The 2023 NFL Draft is two years into their careers and in today’s video we will be going back and grading the first half of the first round which is picks 1-16. This is the fourth draft grade video of the series as we recently graded the back half of the 2023 first round which was picks 17-31. There were only 31 picks in the 2023 first round because the Dolphins forfeited their first round pick as a punishment for violations of the leagues anti tampering policy – while trying to recruit Tom Brady and Sean Payton. As always we will be going in reverse order so we will be starting with the Washington Commanders selection of corner Emmanuel Forbes – and finishing with the Panthers selection of quarterback Bryce Young. And we all know why we’re here so without further ado – let’s begin
16 – Emmanuel Forbes was the the second corner selected in the 2023 draft after Seattle selected Devon Witherspoon at number 5 overall. I didn’t like this pick from the beginning as I thought now Patriots corner Christian Gonzalez was a better player in pretty much every way and I also hated the fact that Washington was selecting an extremely light corner in a division where you’re going to have to go up against a guy like AJ Brown twice a year who outweighs Forbes by a good 40 pounds. And in week 4 of Forbes rookie season which was his first game against Philly – Forbes was targeted 13 times and allowed 9 receptions for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns and allowed an opposing passer rating of 151.4 when targeted. He got burnt in coverage quite a bit during his time in Washington and was flat out released before his second season ended. Not traded for a future draft pick – but flat out released. I was hoping Forbes would prove everyone wrong and become a great corner for Washington – but unfortunately it didn’t workout. Not surprisingly this grade is an F.
15 – Will McDonald bursted onto the scene in his second season in a big way after not playing much as a rookie. I know the Jets are a very dysfunctional team at times – but they had a clear plan with McDonald and it showed in 2024. He finished the year with over 60 pressures, 24 quarterback hits, and had 10.5 sacks in what was a very good year for him personally. Unfortunately McDonald missed his fair share of tackles in 2024 as he was credited with 11 missed tackles this year – but when you are able to flash as a pass rusher the way McDonald did – you are okay with the occasional bad plays that come with as many big plays as he makes. It is also worth noting McDonald is a liability at times in the run game which certainly factors into his grade – but I think 2024 was the start of the type of player that McDonald will be over the next few years barring health of course. I am genuinely excited for a healthy Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald – and even big Q as well to get after the quarterback in the future. McDonald had a tremendous second season after a rocky first year and two years in this is an A.
14 – Broderick Jons is up and thorough two years this pick has largely been disappointing. There’s several reasons for this and I know a lot of the time people want to blame one specific thing or person – and in this case a lot of the time Steelers fans want to blame offensive line coach Pat Meyer. And while I’m not saying he is blameless because he certainly has a part in this – Broderick has allowed 79 pressures on 1,080 career pass blocking snaps and is coming off a season in 2024 in which he allowed 11 sacks – which was tied for second most in the NFL behind his teammate Dan Moore – and is coming off of a year in which he was also credited with 10 penalties. Jones has been a disappointing player and I know there’s a belief that if he can play left tackle – which he is where he played in college for Georgia – that everything will magically work out and he’ll be fine. But there’s a lot of technical problems with Broderick like getting out of his stance and having his hands way too wide at times and I hope he turns it around in 2025. He will be just 24 years old at the start of the 2025 season so there is some hope for him to turn it around – but for now – this is an F.
13- Lukas Van Ness was the Packers first round selection and through 2 years Van Ness has seasons with 22 pressures and 20 pressures and has 7 career sacks. Van Ness has been an incredibly frustrating player for Packers fans to watch over the first two years because simply put – there’s not a lot of NFL players built the way Ness is – both physically and especially athletically. His arm length, hand size, 40 yard dash, 3 cone, and 20 yard shuttle were all in the 69th percentile in better when he was a prospect. His broad jump was also in the 61st percentile and when Van Ness gets loose at times – you can see how freakish of an athlete he is. But more often than not with Van Ness – there’s simply no plan and because of how athletic he is – there’s naturally going to be some production and also just due to him being on the field – but there’s no denying how disappointing of a pick this has been through the first few years. He will be just 24 at the start of the 2025 season so he can still get his career turned around – but for how athletically gifted he is – there’s not a lot else going his way and it’s frustrating to watch for a team who needs help at the edge position. Two years later this is a C-
12 – Jahmyr Gibbs was the first of two Lions first round picks and some people may not remember – though I know Lions fans definitely do – but the Lions faced a lot of criticism when this pick was made. How could they possibly trade back for a running back when Bijan Robinson – the best running back prospect in since Saquon Barkley was available when they were initially on the clock at pick 6? Well, in the first two years of his career Jahmyr Gibbs is a 2 time pro bowler and in his second season – had over 1,900 total yards and 20 total touchdowns. I honestly think due in some part to the year Saquon Barkley had and even due to the year Derrick Henry had – that Gibbs season was a little under discussed nationally at times – but I know this word gets tossed around far too often in the draft process but i’ll say it – Jahmyr Gibbs had a generational second season. 1,900 total yards and 20 total touchdowns is downright insane. The Lions had the infrastructure to support a top 12 pick on a running back and Gibbs is a legitimate home run threat every time he touches the football. He’s undoubtedly one of the best backs in the league and this is an easy A+
11 – Peter Skoronski was the Titans first round pick and like a lot of young offensive lineman going from playing 21 year old collegiate players every week – to wrestling guys in the trenches like Deforrest Buckner twice a season – Peter Skoronski had a bit of a transition period once he got to the NFL. And you could even say the transition period played into his second season a bit as well- at least early in 2024. I was really excited for his and JC Latham’s future with the idea of them being coached by Bill Callahan – the Titans offensive line coach – who is of course Titans head coach Brian Callahan’s father. And Skoronski had a tremendous end to his second season as in the final 7 games of the year – he allows just 5 pressures on 273 pass blocking snaps and looked like the player he was at Northwestern. That’s a pretty big difference for Skoronski considering he allowed 23 pressures on 388 pass blocking snaps in weeks 1-11 of 2024. And any time a player make significant strides like this down the stretch of their second season – especially at just 23 years old – I am going to be optimistic about this players future every single time. And I am really optimistic about JC Latham, Peter Skoronski, and Lloyd Cushenberry entering 2025. And two years later this is an A-
10 – Darnell Wright is up and I know the Bears had a rough 2024 season – but Darnell Wright had a really good year all things considered. Unfortunately if you are aware of any play Darnell Wright has been a part of – it’s probably from the week 2 Sunday night game in Houston in which Danielle Hunter got the best of Darnell. Multiple times. But Danielle Hunter is a 5 time pro bowler and a guy who has 99.5 career sacks and he’s really good at what he does. And Darnell Wright – like Peter Skoronski – had a tremendous end to his second season. Obviously when you think of the 2024 Bears you probably think of Caleb Williams getting sacked or not living up to unrealistic expectations – but Darnell himself was a really good player. He allowed a single sack from week 11 on after being credited with allowing 5 sacks in the first 8 games of the year. He will be just 24 at the start of the 2025 season and I think next year will be the year where Darnell Wright really starts to get recognized nationally. He improved across the board from 2023 to 2024 and the one thing I’d like to see from him cut down in next year is penalties. He is – by every definition – trending upwards and through two years this is an A-.
9 – Jalen Carter was one of the best defensive tackle prospects in the past 10 years and he only fell to pick 9 because of an off the field situation. He was arguably the best prospect in this class and he’s lived up to the hype in the first two years of his career. He finished 2nd in the defensive rookie of the year voting to only Will Anderson in 2023 and in 2024 – took his game to another level as he had 16 quarterback hits, was a 2nd team all pro, finished top 12 in the defensive player of the year voting – and the accolade I’m sure everyone cares about most – he was also a pro bowler. His sack numbers technically went down from his rookie year to his second year but the attention he commands on every single play is noticeable and Birds fans especially know this – and he’s a large reason – no pun intended – they won the Super Bowl. Carter is a big reason Vic Fangio was able to consistently get home with just 4 rushers in the Super Bowl and Jalen had 53 pressures in the regular season in 2024 – and had an additional 22 pressures in the 4 postseason gams. He’s only 23 years old and the only question that’s going to be asked when it’s time for him to get a contract is – how much. He’s an elite player and Howie Roseman did it again. An easy A+
8 – Bijan Robinson was one of the easier evaluations as a prospect over the past 5 years and through two years he has lived up to the lofty expectations he had and more. The only unfortunate part for Bijan in 2024 was he didn’t play on a good team and it was an insane year across the board for running backs – as guys like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Jahmyr Gibbs all had phenomenal years. But you may be surprised to know in 2024 that Bijan had 1,887 total yards and 15 total touchdowns and was named to his first career pro bowl. He will be just 23 years old during the 2025 season and with the way Michael Penix played towards the end of the season – I love the offensive future in the Big A. In two years Bijan has over 3,300 total yards and 23 total touchdowns and I think he’s been everything the Falcons could have asked for and more when they were the clock a few years ago. I’m sure there’s some Falcons fans that wish they drafted Jalen Carter instead of Bijan because of how bad their pass rush routinely is – but Bijan was a tremendous prospect and has played like it through the first two years of his career. And I’d be surprised if he doesn’t have another 1,000 yard year in 2025. An A+ grade
7 – Tyree Wilson of the Raiders was the 7th overall pick and Tyree admittedly struggled during his rookie year. There were certainly times he flashed during the 2023 season but there was a point during his rookie year where I had concerns that this was going to be an all time bad pick. He picked it up a little bit towards the end of his rookie year and flashed at times during his second year. He will be 25 during the 2025 season and actually had 37 pressures in his sophomore season – including an 8 pressure game against New Orleans in what was the best game of his career so far. Tyree’s big problem is he doesn’t have a counter off the bull rush and there’s times – and a lot more times than Raiders fans would like – where opposing offensive lineman swipe his hands away – or because they too are NFL players and are paid to be good at their job – know how to neutralize the bull rush and stop Tyree before he can get going. The tools are there for Tyree and the flashes are too – it’s just a matter of being able to put it all together. And 2025 will be a make or break year for him. For now this is a C-
6- Paris Johnson Jr of the Cardinals is up and in order to get Paris – the Cardinals traded back from pick 3 to pick 12 – then went back up to pick 6 to get they tackle of the future. Paris definitely had an adjustment period in his rookie season at right tackle but got better as the season went on. He also went back to his collegiate position of left tackle in 2024 and I thought the transition for Paris was a lot more natural. He played in 14 of the 17 possible games in 2024 before suffering a left knee injury which prematurely ended his sophomore season but he was still a very good player when he played. He was credited with 515 pass blocking snaps in 2024 and allowed 4 sacks – only one of which came after week 5. He was more efficient as he transitioned back to left tackle, he improved in the run game, and he did a great job protecting Kyler Murray’s blindside. I think people get caught up in tackles like Penei Sewell or Joe Alt who are each very good players and act like if they aren’t on either of their levels – then they’re a disappointing first round pick or not going to be able to live up to the hype. But that’s not the case. Paris Johnson is one of the most under appreciated players in the NFL. He’s a franchise tackle and he should be in the desert for the next several years. An A+ grade
5 – Devon Witherspoon of the Seahawks is up and Witherspoon has started his career off with back to back pro bowls and has been a tremendous player for Seattle. Not only has he been a tremendous player for Seattle – but he has really changed the culture of the team and plays with a toughness and an edge that you have to see to really understand how impactful he is. He’s tough, he’s competitive, and he’s fiery as hell and has 14 tackles for a loss in the first two years of his career alone. During Super Bowl media week he gave a receiver in the division bulletin board material as he said “Marvin Harrison Jr is that hard to guard” and there’s certainly times where corners yap – if you will just to yap – but Witherspoon backs it up. He’s one of my favorite corners in the entire league and I loved him as a prospect coming out of Illinois. He’s everything you’d want in a corner. He’s tough, he’s really good at recognizing plays before they happen, and Seattle fans know how lucky they are to have him. And Witherspoon gets the same grade as he did last year. An easy A+
4- Anthony Richardson was the 3rd quarterback taken in the first 4 picks and through 2 years AR more interceptions than he has touchdown passes as he has 11 passing touchdowns to 13 interceptions. Drafting Anthony Richardson in the top 5 was always going to be a risk because of how raw he was as a prospect coming out of Florida and it’s shown through the first few years of his career. He only played 4 games during his rookie year and didn’t look as bad as people make him out to be now – and the hope was he could put it together in 2024. Unfortunately he completed less than 48% of his passes in 2024 and he threw just 8 touchdowns to 12 interceptions his second season and pretty much anything that could have went wrong for AR in 2024 – went wrong. Whether it was his own play, or even what he is probably most known for at this point – checking out of a game midway through the season and then proceeding to get benched for a 39 year old Joe Flacco – it was a tough year for Anthony and the Colts. It seemed for every home run grand slam play he had – there were several instances where he’d strike out with the bases loaded. He is actually younger than both Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders so there is hope that he can pan out at just 23 years old – but for now – this is an F
3 – The Texans surprised everyone when they traded all the way up from pick 12 to pick 3 to go get pass rusher Will Anderson and two years later they look like geniuses. Anderson had a tremendous rookie season as he had over 55 pressures, had 22 quarterback hits, had 7 sacks and won the defensive rookie of the year award. He also made the pro bowl at just 22 years old and the future was very bright for Anderson and the Texans. In 2024 he would go on to have his first double digit sack season on his career at just 23 years old and I really think the sky is the limit for Will Anderson. He is in a good situation at the moment as he gets to play opposite of Danielle Hunter and each player had 10+ sacks in their first season together as teammates in 2024. Will Anderson was a very hyped up prospect from the middle of his sophomore season at Alabama and he had really high expectations entering his rookie season back in 2023. And for as tough as it can be to adjust to the trenches at the NFL level – Will Anderson didn’t seem to struggle really at all. He is everything the Texans hoped for when they traded all the way up to pick 3 and this is an A+
2 – CJ Stroud is up and entering 2024 it was always going to be difficult for CJ to replicate the year he had in 2023 and to be the player the media expected him to be. I always thought expectations for the Texans entering 2024 were enormously high and for Stroud personally too. His numbers declined from 2023 to 2024 across the board but I didn’t think Stroud played bad in his second season compared to his first. We often talk about players dealing with adversity and Stroud dealt with an enormous amount of adversity in year 2 as he had his top 3 receivers all go down at one point and for extended time periods at that. Him throwing 5 interceptions on 499 passes in his rookie season was never going to be sustainable and we saw that in 2024 as well. The interior offensive line was also really bad for the Texans and the positive thing to takeaway from the 2024 Texans season is – they still won a playoff game and CJ still looked pretty solid in the process. He looked like a different player against the Chargers in the wild card playoff game than he did for most of the regular season and I am eager to see what Houston does this offseason. The grade from last year does not change for Stroud and through two years – this is an A+
1 – Bryce Young was the number one pick in the 2023 draft and I’ll be honest – this was was a pick I struggled with to grade for a few reasons. I have said before I’m willing to dismiss a lot of his rookie year because he was set up to fail – big time. His offensive line was horrible, his receivers outside of a then 33 year old Adam Thielen were terrible, and his head coach was fired midway through his rookie year. 2024 was supposed to be different. But it didn’t start out that way as the Panthers were outscored 73-13 in the first two games of the year and Bryce looked about as bad it can get. And he was starting to look like an all time draft bust. But over the final 10 games of his second season – he had 20 total touchdowns to 6 interceptions and looked like a completely different player. He looked like the Alabama Bryce Young. And in the final 3 games of 2024 – he had 10 total touchdowns to 0 turnovers and the Panthers put up 35 or more points twice. But how much do you factor that into a guy’s career who lifetime has a 6-22 record as a starter and has just 26 touchdowns to 19 interceptions and has an additional 8 lost fumbles? And that’s the part I struggle with. I love Bryce Young and I think his future is very bright and I couldn’t have been happier for him and the Panthers fan base to end the 2024 season the way they did. But this is a number one overall pick we’re talking about here. I really think the grade will be higher next year, but after a D+ last year – it jumps to a B- this year. I hope you enjoyed the article and hope you have a great rest of your day!
