The 2026 NFL touchdown race isn’t shaping up to be a wide-open scramble. ESPN’s projections, backed by fantasy models and betting markets, point to a startlingly small inner circle of quarterbacks expected to control the leaderboard. Passing volume, rushing upside, scheme design, and schedule strength all funnel scoring opportunities toward the same familiar names, plus a couple of surprises. Counting down from the expected to the genuinely surprising, here are the signal-callers projected to own the race.
9. Joe Burrow Returns as a Consensus Favorite
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws a pass in the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 18 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium in Downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. The Browns kicked a last second field goal to win 20-18.
Joe Burrow led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns in 2024 before a Grade 3 turf toe injury and surgery limited him to 8 starts and 17 passing TDs in 2025. With Burrow expected back to full health, FantasyPros projects him for 35.7 passing touchdowns and 4,625.6 passing yards for 2026, numbers that dwarf most quarterbacks’ ceilings. Cincinnati’s pass-heavy offensive philosophy and his elite red-zone history give him multiple paths to retake the crown. For fantasy managers and oddsmakers alike, a healthy Burrow is the benchmark everyone else chases.
8. Patrick Mahomes and the Perennial Baseline
Dec 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs the ball during the second half against the Los Angeles Chargers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Patrick Mahomes has remained a top-tier touchdown producer across multiple seasons, and consensus projections slot him at roughly 30.3 passing touchdowns with 4,259.5 passing yards for 2026. Those numbers might look modest compared to Burrow’s ceiling, but Mahomes’ consistency is the point. He rarely dips below the threshold where the touchdown crown is in play. His offensive ecosystem and postseason pedigree keep him locked inside the elite tier regardless of flashier projections elsewhere.
7. Josh Allen’s Dual-Threat Math Changes Everything
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) smiles at something someone said before the Buffalo Bills wild card game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025.
Josh Allen doesn’t just throw touchdowns, he runs them in. Consensus 2026 projections peg him for 29.0 passing touchdowns and 10.7 rushing touchdowns, with 572.5 rushing yards and 3,904 passing yards adding a dimension most pocket passers can’t match. ESPN’s Mike Clay places Allen first in his early 2026 fantasy QB rankings, citing six straight seasons no worse than QB2 in fantasy scoring. That dual-threat ceiling keeps Allen in pole position to challenge for the total touchdown crown.
6. Lamar Jackson’s Rushing Touchdowns Rewrite the Formula
Jan 4, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) practices before the game at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images
Lamar Jackson has built one of the most prolific rushing résumés ever assembled at the quarterback position, leading all QBs with 3,267 rushing yards since 2021. Consensus 2026 projections give him 32.3 passing touchdowns, 3.9 rushing touchdowns, and 828 rushing yards, with the rushing floor giving him a structural advantage no traditional passer can replicate. ESPN’s Clay ranks him third among QBs for 2026 fantasy. That ground-game floor means Jackson doesn’t need elite passing volume to contend.
5. Jalen Hurts and the Tush Push Multiplier
Jan 11, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) meet on the field in an NFC Wild Card Round game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Jalen Hurts continues to occupy a category all his own thanks to Philadelphia’s short-yardage scheme, with Footballguys noting he has averaged nearly 150 fantasy points per season from rushing alone since 2021 and posted double-digit rushing TDs in four of five seasons. Consensus 2026 projections give him 23.6 passing touchdowns and a position-leading 12.7 rushing touchdowns. The Eagles’ commitment to the Tush Push at the goal line essentially guarantees a steady stream of rushing scores that traditional passers cannot match. That structural edge keeps Hurts inside the elite tier of the touchdown race regardless of weekly passing volume.
4. Dak Prescott’s Polarizing Projection Window
Jan 4, 2026; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) warms up before the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
Dak Prescott sits at a fascinating crossroads after a strong bounce-back 2025 in which he started all 17 games and threw for 4,552 yards and 30 passing TDs with 2 rushing TDs. FantasyPros’ 2026 consensus projects him at 27.6 passing touchdowns, while Fantasy Points’ 2025 internal model had him at 26.6 against a 23.5 sportsbook prop, illustrating how often markets price him conservatively. When healthy, his red-zone efficiency places him firmly in the top tier. The question isn’t talent, it’s availability, and that uncertainty is exactly what divides analysts.
3. Jayden Daniels: The Dual-Threat Breakout No One Can Ignore
Dec 7, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) drops back to pass against the Minnesota Vikings during the first half at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
Jayden Daniels delivered a standout 2024 rookie season in Washington with 891 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns alongside 25 passing TDs. Consensus 2026 projections place him among the league’s rising dual-threat contenders at 26.7 passing touchdowns, 5.7 rushing touchdowns, and 750.1 rushing yards. ESPN’s Mike Clay ranks him as the QB2 in his early 2026 PPR rankings, behind only Allen. Most casual fans haven’t yet grasped how quickly he’s entered this conversation
2. Matthew Stafford’s Volume Path to the Crown
Jan 18, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) warms up before an NFC Divisional Round game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images
Matthew Stafford may be the headline name at the top of the 2026 touchdown projections after winning 2025 NFL MVP with a league-leading 46 passing touchdowns and 4,707 passing yards. Sean McVay’s pass-heavy scheme, paired with a healthy receiving corps, gives Stafford the volume profile that historically produces touchdown leaders. ESPN-aligned 2026 projections again place him among the league leaders in expected passing touchdowns. When the offense operates on schedule, Stafford’s red-zone accuracy makes him a serious threat to repeat as the touchdown leader outright.
1. Drake Maye’s Quiet Climb Into the Elite Tier
Feb 8, 2026; Santa Clara, CA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) exits the field after the loss against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
Drake Maye doesn’t generate the same headlines as Mahomes or Jackson, but the data tell a different story after a 2025 campaign with 4,394 passing yards, 31 passing TDs, 450 rushing yards, and 4 rushing TDs across all 17 games. Consensus 2026 projections give him 22.7 passing touchdowns and 491.5 rushing yards, while ESPN’s Mike Clay ranks him fourth in his early 2026 QB PPR rankings. His ground-game upside places him in the same dual-threat mold reshaping the position. Maye may be the 2026 touchdown race’s most undervalued name inside ESPN’s elite tier.
Bonus: Brock Purdy as ESPN’s Quiet Sleeper Pick
Jan 17, 2026; Seattle, WA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) warms up before the start of the second half against the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC Divisional Round game at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images
Brock Purdy has flown under the radar relative to the other names on this list, but ESPN’s “Don’t be surprised if…” 2026 piece by Eric Karabell explicitly flagged him as a candidate to lead the league in passing touchdowns in 2026, citing his 19.7 fantasy points per game (sixth among QBs) and 38 TD passes in a recent season that tied Burrow. Kyle Shanahan’s scheme produces some of the cleanest red-zone looks in football, and Purdy’s accuracy on those throws translates into efficient touchdown conversion. A healthy supporting cast in San Francisco only widens his ceiling. For bettors hunting value at the top of the futures board, Purdy is the sleeper ESPN keeps circling back to.
The Schedule and Injury Variables That Could Reshuffle Everything
May 24, 2026; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Fox Sports television analyst Danica Patrick (left) and Tony Stewart prior to the 110th running of the Indianapolis 500 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Projections from Fox Sports and AtoZ Sports emphasize that schedule strength and injury risk remain the wild cards capable of reshuffling the entire leaderboard. A quarterback projected for 30 touchdowns against a soft secondary-heavy schedule could surge past a rival facing elite defenses weekly. Burrow’s 2025 turf toe surgery, which limited him to 8 starts and 17 passing TDs, is a recent reminder of how quickly health can rewrite the race. Prop lines and projection ranges show how thin the margin is between the inner circle and the outside looking in.
A Widening Gap That Reshapes Fantasy and Betting Strategy
Bills quarterback Josh Allen breaks out of the pocket against the Vikings and Za’Daius Smith.
The concentration of touchdown production among roughly ten quarterbacks isn’t just a statistical curiosity, it’s rewriting how fantasy drafts and wagering markets operate. With 2026 projections ranging from 22.7 to 35.7 passing touchdowns across this elite tier, and rushing contributions adding 2.8 to 12.7 touchdowns per player, the gap between this group and the rest of the league keeps widening. For anyone building a roster or placing a futures bet, the 2026 touchdown race already has its owners. Who’s your pick to lead the NFL in total touchdowns in 2026, and which name on this list do you think is wildly overrated? Drop your TD leader prediction in the comments.
