Fifty passes. Fifty completions. The ball came out clean, spiraling through the Hank Crisp Indoor Facility with the kind of rhythm that makes scouts lean forward in their chairs. Ty Simpson threw for over 40 minutes on March 26, missing just five of 55 attempts as charted by The Athletic. ESPN’s Field Yates described the session as exceptionally precise. The consensus No. 2 quarterback in the 2026 draft looked every bit the part. But something was off in the bleachers. Thirty-one of 32 general managers had somewhere else to be.
The Empty Seats That Mattered
Feb 24, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles sat alone among decision-makers. He was the only confirmed GM in attendance at Alabama’s pro day, per ESPN’s Courtney Cronin. Ohio State held its pro day the same day and drew more than a dozen NFL decision-makers, including multiple general managers and head coaches.
Simpson threw 50 of 55 completions to an audience of scouts and assistants, not the people who actually make draft picks. Representatives from all 32 teams sent somebody. But “somebody” and “the guy who signs the check” are two very different things when the draft sits four weeks away.
The Season That Split in Half
Jan 10, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) reacts in the fourth quarter in an NFC Wild Card Round game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
Maybe those GMs watched the tape instead. Through roughly his first two-thirds of the 2025 season, Simpson posted an elite touchdown-to-interception ratio and averaged well over 250 passing yards per game. Over the final stretch, his touchdown-to-interception ratio regressed, his passing yards dipped under 200 per game, and his efficiency numbers, completion rate and yards per attempt, fell noticeably.
That collapse happened against tougher competition, when Alabama needed him most. Multiple late-season games featured costly sack-fumble plays. A five-star recruit who waited three years behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe finally got his shot, then watched it fracture in real time.
The 44 Point Cliff
March 25, 2026; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Quarterback Ty Simpson throws during Pro Day in the Hank Crisp Indoor Practice Facility at the University of Alabama.
PFF graded Simpson’s clean-pocket play at 91.3, seventh among all draft-eligible quarterbacks. His grade under pressure: 47.6, ranking 29th. That 44 point gap is the entire Simpson paradox compressed into two numbers. Pro days measure the 91.3 version.
NFL Sundays deliver the 47.6 version. Simpson declared himself “absolutely” a first-round pick after his workout, then added, “there’s going to be a lot of questions around my name.” Both statements were true. Neither cancelled the other. And one GM attendance figure suggests the league already picked which statement it believes.
The Mechanic Without a Garage
Feb 27, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson (QB17) speaks to members of the media during the NFL Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images
Simpson’s decision-making earned an 8.0 out of 10 from PFF. His big-time throw percentage of 6.0 percent ranked 10th among draft quarterbacks. These are real tools. But on intermediate throws in the 10 to 20 yard range, his completion rate lagged badly behind other top draft quarterbacks, a weakness PFF highlighted in its breakdown.
That range is where NFL windows open and close in fractions of seconds. Simpson reads the field brilliantly when the pocket holds. When it collapses, his processing collapses with it. The pro day pocket never collapsed.
The Number Every GM Already Knows
Jan 1, 2026; Pasadena, CA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) passes against the Indiana Hoosiers in the first half of the 2026 Rose Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Fifteen. That is Simpson’s total career college starts. Studies of recent first-round quarterbacks suggest many enter the league with close to 30 college starts, roughly double Simpson’s experience level. Other limited-experience first-round quarterbacks in that span have often become cautionary tales for the teams that drafted them.
Simpson’s 3,567 passing yards put him among the most productive single-season passers in Alabama history, but he produced them in his only season as a starter. One year of tape. That is the entire sample.
The Jets’ Friday Desperation
Aug 31, 2017; Green Bay, WI, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Dan Orlovsky (8) throws a pass during warmups p before a game me against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
New York owns the 2nd and 16th overall picks. The Jets already evaluated Simpson at the combine. They watched his pro day. And they still scheduled a private workout for Friday, March 27. That is three separate evaluations of the same quarterback in roughly a month. The Rams, sitting at No. 13, have been consistently linked to Simpson in early mock drafts.
Dan Orlovsky went on air and said, “I think Ty Simpson is the best quarterback in this class.” Some teams see a franchise cornerstone. Others see a pattern about to repeat. Both camps are spending draft capital either way.
The Precedent Nobody Wants to Set
Dec 19, 2025; Norman, OK, USA; Detailed view of the jersey of Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) against the Oklahoma Sooners during the CFP National Playoff First Round at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
If Simpson succeeds, he rewrites the rulebook on quarterback evaluation. The usual experience threshold for first-round quarterbacks becomes a suggestion, not a law. Every one-year starter after him gets a longer look, a higher draft slot, a bigger contract.
If he fails, he reinforces one of the most damning patterns in modern draft history and buries the next limited-experience quarterback’s chances for years. Simpson’s gastritis dropped his weight into the 190s before the playoff. A cracked rib ended his CFP quarterfinal against Indiana. The body broke down exactly when the tape did. That is not coincidence. That is a system revealing its limits.
The Ghost Season Ahead
Dec 7, 2025; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (11) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Simpson’s pressure-to-sack rate of 18.3 percent ranked 34th among draft quarterbacks. At least one film breakdown has likened that tendency to what Justin Fields showed early in his career. His NFL comparison ceiling looks like Marc Bulger, with a floor in the Jimmy Garoppolo range. Neither name screams franchise savior.
Any team drafting Simpson in Round 1 is committing tens of millions of guaranteed dollars, in line with recent rookie quarterback contracts, to a quarterback whose best trait disappears the moment a defensive end gets home. Early-season stumbles trigger the “wasted pick” narrative within months. The clock starts ticking the second his name leaves the commissioner’s mouth.
Fifty Passes, One Answer, Zero Certainty
Dec 19, 2025; Norman, OK, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) runs the ball in the second half against the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family OK Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images
Simpson told reporters, “I really love the Jets.” The Jets responded by scheduling a third evaluation. That gap between affection and conviction tells the whole story. Thirty-one GMs skipped his pro day to watch Ohio State.
The one who showed up leads a Bears franchise picking early enough to act on what he saw. Four weeks remain. Somewhere a front office will override years of data on experience thresholds with 50 completions on a Wednesday afternoon. The question every fan should carry into draft night: would you bet your franchise on a studio recording?
Sources:
“2026 NFL Draft Breakdown: Alabama QB Ty Simpson.” Pro Football Focus, 24 Feb 2026.
“Alabama QB Ty Simpson says he’s ‘absolutely’ a 1st-round pick after his pro day workout.” NFL.com, 26 Mar 2026.
“Alabama QB Ty Simpson: I’m ‘Absolutely’ a 1st-Rounder in 2026 NFL Draft.” ESPN, 26 Mar 2026.
“Why Only One NFL GM Was at Ty Simpson’s Alabama Pro Day.” Marca, 25 Mar 2026.
“Alabama’s Ty Simpson Suffered Fractured Rib During CFP Loss to Indiana.” Yahoo Sports, 1 Jan 2026.
“Ty Simpson Reportedly Regained Weight Ahead of NFL Combine After Dealing With Gastritis.” Bleacher Report, 22 Feb 2026.
