December football is in full effect, and with it, some of the biggest games of the season. When it comes to teams chasing those AFC wildcard spots, the matchup between the Broncos and the Chargers is one of the most impactful games for the rest of the year. Let’s take a look at the four best plays for this matchup.
Marvin Mims Jr. – Under 24.5 Receiving Yards
Mims, in his sophomore season, has been the definition of a depth receiver. He had one very good performance in the strange matchup between the Broncos and Browns, but other than that, he’s really only seen two to three targets per game. In fact, he’s only cleared the line three times, one of those being the aforementioned Browns game. This is a generally safe play, assuming that Mims’ trend of getting at most three targets a game stays alive.
Marvin Mims Jr. under 24.5 receiving yards is the first play.
Courtland Sutton – Under 9.0 Targets
Speaking of receivers who haven’t been getting too many targets, let’s look at Courtland Sutton. Well, the problem is, he does average a lot of receptions, around 8 per game on average. The only problem is his catch-rate has been less than stellar this season, specifically the second half of the season. Averaging a just under 60% catch rate, I believe the confidence is dwindling on Sutton and his connection with Bo Nix, so it might be the game where they look at safer options when playoff hopes hang in the balance. This is especially because the Chargers are top 10 in opposing passing yards allowed, He’s only hit over 9.0 targets in five of his 14 games, and if he gets exactly 9, we break even. Therefore, this seems like a safer option than you would first think.
Courtland Sutton under 9.0 targets is the second pick for this Thursday Night.
Gus Edwards – Over 34.5 Rushing Yards
Since J.K. Dobbins’ injury in week 12, Gus Edwards has been the Chargers’ RB1, and it looks to continue that way for this week’s game. While Edwards’ numbers have been less than stellar since taking over the RB1 spot, he’s still managed to clear this line. I think Gus Edwards will finally have a game that gets the ground game going, a game where the o-line can create enough gaps to get Edwards over this line. He averages 3.4 yards per attempt, so just 11 carries will generally be enough for him to clear this line.
Gus Edwards over 34.5 is the next play for the game between the Broncos and Chargers.
Bo Nix – Over 16.9 Fantasy Points
Bo Nix has been having himself an all around good season, and this applies to fantasy as well. He’s cleared this line in 6 of his 14 games, and that’s with having a shaky start in the first five games of the season. He pretty consistently puts up multiple touchdown games, with 7 of his 14 games having 2 or more touchdowns. On top of all that, he also has 4 rushing TDs and another 327 yards on the ground. Last but not least, he’s the 9th best QB in terms of fantasy points, something that’s pretty impressive for a rookie. So, all of this to say, I think Bo Nix can have a good fantasy game, and can clear the line of 16.9 fantasy points this week. Just, hopefully he doesn’t clear it too much because I’ve got to play him in the fantasy playoffs.
Bo Nix over 16.9 fantasy points is the last play for this divisional matchup on Thursday Night.
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