The Washington Commanders are set to pick seventh in the upcoming draft on April 23. Everyone in the organization has a sense of anticipation and maybe a little anxiety about what is next. Last season, the defense gave up 27 points per game. That number left fans frustrated and the front office scrambling for answers. The response was bold: spending $100 million to bring in pass rusher Odafe Oweh during free agency. Now, nearly all mock drafts point toward Ohio State safety Caleb Downs as the next move. The plan carries high stakes: two decisions, one vision, and a team that cannot afford to miss.
The Collapse That Forced Their Hand
Feb 24, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Washington Commanders general manager Adam Peters speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Giving up about 432 points over the 2025 season, which is what 27 points per game adds up to, put the roster under immense pressure after investing the No. 2 overall pick on quarterback Jayden Daniels. Washington secured its franchise quarterback. The defense continued to let games slip away. GM Adam Peters, who found four starters in two drafts including a Pro Bowler, saw the secondary allow too many big plays. Incremental fixes would not solve the problem.
$100 Million On The Edge
Jan 11, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Odafe Oweh (98) and Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack (52) tackle New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) as he throws a pass during the second half in an AFC Wild Card Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
Most teams approach free agency and the draft as separate processes. The Commanders treated both as parts of a single plan. Oweh received a four-year deal with $68 million guaranteed, addressing the edge rush. This move provided the defense with a reliable foundation. However, a lock on the front door does not protect everything without an alarm system. Heading into April, Washington’s biggest draft needs were wide receiver, cornerback, and center. None of those are likely to be available or worth the pick at No. 7.
The Alarm System Wears No. 7
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs catches a ball during Pro Day for NFL scouts at the Woody Hayes Athletics Center on March 25, 2026.
Caleb Downs is the reigning Jim Thorpe Award winner. Over three seasons, including one with Alabama and two with Ohio State, he built a reputation as one of the best coverage safeties in the country. In 2025, he posted an 87.0 coverage grade and allowed zero touchdowns. Dane Brugler of The Athletic called him a “human missile.” Commanders analyst Logan Paulsen added: “He is a football player’s football player who is the most instinctive player in the class.” These numbers show that Downs stands out among first-round safeties. Selecting Downs would give the Commanders a crucial element for their defensive system.
The Paradox Nobody Can Explain
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs speaks during the Cotton Bowl Media Day at AT&T Stadium in Dallas prior to the College Football Playoff matchup against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 29, 2025.
The draft process often overlooks proven production in favor of testing numbers. Despite Downs’ achievements, some experts project a slide because he lacks top-flight testing marks. Some believe he could fall to No. 10. Teams frequently prioritize athletic testing over game performance. Downs’ on-field play demonstrates elite ability, but his combine times have drawn skepticism. The NFL continues to value testing results, which may allow Washington to select Downs at pick seven.
Five Positions, One Player
Dec 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Odafe Oweh (98) celebrates a sack against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Downs played multiple roles in college: at the line, in the box, wide corner, slot corner, and free safety. This versatility adds value when paired with Oweh’s presence up front. A disruptive edge rusher needs a safety who can close passing windows quickly, and Downs fits that requirement. He also has the “green dot” role, handling defensive play calls and allowing the secondary to react to pressure in real time. Oweh increases the pressure, Downs provides coverage, and this combination could transform Washington’s defense.
Ohio State’s Historic Assembly Line
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs (2) celebrates with wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) during warm-ups prior to the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 31, 2025.
Ohio State could have four players—Reese, Downs, Styles, and Tate—selected in the top 10 this year. The last time a program produced four top-10 picks was Notre Dame in 1946, and before that, Michigan State in 1967. Nearly 80 years have passed since a college sent this much talent into the first round. Columbus now stands out as a destination for players with NFL ambitions. For the Commanders, selecting Downs connects the team to one of the most consistent pipelines in college football.
The Blueprint Other Teams Will Copy
Mar 1, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; The NFL Scouting Combine logo on the field at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Draft success depends on building a team with interconnected moves. Free agency addresses one need, the draft another, and both should reflect the coaching staff’s philosophy. Washington’s $100 million investment in edge pressure and a top-7 pick focused on coverage intelligence could establish a new standard for defensive rebuilding. If this approach proves successful, NFC East rivals may follow suit and push defensive talent prices higher by 2027.
The Cap Squeeze Nobody Mentions
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs talks to Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn during Pro Day for NFL scouts at the Woody Hayes Athletics Center on March 25, 2026.
Washington has six draft picks this year: one each in rounds 1, 3, 5, 6, 6, and 7. This limited draft capital leaves holes at receiver, cornerback, and center. The major investment on defense also reduces future cap space for needs such as offensive line and tight end in 2027. League insiders report that the Commanders want to trade down from the seventh pick to add flexibility. However, most mock drafts project them staying at seven and selecting Downs. The team faces a choice between flexibility and securing a franchise safety.
Two Moves, One Verdict
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs leaves the field following the Cotton Bowl Media Day at AT&T Stadium in Dallas prior to the College Football Playoff matchup against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 29, 2025.
The Commanders built their offense around Jayden Daniels and are now applying a similar strategy on defense with an emphasis on disruption at the line and coverage downfield. Oweh and Downs are designed to function as complementary pieces of a broader plan. If both players meet expectations, Washington’s defense could improve significantly compared to last season. If one fails, the other becomes an expensive addition with limited impact. Fans may pay attention to the draft pick, but the real measure will be whether the new defensive system succeeds.
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Sources:
Schefter, Adam. “Commanders land Odafe Oweh on 4-year, $100M deal, agents say.” ESPN, March 8, 2026.
Jones, Mike. “Odafe Oweh signs $100 million contract with Commanders, per reports.” USA Today, March 9, 2026.
Keim, John. “Washington Commanders 2026 NFL draft picks, biggest needs.” ESPN, April 12, 2026.
Brugler, Dane. “The Beast: 2026 NFL Draft Guide.” The Athletic, April 2026.
“Caleb Downs: College football career, stats, highlights, records.” NCAA.com, April 17, 2026.
Fitzgerald, Jason. “Odafe Oweh Contract Details.” Over the Cap, March 2026.
