Prime Video paid the least of any NFL broadcaster, roughly $1 billion a year for Thursday Night Football. This past season it delivered 122.09 million unique viewers, the most-watched TNF season in 20 years, up from 71.97 million in its 2022 debut. By every measure of market logic, Amazon earned the right to buy more games. Instead, federal investigations and political pressure have effectively frozen any expansion of the deal.
Fans Now Pay $1,500 a Year to Watch
May 7, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots first round draft pick Caleb Lomu is presented with a ceremonial first round jersey by team owner Robert Kraft (l) and team president Jonathan Kraft (r) at a press conference on the game field at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Natalie Reid-Imagn Images
Fans spent between $575 and $800 on streaming and cable subscriptions to watch every NFL game in 2025. FCC data puts the real number closer to $1,500 annually for complete legal access. Senator Tammy Baldwin put it plainly: “For Wisconsinites who want to follow all their favorite professional teams, it can cost you over $1,500 a year.” Games now scatter across NBC, CBS, Fox, ESPN, Prime Video, Peacock, Netflix, and YouTube, with each charging separately. The investigations framed as consumer protection have not lowered a single price.
One Dinner Changed Everything
Oct 10, 2019; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft talks with Rupert Murdoch before a game against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images
In February 2026, Fox Corporation owner Rupert Murdoch sat down with President Trump at the White House. His message was that streaming platforms acquiring more NFL games would destroy broadcast networks. Within weeks, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr advanced a public inquiry into sports broadcasting fragmentation. Shortly after, the DOJ opened an antitrust investigation into NFL media practices. Murdoch holds a roughly $2 billion annual NFL stake through Fox, and the federal agencies he triggered now protect that investment.
Networks Are Playing the Clock
May 9, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots cornerback Logan Collier (8) does a drill during the New England Patriots rookie camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
The NFL wanted new deals with all five broadcast partners before the September 2026 season, and that goal is almost certainly dead. Networks are stalling renegotiations, betting they can wait until 2029 opt-out clauses kick in for better leverage. CBS currently pays roughly $2.1 billion annually, and the NFL wants roughly $3 billion in exchange for eliminating the 2029 opt-out. Pushing ESPN’s roughly $2.7 billion deal up 50% would exceed $4 billion a year, which sources told SportsPro is “inconceivable” for Disney. ESPN’s current deal runs through 2033 with an opt-out in 2029, giving Disney real time to wait. Political uncertainty handed broadcasters the perfect excuse to delay.
The Streaming Door Is Already Open
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) tosses the ball during the first quarter in an NFL football AFC Wild Card playoff matchup, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. Bills lead 10-7 at the half over the Jaguars. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union]
The narrative that streamers are locked out ignores what is already happening. YouTube TV pays roughly $2 billion a year for NFL Sunday Ticket, which is streamer money flowing at broadcast-tier rates. Netflix signed a three-year Christmas Day NFL package in 2024 and has been delivering games ever since. Amazon reportedly generated over $1 billion in TNF advertising revenue in 2025, which is why the “cheapest deal” label is misleading in practice. Fragmentation is not a future threat, it is the current state of play.
The NBA Is Getting Paid More Per Game
May 11, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers center Jaxson Hayes (11) blocks the shot of Oklahoma City Thunder guard Ajay Mitchell (25) during the second half in game four of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
NBC pays approximately $2.5 billion annually for NBA rights, covering more than 100 games a season. For the NFL, NBC’s Sunday Night Football package is worth roughly $2 billion a year for about 18 games. That per-game gap infuriates NFL executives. The NBA’s new 11-year deal totals $76 billion, and the NFL is using that benchmark to push for richer terms. The NBA comparison is the pressure point few people outside boardrooms were tracking.
A Tripwire Nobody Can Step Around
Tennessee Titans players huddle up during the Titans Rookie Camp Day 1 at Vanderbilt Health Football Center in Nashville, Tenn., Friday, May 1, 2026.
Peter Kafka framed the bind precisely on John Ourand’s podcast The Varsity: “Politically it is too much of a tripwire for them to touch. What would have to happen is an Apple or a Netflix would have to offer an astronomical number for them to make it worth their while to get into what surely would be a political fight.” A March 2026 Fox News Poll found 72% of sports fans believe major sporting events should stay on free broadcast TV, with only 27% supporting leagues shifting games to paid streaming. Even the regulator putting pressure on the league is hedging. FCC Chair Brendan Carr said on May 6, 2026 that the sports TV inquiry may not lead to any action. The league still faces pressure from both directions, with one path triggering federal action and the other leaving billions on the table.
A 65-Year-Old Law Rewrites the Rules
Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, right, talks with assistants during the Titans Rookie Camp Day 1 at Vanderbilt Health Football Center in Nashville, Tenn., Friday, May 1, 2026.
The DOJ investigation marks the first formal federal antitrust review of NFL broadcast practices in the modern streaming era. The 1961 Sports Broadcasting Act grants antitrust immunity for over-the-air broadcast television, and FCC Chair Carr has argued that protection does not extend to paid streaming services. That 65-year-old legal gap turned federal agencies into competitive weapons. A 2024 jury awarded $4.7 billion to Sunday Ticket subscribers for antitrust violations, the largest such damages award in sports media history, though a federal judge later overturned it on procedural grounds. Senator Baldwin introduced the For The Fans Act aimed at ending sports blackouts and cutting streaming costs. MLB, NBA, and NHL face identical scrutiny the moment they pursue streaming expansion.
Winners, Losers, and Your Remote Control
Oct 10, 2019; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft talks with Rupert Murdoch before a game against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images
Murdoch wins in the short term, with his Fox stake protected while competitors absorb political risk premiums. Networks win short-term by stalling negotiations. The NFL loses leverage it spent years building. Scripted television loses next, because when networks redirect budgets to cover rising rights bills, writers, producers, and crews absorb the cuts. Amazon’s own advertising insights documented measurable gains for TNF advertisers in 2025, including double-digit lifts in ad effectiveness relative to linear benchmarks. Apple paid a reported $140 million annually for F1 rights beginning in 2026, which proves tech companies will spend on premium sports when the political climate allows it.
What To Watch Next
Jan 20, 2025; Washington, DC, USA; Former Executive Chairman of Fox Corp Rupert Murdoch attends the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol on January 20, 2025 in Washington, DC. Donald Trump takes office for his second term as the 47th president of the United States. Mandatory Credit: Chip Somodevilla-Pool via Imagn Images
The NFL’s 2026 schedule release is expected this week, and every streamer assignment on that schedule will draw immediate political reaction. The DOJ investigation has no public deadline, which means the uncertainty networks are using as leverage has no expiration date. Baldwin’s For The Fans Act now sits with the Senate Commerce Committee, where its fate will shape every negotiation that follows. Trump has already ripped the NFL’s pivot to streaming services publicly, and more pressure is likely the moment new streaming deals leak. The cascade runs in one direction of more platforms, higher costs, and deeper political entanglement, and understanding the Murdoch to DOJ pipeline means understanding every NFL media story for the next decade.
Would you pay $1,500 a year to watch every NFL game, or is this the season you finally cut the cord on the league? Tell us in the comments.
Sources:
Amazon Advertising, “TNF on Prime Video 2025 Season Viewership Insights,” Feb. 25, 2026.
Office of U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, “Baldwin’s New Bill to End Sports Blackouts, Cut Streaming Costs,” press release, April 15, 2026.
U.S. Department of Justice, antitrust investigation into NFL broadcast rights, confirmed to ESPN and NBC News, April 8, 2026.
Federal Communications Commission, public comment inquiry on sports broadcasting fragmentation, Feb. 25, 2026.
Amazon press release, “Amazon Prime Video Makes History as the First Streaming Service to Secure an Exclusive National NFL Package,” March 18, 2021.
The Wall Street Journal, “Rupert Murdoch’s High-Stakes Blitz Against the NFL,” May 7, 2026.
