After Seattle’s stunning run from +6000 preseason long shot to Super Bowl LX champion with a 29-13 win over the Patriots at Levi’s Stadium on February 8, 2026, the entire forecasting model cracked open. Roughly 15 franchises now hold realistic Lombardi equity, with multiple teams bunched between +700 and +5000 — a band so tight that a single playoff upset reshuffles the entire tier. Below are 15 contenders, ranked in ascending order of surprise.
15. Baltimore Ravens (+950 to +1200)
Feb 24, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Baltimore Ravens coach Jesse Minter speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
The Ravens climbing into the top tier of the Super Bowl LXI board is itself a small surprise. Sportsbook pricing has them anywhere from +950 to +1200, putting Lamar Jackson’s group right alongside the reigning champion Seahawks. Their presence in that cluster is the baseline that makes every other team’s repricing look dramatic by comparison.
14. Philadelphia Eagles (+1300 to +1600)
May 1, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni looks on during rookie minicamp at NovaCare Complex. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The Eagles sitting in the +1300 to +1600 range after a deep run in recent cycles is itself notable. Once entrenched as a top-three favorite, Philadelphia now occupies the same odds tier as the rebuilding Patriots and the Packers in a multi-team pileup. That’s not a fall from grace — it’s a market signal that the old NFC pecking order has been flattened.
13. Kansas City Chiefs (+1500)
New York Giants quarterback Russell Wilson (3) passes to a teammate before Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Jaylen Watson (35) can get to him, Sunday, September 21, 2025.
Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs at +1500 — outside the top four favorites — is one of the quietest shocks of the offseason. Kansas City finished 6-11 in 2025, their worst record since 2012, and missed the playoffs. The futures market has stopped treating the dynasty as inevitable.
12. Green Bay Packers (+1400 to +1600)
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed (11) catches a pass during practice on Wednesday, May 26, 2026, at Ray Nitschke Field in Ashwaubenon, Wis. Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
Green Bay sits inside a multi-team pileup with Philadelphia, New England, and the Chargers in the +1400 to +1600 range. That clustering reflects a coaching staff and quarterback room the market is now taking seriously as January threats rather than wild-card hopefuls.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (+1500 to +1600)
Jan 11, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) leaves the field after being sacked during the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots in an AFC Wild Card Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
Justin Herbert’s Chargers consistently get priced into contender tiers and consistently underdeliver in January. This year, the +1500 to +1600 line on the Chargers shares space with established powers, and the books have already installed them as 11.5-point Week 1 favorites over the Cardinals — the largest Week 1 spread since 2012, per ESPN Research.
10. Detroit Lions (+1500)
Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31), left, and safety Brian Branch (32) celebrate a play against Chicago Bears during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024.
Detroit’s place at +1500 represents one of the more sustained climbs in the league. A franchise that lived in the basement for decades is now a fixture on the contender board. That’s a structural change in the NFC, not a one-year blip.
9. San Francisco 49ers (+1700)
Feb 9, 2026; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers chief executive officer Al Guido (left) and Bay Area Host Committee president Zaileen Janmohamed at the Super Bowl LX host committee handoff press conference at Moscone Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
The 49ers at +1700 — outside the top tier — would have seemed unthinkable two seasons ago. Multiple media power rankings still treat San Francisco as a top-five NFC team, but the broader market disagrees, and the gap between expert consensus and sportsbook pricing is exactly the kind of disagreement that defines this cycle.
8. Houston Texans (+2000)
Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) after the game against the New England Patriots in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images
C.J. Stroud’s Texans at +2000 are the kind of mid-board contender that a few years ago wouldn’t have made the conversation. Now they’re flagged across multiple media power rankings as a legitimate AFC threat, a reminder that a young franchise QB on a rookie deal compresses Lombardi probability faster than almost any other variable.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2000)
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Nate Boerkircher (87) catches a pass during rookie minicamp at the Miller Electric Center, Saturday, May 9, 2026 in Jacksonville, Fla. Today was the second of a three day camp concluding Sunday.
The Jaguars at +2000 sit alongside Houston and Denver in the AFC’s secondary tier. In a flatter hierarchy, +2000 isn’t a throwaway number — it’s a price that bettors are actively exploiting on a roster the books believe is one playoff run away from breaking through.
6. Chicago Bears (+2500)
May 22, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears first-round draft pick Dillon Thieneman looks on before throwing out a ceremonial first pitch before a baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
The Bears at +2500 — comfortably inside the contender pool — is a stunning leap for a franchise that has spent most of the last decade in the basement. Chicago hasn’t been a futures-board fixture in years, and their rise is the kind of structural change that quietly widens the contender pool.
5. Buffalo Bills (+1000 to +1100)
A Buffalo Bills helmet sits on a yard marker during stretching before the Return of the Blue & Red practice at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Aug.1, 2025.
The Bills sitting in the contender tier isn’t shocking on its own — they’ve been a perennial AFC threat for half a decade. What’s surprising is how little daylight separates them from the top of the board. Buffalo at +1000 to +1100 isn’t a clear AFC favorite anymore; they’re just one of three or four teams sharing the front of the pack.
4. New England Patriots (+1300 to +1600)
May 9, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Kyle Dixon (83) makes a catch during the New England Patriots rookie camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
A year ago, the Patriots were a punchline. Now they’re Super Bowl LX runners-up after finishing 14-3, and they sit at +1300 to +1600 across major books for Super Bowl LXI. The Patriots also entered the 2025 season at +6000 — tied with Seattle for the second-largest preseason long shot to be crowned champion if they had won — proving the rebuild that was supposed to take three years took one.
3. Denver Broncos (+2000)
Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds looks to blitz against the Broncos. Jg 112419 Bills 39
Denver was an afterthought in most preseason 2025 conversations. Now they hold Super Bowl LXI odds at +2000, a complete repositioning for a franchise that was widely written off two seasons ago. Each move forced AFC rivals to respond, creating a feedback loop that kept the field crowded and volatile.
2. Los Angeles Rams (+700 to +900)
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell talks to inside linebacker Alex Anzalone (34) during the second half against Los Angeles Rams at the SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. on Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021.
The Rams as post-draft favorites for Super Bowl LXI is the kind of swing that used to take years to develop. FanDuel has the Rams at +700, ESPN at +950, and BetMGM at +900 — across all major books, they sit at or near the top of the board, displacing the reigning champion Seahawks. The surprise isn’t that the Rams are good. It’s that a team can leapfrog the team that just won the Lombardi Trophy, in May, before a single snap of the new season.
1. Seattle Seahawks (+750 to +1000)
Feb 11, 2026; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) reacts during Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl LX parade. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images
Here’s the genuinely shocking part: the team that just won the Super Bowl from +6000 preseason odds isn’t even the consensus favorite to repeat. The Seahawks sit at +750 to +1000 across major books for Super Bowl LXI — tied with the Rams or just behind them. A franchise that defied 60-to-1 odds to claim the Lombardi Trophy gets repriced as a co-favorite rather than the co-favorite. Seattle’s championship run wasn’t an outlier. It was a precedent — Sam Darnold capping a staggering comeback story, Kenneth Walker rushing for 135 yards as Super Bowl MVP, and a defense that sacked Drake Maye six times.
The Crowded Track Ahead
ORG XMIT: 02/03/02 — SUPERBOWL SUNDAY in New Orleans, LA. The New England Patriots vs the St. Louis Rams — Tom Brady hands the ball to David Patten in the 3rd quarter of Super Bowl XXXLVI. photo by Bob Breidenbach
Beyond these 15, the contender pool keeps swelling. Long-shot franchises like the Cowboys and Bengals at +3000, and the Vikings and Commanders at +5000, hover as potential risers into the Super Bowl LXI picture. If even two of them break through, the contender universe pushes toward 17 or 18 teams. The framework that separates people who understand this NFL from people who don’t is simple: stop looking for a favorite and start tracking the herd. Whoever wins Super Bowl LXI on February 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium will almost certainly come from a pack nobody can rank with confidence today. Which team on this list do you think is the most underrated — and which one is the biggest fraud? Drop your Lombardi pick in the comments.
Editor’s note: All Super Bowl LXI odds in this article reflect a snapshot from major sportsbooks (FanDuel, BetMGM, ESPN BET) as of late May 2026. Futures lines move daily based on injuries, trades, and public money, and ranges shown may span multiple books and dates. Check your preferred book for the current number before placing any wager.
