioritization this offseason was to keep guys in house – and they did as they brought back guys like Grover Stewart, Kenny Moore, Tyquan Lewis – who quietly had a really productive year for the Colts last year, and even Julian Blackmon. And there’s a reason they wanted to bring a lot of guys back – because – individually the Colts have a lot of good players on this defense. And they had 4 guys on the team have 8 o r more sacks last year which was huge – and believe it or not – the Colts finished 5th in the NFL in sacks as a team with 51 on the year. I am a big fan of the Colts defensive line and very much think how this unit plays in 2024 – is more or less how their season will go defensively. Deforest Buckner is one of the best defensive lineman in all of football and he has 50 or more pressures in 3 of his 4 years in Indy. But aside from Buckner and Stewart in the middle – they also have Samson Ebukam at edge – who came over from the 49ers during the 2023 offseason. And in his first year with the team – Ebukam played really well for the Colts and had nearly 50 pressures along with a team leading 9.5 sacks. He also had 17 quarterback hits and 10 tackles for a loss and overall – this was a tremendous signing for the Colts and I give a huge tip of the cap to Chris Ballard for making this move. Ebukam signed a 3 year $24 million dollar contract last offseason with nearly 11 of it being guaranteed and any time a player signs a contract like that – it’s not only a low risk high reward signing for the team – but if in the scenario the player does not work out – well the team can release without suffering too much of a financial hit in the process. But Ebukam played great in his first year with the Colts and I would expect much of the same in 2024 too. And what’s especially critical for not just the Colts – but for every other team in this division – is – you have to get after the quarterback. And often. And having 3 players register 40 or more pressures last year like they did was huge. The 3 of course were Ebukam, Buckner, and Tyquan Lewis.
And teams that have a good pass rush don’t just have one player – they have multiple guys who can get after the quarterback – which again – in the vaunted AFC – is a pre requisite for any sort of team success. The other starting defensive lineman for the Colts is Kwity Paye their 2021 first round pick from Michigan. Kwity is not a typical NFL pass rusher and while that may sound bad initially – it’s really not – he’s just a very unique player. Kwity is very stout in the run game – which is a huge plus by the way – but I have concerns with him as a long term option for the Colts. Now I know they opted to pick up his 5th year option and I know he is on the team through the 2025 season – but there’s a reason they selected Laitu Latu in the first round of the draft this year. And I really think it’s because they believe Latu is a better pass rushing option now than Kwity is entering year 4. We will break down Latu more during the rookie impact part of the video – but the point is – the Colts have one of my favorite front 4’s in all of football and they are very solid up front. What may surprise you is despite the Colts finishing 28th in points allowed per game last year – is they were pretty solid on a down to down basis against the run. They finished 10th in yards per carry as a defense last year but finished 24th in rushing yards allowed as a team. And I know that may seem contradicting to say they were good stopping the run on a down to down basis – but they finished 31st in rushing attempts against – meaning they had a positive difference in rushing attempts against and rushing attempts allowed. It would be bad if a team had the opposite – where teams didn’t run the ball as much against them – but were absolutely gashing them when they did – which would be a negative difference. One of the big reasons we bring this up is because I think that’s going to change in a big way in 2024 – is how teams choose to attack the Colts. During the months leading up to the draft – I mocked the Colts a corner in several mock drafts – most notably Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell because I thought corner was the number one need for this team entering the 2024 draft. As we know now they of course went with Laitu Latu in the first round and there was even a viral video of Chris Ballard laughing in joy saying we go the pass rusher in the draft. This point isn’t to scold the Latu pick – because I loved the selection and I think he is in a very good situation to succeed in – but the Colts corners aren’t exactly great heading into this year. Their top three corners are second year players Juju Brents, Jaylon Jones, and of course – Kenny Moore. And there was a reason the Colts were continuously mocked corners all throughout the draft process. Needless to say I was surprised they didn’t address the corner position until late on day 3 of the 2024 draft. I think that will inevitably lead to teams putting up a lot of points on Indy throughout the 2024 season especially when they play teams like the Texans, Bills, and Dolphins – all of which like to throw the football. Now to be clear I’m not going to scold the Colts or be disappointed they walked out of the 2024 draft with Latu and AD Mitchell – but I do worry about their corner depth for the upcoming season. and I would imagine most Colts fans do too. Placing all of your faith in a a second round and a 7th round corner from last year is very risky – which is a tremendous understatement.
I know defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will play a lot of cover 3 and that’s who he is as a play caller – but the Colts are going to need their front 7 to really get after the quarterback this year. Linebacker Zaire Franklin has back to back seasons with over 160 tackles and I expect him to be a beneficiary of the good defensive line play this year from a run game standpoint – meaning DEFO, Grover, and the gang take up blocks and play their gap which would then allow Franklin to stop running backs before they can hit the hole for a big gain. The biggest thing with the 2024 Colts defense is they can’t flat-out lose games for the team like they did at times throughout the 2023 season. I know Colts fans were upset with officiating in the Browns game specifically – but they did lose other games by double digits in which opposing teams put up 30 or more points – and they lost 4 of those games to be exact. And if the Colts defense can play even a little bit better with how good I think the offense will be throughout the 2024 season – then I really think this team can win a lot of games.
