The 2021 NFL Draft class is 4 years into their careers and in today’s video we’re going to be going back and grading the first half of the first round of the 2021 draft which is picks 1-16. We have now graded the 2022 – 2024 draft classes for anyone interested and those videos will be linked at the end. The 2021 class was a very interesting class as there were 5 quarterbacks selected in the top 15 picks and there were – dare we say it – not just one – but multiple generational prospects at their respective positions at the top of this class. I know that’s a strong word, but I think it’s applicable to the 2021 draft. We will be going in reverse order so we will be starting with the Cardinals selection of Zaven Collins, and finishing with the Jags selection of Trevor Lawrence. And we all know why we’re here so without further ado – let’s begin
16 – Zaven Collins was the Cardinals first round pick back in 2021 and we often talk about quarterbacks being victims of franchises failing as them as players – or having a GM take a quarterback in a last gasp effort to save his job – but Zaven Collins is in a similar situation as a defensive player. Not with the last gasp effort to the GM’s job part – but the not having a plan with this player long term part. Zaven Collins has been used in several different ways since being drafted back in 2021 – including the first two years of his career at middle linebacker – before eventually settling in at edge over the past two years. Collins is a really good run defending edge and there’s a purpose for players like that in the NFL. But drafting a run setting edge at number 16 overall after he failed at inside linebacker in the first few years of his career is not a good draft process. I credit Jonathan Gannon for getting more out of Zaven Collins – than the previous regime did – but that doesn’t make this pick a good one due to a slight improvement over the past few years. I think Zaven Collins has a role in the NFL – and will for quite some time – but I also think it’s fair to say he was underwhelming as a first round pick. It’s fair to say he’s a solid player you’d like to have on your roster – at least where he is now in his career – but it’s also fair to say he wasn’t worth the 16th overall pick. And 4 years later this gets a C
15 – Mac Jones was the 5th quarterback selected in the first round and believe it or not – there was a point in time where he looked like the was going to be the best quarterback in this class. He finished second in offensive rookie of the year voting back in 2021 behind the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase and led the Patriots to a postseason appearance. Sure they got beat – and even killed by Buffalo in the 2021 wild card round of the playoffs – but the future looked bright for Mac and the Patriots. There was a very real thought at a time that they were going to transition from Tom Brady to Mac Jones – and yes there was a year in between the two – but the thought was that Bill Belichick had his quarterback of the future. But unfortunately that unraveled pretty quick and over the next two years- Mac was just 8-17 as a starter and in those 25 games – threw 24 touchdowns to 23 interceptions. The Patriots knew they had to do something at the quarterback position entering the 2024 offseason and they eventually drafted Drake Maye. We obviously know the Mac Jones era ended on a sour note – but I don’t think this grade is as simple as he’s not good now and this is an F. This will also apply to another player later in the video. Mac looked really good in his rookie year at times and while that obviously didn’t last – that does count for something and he played a big part in the Patriots most recent postseason appearance. 4 years later this is a D.
14 – The Jets traded up with the Vikings from pick 23 for their second first round pick of the night which was USC offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker. I liked AVT a lot as a prospect as I thought he was a really good player and a guy who could start at any guard or tackle position – regardless of side – and be good to go. And through 4 years – he’s played at every position along the offensive line outside of Center. Unfortunately Vera-Tucker has yet to play in a full 17 game season though he played in at least 15 games twice. He suffered a torn triceps injury back in 2022, and had an achilles in 2023 which prematurely ended his second and third seasons in the NFL. 2024 was a now or never year for Vera-Tucker and he played really good for the Jets this past year. Now as we often discuss on the channel – availability is the best ability and unfortunately AVT has only played in 43 of 68 possible career games – meaning he’s missed 37% of all possible games since he was drafted. Injuries are unfortunately apart of the game and I think this has to be factored into the grade. AVT was a bright spot for the Jets this past year and I do think he is a pro bowl level talent when healthy – or an A level talent from a grade perspective – and I hope we he has continued success – but when you factor everything in with this pick – 4 years later – this is a B.
13 – Rashawn Slater was the second tackle off the board in the 2021 class and I really liked this pick at the time for a few reasons. I thought Slater was an elite left tackle prospect and that both his tape and his pre draft measurements backed it up. Benching 33 reps while having a 94th percentile 10 yard split as well as a 94th percentile short shuttle alleviated any concerns I had about his arm length. Not only that, but I really liked the idea of drafting your franchise quarterback and your franchise left tackle in back to back drafts. Both players are young and can grow together and more often than not – both Slater and Justin Herbert play well and as we saw in 2024 – it resulted in a lot more wins. Unfortunately Rahsawn tore his biceps just a few games into the 2022 season and missed most of the year, but he bounced back in a big way in 2023 and especially 2024 as he had the best year of his career and made his second career pro bowl. Rashawn Slater has not signed his contract extension yet, but when we discuss teams bringing in offensive lineman through free agency or trade – and discuss how great offensive lineman usually don’t leave their teams until they’re well into their 30’s – that applies directly to Rashawn Slater. As long as he stays healthy – he should be the Chargers starting left tackle for the next 4 or 5 years and that’s not an exaggeration to say. He does a good job both in the pass and run game and this is an A+
12 – Micah Parsons was the Cowboys first round pick back in 2021 and in 2024 he became the 4th player ever to record 10+ sacks in each of the first 4 years of his career. Nd over the last 2 years Parsons ranks first in pressure rate, pass rush win rate, and is also first in double teams. Micah finished 2nd in the defensive player voting in each of the first 2 years of his career and finished 3rd in 2023 before unfortunately missing 4 games in 2024 – in a year where he still recorded 12 sacks and made the pro bowl. I know people love getting their jokes in about the Cowboys and the NFC championship game streak – but Parsons is far from the problem. He led the NFL in pressures in 2023 with 103 and was tied with 49ers pass rusher Nick Bosa back in 2022 as they each had 90 – which also led the league. For reference he finished 9th back in 2021 as a rookie – and to be at least be fair to Micah – he was used in a completely different way his rookie year – yet still finished top 10 in pressures. And he finished 7th in 2024 despite missing 4 games. Micah Parsons is a game wrecker and in 4 years – he’s a 4 time pro bowler and a 3 time all pro and is just 25 years old. This is hall of fame production and I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t in a defensive player of the year award before it’s all said and done. An A+ grade
11 – Justin Fields for the Bears is up and obviously we all know he is no longer a Chicago Bear but I don’t think the grade for this selection is as simple as the thought process of “he didn’t work out as a first round pick so it’s an automatically an F”. There were some incredibly fun times for Bears fans when Justin Fields was the starting quarterback. Obviously there were a lot more losses than they would have liked as Justin finished his Bears tenure with a 10-28 record as the teams starting quarterback – but he ran for over 1,100 yards back in 2022 and had 25 total touchdowns that year. I think both things can be true regarding the Justin Fields selection – where the organization failed him and he also didn’t live up to being a first round pick. His situation wasn’t ideal entering his rookie year as everyone knew the GM and head coach were both on the hot seat – and they were fired after Fields rookie year. Ryan Poles more or less opted to openly tank down the stretch of the 2022 season and obviously that didn’t do Justin any favors either. And unfortunately for Justin – the Panthers had the worst record in the league in 2023 – which gave the Bears the opportunity to draft Caleb Williams number one overall in 2024. If Justin was this no doubt franchise changing quarterback – they obviously wouldn’t have selected Caleb Williams in 2024. But it’s also fair to say that Justin was nowhere close to the levels of some other quarterback that have been draft busts. 4 years later we give this a C-
10 – Heisman winning trophy wide receiver Devonta Smith was the third receiver taken in the top 10 picks of the 2021 draft and Smitty has been a really good receiver for the Birds in the first 4 years of his career. Obviously with all of the success Saquon Barkley had in 2024 – and Jalen Hurts rushing for another 14 touchdowns too – somebody had to take a back seat in the 2024 Eagles offense. Devonta missed a few games so that is absolutely worth noting but had career lows in both targets and receiving yards in 2024. Now unfortunately for Devonta – from a personal standpoint – another 2021 receiver in Ja’Marr Chase had a huge 2024 season which brings up the question of – how should Devonta Smith be graded – with a generational receiver in the same class. This is a challenge but what has to be remembered is Smitty has over 4,000 career receiving yards and has 2 1,000 yard seasons to his name. This may come as a surprise because of how watered down the game has become – but Devonta also has never made the pro bowl. I loved this selection when it was made because the Eagles actually jumped the Giants to make this pick – and ensure a division rival didn’t get him in the process, but I don’t think Devonta is a top 5 or 10 receiver in the NFL. He’s a really good player and I think he’s been pretty close to everything the Eagles could have asked for. And 4 years later this is an A-
9 – Patrick Surtain the second is up and he was the second corner taken in the 2021 draft and was the second corner taken in consecutive picks. Surtain was a really highly regarded prospect all throughout the 2021 pre draft process and was a consensus first round pick. The only question was where he would go and which team would be getting a really good corner prospect from day one. Denver was ultimately the team and in 4 years – Surtain is a three time pro bowler, a two time first team all pro, and now – after the 2024 season – a defensive player of the year award winner. Curtain has 11 career interceptions and two seasons with 4 interceptions as he had 4 interceptions all the way back in his rookie season which included a pick 6 from division rival Justin Herbert of the Chargers. He’s incredibly durable as he’s played in 66 of 68 possible career games, he eliminates opposing teams receivers and I asked Broncos fan Brandon Perna before the 2024 season if he was the best corner in football – and he replied without even having to think about it “yeah easy”. And that describes this pick. The Broncos are on the way back up and obviously Bo Nix and Sean Payton have a lot to do with it – but so does a 24 year old corner in their prime. An easy A+
8 – Jaycee Horn was the first corner off the board and I think the best way to describe this pick 4 years later is – complicated. Jaycee Horn has only played in 13 games or more in two of his four seasons – but when he’s played – he’s been good. Really good. But one of the reasons this pick is complicated is because of how good the pick immediately after Jaycee Horn – in Pat Surtain. It adds to this pick because it’s not an exaggeration to say that Surtain is on a hall of fame trajectory for the Broncos while Jaycee Horn has only played in 37 of 68 possible career games. And no matter how good you are – if you miss 46% of your career games that’s going to factor into the draft grade fair or not. If you watched any Panthers games in 2024 – specifically when they were on defense – then you know this was not a talented group and to be fair they had several injuries including a big one to defensive tackle Derrick Brown. But Jaycee Horn was one of the very few bright spots on a bad defense this past year and he’s been a bright spot for Carolina when he’s played in his young career. We of course wish Jaycee the best moving forward and based on talent alone – I would give this grade an A – but because he’s missed so much time in his career – unfortunately this gets brought down to a B-.
7 – Penei Sewell was one of the best tackle prospects over the past several years and he’s played it like through the first 4 years of his career. One of the craziest things to me with Penei when was a draft prospect – was – how complete he was as a player – while being just 20 years old. Penei didn’t turn 21 until October of his rookie year and this was the definition of a great player falling into the Lions lap and 4 years later – the Lions have reaped the benefits of drafting Penei Sewell. He played both left tackle and right tackle during his rookie year and even kicked one to the left side a bit during the 2023 season – but throughout the draft process you often hear the phrase that a guy is a plug and play player for several years – and Penei Sewell is that guy. He’s a 3 time pro bowler and 2 time first team all pro and this is before his 25th birthday. One of the knocks on Bo Nix and Michael Penix during last years pre draft process was that they were older prospects – and despite being drafted three years earlier – Penei Sewell is several months younger than both guys. The Lions gave him a 4 year contract extension worth over $110 million dollars and Penei is one of the biggest reasons – no pun intended – as to why the Lions have been so successful over the past few years. He’s a kick rear ends and take names later kind of player. This is easy. An A+
6 – Jaylen Waddle was the Dolphins first round pick back in 2021 and they acquired this selection from the Eagles after trading back with the 49ers – and then traded back up to go get Alabama receiver Jaylen Waddle. Waddle – like a lot of Dolphins in 2024 – had a really down year as he had career lows across the board. As in everything – targets, receptions yards, and touchdowns as he only had 2 touchdowns in all of 2024. Jaylen had a really good second season back in 2022 as he had over 1,300 yards and 8 touchdowns and given that it was the first year under Mike McDaniel – it was easy to project a very high future for Jaylen and the Dolphins. But unfortunately the last two years haven’t been particularly kind to Jaylen on the field for several reasons – whether it was his starting quarterback missing games – or him just not getting the football as much as he should. But because he has over 4,100 receiving yards in the first 4 years of his career – you can argue he’s been everything the Dolphins could have hoped for when they made this pick – which makes this very difficult to grade. He also set a franchise record for most receiving yards in the first four seasons of a career – and I think Jaylen will bounce back in 2025 and be a 1,000 yard receiver for the 4th time in 5 years. 4 years later this is an A-
5 – LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase was drafted 5th overall by the Bengals and this paired him with his former collegiate quarterback Joe Burrow. A lot of people hate this word but it was certainly fair to use for Ja’Marr Chase – and it’s that he was a generational prospect. And he was. He ran a 4.34 40, he jumped 41 inches in the vertical, he had an 11 foot broad jump, and benched 225 23 times at just 201 pounds. He was the best receiver to come out since Julio Jones back in 2011 and he’s played like it through the first 4 years of his career. He set an NFL record back in 2021 for most receiving yards in a year – that includes the postseason – as well as the most receiving yards in a single game, and was the youngest NFL player with multiple 100 yard receiving games in a single postseason. He won the triple crown in 2024 as he would go on to have a 127 catch, 1,708 yard, 17 touchdown season and was the best receiver in football in 2024. Ja’Marr Chase and Micah Parsons are the only two players to be able to say this from the 2021 draft class – but they are both already – 4 time pro bowlers. Ja’Marr is only 25 years old and will undoubtedly be getting paid soon – and the only question is – especially with the salary cap going up year by year – is how much. 46 touchdowns in 4 years is downright insane and he is a franchise cornerstone for the Bengals. This pick couldn’t have worked out better and it’s an A+.
4 – Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons is up and this is a tough pick to grade for several reasons. Pitts obviously had a tremendous rookie season back in 2021 as he became the second rookie tight end ever to have 1,000 yards in his rookie year. Brock Bowers of course became the third in 2024. Now people talk about the Atlanta Falcons passing on
Ja’Marr Chase to draft Kyle Pitts – but it was not egregious at the time. Hindsight is of course 2020, but Kyle Pitts was a very very rare prospect. He was 6’6, 245, had a 98th percentile wingspan which obviously helps for catching passes – and for that matter – a 93rd percentile hand size too. Oh and he ran a 4.44. This was the definition of a built in a lab prospect and he played like it in 2021. He had a down year in 2022 and also got hurt, but over the last two years he’s had over 600 yards and finished 11th in receiving yards for tight ends in 2023, and 13th in 2024. I think there’s a misconception as to who Kyle Pitts is as a player and people make him out to be like he’s an all time bust. But he’s not. Sure he’s underwhelming for a top 4 pick and I wouldn’t argue that – but having nearly 200 receptions and nearly 2,700 receiving yards is a lot different than taking a Treylon Burks or Jalen Reagor in the first round for reference. I understand one was selected in the top 4, and the others mentioned were picks 18 and 21 – but Kyle Pitts is not a bust the way people want make him out to be. He’s not a hit, but he’s not a bust either. And 4 years later this is a C+.
3 – The San Francisco 49ers traded a fortune to go up and get North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance as they sent their 2021 first round pick, their 2022 first round pick, their 2022 third round pick, and their 2023 first round pick to secure their franchise signal caller. The trade made a lot of sense at the time as they were coming off of a bad season in 2020 as they had countless season ending injuries – unfortunately similar to this past year – and they figured that they weren’t going to be selecting this high for quite some time – and that they should go up and get their guy in a loaded quarterback class. And to be completely honest – I agree with the thought process. But Trey Lance did not work out for the 49ers. Not even close. And in a lot of ways – you can argue that Brock Purdy saved both Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch’s jobs. But in Lance’s 49ers career – he threw just 102 passes and threw just 5 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. With the 49ers coming off of a NFC championship game appearance in Brock Purdy’s rookie year – they had a decision to make entering 2023. And that decision was to either roll with Brock Purdy – or to admit they made a mistake with this pick – and to move on despite how much draft capital was sacrificed for this selection. And needless to say it didn’t work out. This is an easy F
2 – Zach Wilson was the number 2 overall pick and there are a lot of Jets fans still mad to this day – rightfully so might I add – that they beat the Rams in week 15 of the 2020 season. They were 0-13 at the time and Jets fans were hoping they would go 0-16 – so they could get the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in Trevor Lawrence. Now Unfortunately Zach Wilson didn’t work out as the Jets starting quarterback as during his time with the team he was 12-21 as a starter, threw more interceptions than touchdowns, and there were countless bad moments during his time in the big apple. What was incredibly frustrating about Wilson – aside from a lot of things – was just how often he took sacks during his time in New York. He took forever to throw as the game was far too fast for him, and his pressure to sack ratio was incredibly high – meaning he couldn’t escape pressure and got himself into a lot of bad situations. I thought the Jets did everything they reasonably could to give him a chance to be the guy especially entering his second year. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in one draft is a great haul and one that any team would take – but it didn’t matter much when Wilson couldn’t produce. The hope was for him to develop behind Aaron Rodgers in 2023 – and that maybe we would see him become a better player down the road but that thought process ended pretty quickly. He was traded to the Broncos prior to the 2024 season and I think we know draft grade is coming. This is an F
1 – Trevor Lawrence was the number one pick in the 2021 draft and the hype around Lawrence as a prospect was the most we’ve seen since Andrew Luck. Unfortunately, Trevor didn’t have a good start to his career for several reasons and it was due in large part to the organization failing him from the start. Whether it was Urban Meyer as his head coach, or his top 3 receivers in his rookie year being Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Laquon Treadwell – the 4th was Dan Arnold by the way – it was a long year for the Jags. Things turned around in a big way in 2022 and even for a good chunk of 2023 as they started out 8-3 – before losing several games down the stretch which carried into 2024. Trevor Lawrence has not been the number one pick that he was hyped to be – and I fully acknowledge that. But I also think it’s fair to say the Jags have done a tremendous job in limiting his success. Again Trevor isn’t completely innocent within all of this – but this has been a tough situation from the minute he was drafted. I love the future with him, Liam Coen, and Brian Thomas Jr especially and I do believe the best is yet to come. Remember he is only 25 years old. But for being as highly touted of a prospect as he was – and for throwing just 69 touchdowns in 4 years along with a 22-38 record in his first 4 years well there needs to be a lot of context around this but ultimately – this grade gets a B. I hope you enjoyed and if you did please like and subscribe as only about 46% of people watching are subscribed and helps tremendously. Until next time, please be safe and have a great day. Love you guys
