As NFL kickers have improved and the risk to players has increased, kick returns have naturally become less common. Recognizing this trend, the NFL began making gradual changes to the kickoff return rules in 2011, continuing through 2018. These changes included moving the kickoff line from the 30-yard line to the 35-yard line and adjusting the kickoff return formations to reduce high-speed contact. Despite these efforts, kickoffs still felt like an afterthought. When the XFL introduced a new kickoff format in 2020, it saw a remarkable kickoff return rate of over 90%. This prompted the NFL’s Competition Committee to explore ways to adopt similar rules. In the summer of 2024, the NFL announced it would adopt a version of the XFL’s kickoff return rules, with a few modifications. Fans and analysts spent the summer speculating how these changes might shake up what had become a predictable part of the game. Now, with a full season under the new rules, the question remains: Are these changes an improvement or a step backward?
To evaluate, let’s first review the pre-season goals the NFL set for the new return rules. Before the regular season, the NFL Competition Committee aimed for a 50-60% return rate with the new rules. However, the actual return rate for the season ended up at just 32.8%, according to NFL Football Operations. This is only an 11% increase from the previous season and is far from the XFL’s 97% return rate. The main reason for this difference is the NFL’s adjustments to the XFL’s rules. A key difference is that touchbacks in the NFL are placed at the 30-yard line, rather than the 35-yard line like in the XFL. This seemingly small change has a significant impact on a coach’s decision to allow a return. Darren Rizzi, special teams coordinator for the Denver Broncos and a leading figure in the new rules, explained that placing the ball on the 30 instead of the 35 would decrease return rates by an estimated 40%. This makes sense, considering that last year, the average starting field position was at the 24-yard line. Coaches are much more likely to give up the extra six yards rather than risk a touchdown, especially when the ball is placed only at the 30-yard line. Data collected by Armchair Analysis found that starting at the 35-yard line gives a team a 10% better chance to score a touchdown compared to starting at the 25-yard line. While that might not seem like much, 10% is significant in a sport defined by small margins. These small differences in the current kickoff rules explain why coaches still choose to kick the ball out of the end zone. To reach a return rate closer to the XFL’s 97%, the NFL will likely need to adopt rules more similar to the XFL’s to encourage coaches to allow more returns.
The second way to assess these new rules is from a fan’s perspective. Do the changes make the game more exciting? Despite the lower-than-expected return rate, there’s no denying that more kickoff returns create a more exciting game. This season, there were seven kickoff returns for touchdowns, three more than the previous season. Ultimately, that’s three more thrilling plays for fans to enjoy. One memorable moment was KaVontae Turpin’s incredible 99-yard touchdown run against the Commanders. What I find particularly exciting about these changes is the way they open up new strategies for special team coaches. With players lined up more evenly, teams can implement innovative blocking schemes rather than just running straight at each other. Some teams have even experimented with two returners in the backfield, either to field bounces or serve as lead blockers. These creative approaches make the game more dynamic and fun to watch for everyone, which wouldn’t be possible without the new kickoff rules.
So, are the new kickoff rules good for the game? I’d say yes. Will there still be adjustments in the coming years? Definitely. The NFL has already stated that they plan to refine the kickoff format in the next offseason, likely making it even more favorable for teams to allow returns. Overall, I think the NFL made the right decision by adopting the XFL’s format, as it offers a balance of benefits: more exciting returns while reducing injuries on what was once one of the most dangerous plays in sports. Ultimately, more exciting plays and fewer injuries benefit everyone—players, coaches, and fans alike.
