The Patriots are coming off their worst 5 year stretch since the pre-Bledsoe era, winning only 35.7% of their games since Brady’s departure. However, they’ve done just about everything possible this offseason to change that.
The hiring of Patriots legend Mike Vrabel as head coach and the return of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator seemed ordained by a higher power. They proceeded to have, arguably, the best offseason in the league, thanks to their free agent signings and the draft.
Bringing in proven veteran players like Stefon Diggs, Milton Williams, Morgan Moses, Carlton Davis, and Robert Spillane sets the team up for better leadership within the locker room and provides examples for the younger players to follow and learn from. Then, the Patriots’ offseason transformation came to fruition the weekend of the draft. The Patriots went on a truly inspired run of picks with Will Campbell, TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Jared Wilson, and potentially the biggest steal of the draft, Bradyn Swinson. All that’s left is to see how Drake Maye develops after showcasing some flashes and steady improvement throughout his first season.
Now that the stage has been set for the current state of the team, let’s go week-by-week and predict the New England Patriots’ 2025 Season!
Week 1 – Sun 09/07 – 1:00PM EDT:
vs Las Vegas Raiders
Both teams aim to make a statement in this game and set the tone for the season. Despite not beating the Patriots at home since 1994, this will be a hard-fought game with the new Raiders head coach and former Patriots head coach, Pete Carroll, at the helm. Despite the additions to the Raiders’ offense, this Patriots team will capitalize on the loss of Christian Wilkins and the underwhelming secondary, resulting in a close but decisive win for the Pats.
Prediction: Patriots Win
Record: 1-0
Week 2 – Sun 09/14 – 1:00 PM EDT:
@ Miami Dolphins
Playing the Dolphins in Miami has been a constant challenge for the Patriots. Since 2000, the Patriots are 9-15 in Miami. Miami has invested in its front seven over the last few years, becoming a nuisance for the offensive lines of the entire AFC East. Given the combination of the overhauled roster and staff, as well as the Dolphins’ frequent early-season success, it’s safe to assume the Patriots will drop this game.
Prediction: Patriots Loss
Record: 1-1
Week 3 – Sun 09/21 – 1:00 PM EDT:
vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite having weapons like Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Allen Lazard, and Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers saw little success with the Jets, even losing a game to the Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots in Week 8. Now joining the Steelers at 41 years old, Rodgers is surrounded by a less talented offense, which will be exploited by a much-improved Patriots defense. Expect this to be a low-scoring game with time of possession being critical as the Patriots face an elite but aging defense, and the Steelers’ less talented roster face a more well-rounded one. With Stefon Diggs being ahead of schedule in his recovery, the talented backfield duo of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, and Drake Maye’s development under Josh McDaniels, the offense should be able squeek out a win against this elite defense.
Prediction: Patriots Win
Record: 2-1
Week 4 – Sun 09/28 – 1:00 PM EDT:
vs Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were another team that made notable improvements to their roster this offseason. However, most of the additions do not significantly impact the Patriots’ roster compared to their own moves, as many of their defensive signings specialize in either run or pass defense. This gives the Patriots plenty of chances to take advantage of mismatches with their more well-rounded team. We should see the first decisive win by the Vrabel-era Patriots.
Prediction: Patriots Win
Record: 3-1
Week 5 – Sun 10/05 – 8:20 PM EDT:
at Buffalo Bill
The Patriots’ most significant obstacle in the AFC East remains one of the top teams in the league. The Bills are coming off a 13-4 season, despite an expected down year, during which Josh Allen won MVP. They will only be tougher this year with upgrades on both sides of the ball. The Patriots, despite their offseason success, are not ready to overthrow the Bills as kings of the AFC East.
Prediction: Patriots Loss
Record: 3-2
Week 6 – Sun 10/12 – 4:25 PM EDT:
at New Orleans Saints
Frankly, the Saints are in an untenable situation. They reached on Tyler Shough, an injury-prone quarterback who didn’t play a full season until his final season of college at 25 years old. This is the year the Saints’ poor cap management and draft classes come crashing down on them. Any wins they manage to get this season will not be pretty. This Patriots roster and coaching staff should not have a difficulty with this Saints team.
Prediction: Patriots Win
Record: 4-2
Week 7 – Sun 10/19 – 1:00 PM EDT:
at Tennessee Titans
This is a revenge game for Mike Vrabel. He understands the Titans roster better than anyone else not on the Titans’ staff. The new additions to the Titans’ roster do little to move the needle. This barely changed Titans defense allowed the 3rd most points in the league last year, and despite what the numbers say, their low number of passing yards allowed comes from teams simply being able to run the ball down their throats all the way to the endzone. While not a complete blowout, this Titans team provides little challenge for this new Patriots roster.
Prediction: Patriots Win
Record: 5-2
Week 8 – Sun 10/26 – 1:00 PM EDT:
vs Cleveland Browns
There’s not much to say here. At this point, we’re all familiar with the travesty that is the Cleveland Browns since they traded for Deshaun Watson. If the Patriots somehow lost to this team, there would be a riot in Gillette Stadium. Jamari Thrash legacy game?
Prediction: Patriots Win
Record: 6-2
Week 9 – Sun 11/02 – 1:00 PM EST:
vs Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta has done just about everything in its power to become a Super Bowl contender. If Michael Penix Jr takes the second-year leap like I expect, this Patriots roster is going to be in for a rough game. They ranked 4th in rushing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average) in 2024 and made major moves to draft two first-round pass rushers in this year’s draft. The Falcons will be a problem at every level of the game. The only way I see the Patriots winning this is if Penix doesn’t progress as expected or if he is injured.
Prediction: Patriots Loss
Record: 6-3
Week 10 – Sun 11/09 – 1:00 PM EST:
at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ever since Baker Mayfield led that game-winning drive for the Rams, he’s become one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He is coming off a season where he threw for 4,500 yds, 41 TDs (43 TOT TDs), and 16 INTs. With the addition of Emeka Egbuka at WR and Hasaan Reddick, a healthy Buccaneers roster is a force to be reckoned with. They ranked 6th in DVOA while defending the run even before signing Reddick. The Patriots’ only chance in this game will come from attacking their young and less experienced defensive backs and hoping their defense can stop the four-headed monster Tampa Bay has on offense.
Prediction: Patriots Loss
Record: 6-4
Week 11 – Thu 11/13 – 8:15 PM EST:
vs New York Jets
The Jets are aiming for a bounce-back year, especially on defense. They ranked 3rd in Defensive DVOA in 2023, but plummeted to 21st in 2024. Assuming former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn gets them on track as the new head coach, we’re going to see some good ol’ fashioned smash-mouth football. Expect a low-scoring game where turnovers decide the outcome. Even with the Patriots’ lackluster pass-rush, Justin Fields frequently turns pressure into sacks (20.3% Pressure-to-Sack ratio per PFF), which will more than likely be the difference maker for this game.
Prediction: Patriots Win
Record: 7-4
Week 12 – Sun 11/23 – 1:00 PM EST
at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals ranked 5th in offensive DVOA last year, notably 4th in passing offense. Assuming a deal gets done with Trey Hendrickson, their pass rush combo of him and first-round pick Shemar Stewart will provide trouble for this Patriots offensive line. However, this Cincinnati secondary isn’t the least bit inspiring, so it’s safe to say that this will be a high-scoring game that is ultimately bailed out by the elite trio of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.
Prediction: Patriots Loss
Record: 7-5
Week 13 – Mon 12/01 – 8:15 PM EST:
vs New York Giants
The Giants have the best defensive line in football going into this season, full stop (11th in rushing DVOA in 2024. Drafting a talent like Abdul Carter just makes this front seven terrifying. Outside of that, Malik Nabers and the addition of Jevon Holland are the only parts of this team that are even remotely intimidating. I expect this Patriots defense to manhandle the Giants offense and rely on Drake Maye’s magical deep ball abilities and his underrated rushing ability to win this game for New England.
Prediction: Patriots Win
Record: 8-5
Week 14 – BYE
The Patriots have two TOUGH games back-to-back in Week 15 and Week 16, so this bye week could not come at a better time. The progress of Will Campbell, TreyVeon Henderson, Kyle Williams, and Bradyn Swinson will be the deciding factors in this final stretch. The Patriots need to win two of their next four games to have a chance at a playoff appearance for the first time since losing to Buffalo in 2021.
Week 15 – Sun 12/14 – 1:00 PM EST:
vs Buffalo Bills
This feels like a trap game for Buffalo. This Patriots roster has a chip on its shoulder now that it’s in playoff contention. The Bills are going to need to bring their A-game. Barring breakouts from most of the Patriots’ 2025 draft class, it will just be enough to defeat a refreshed Patriots team in a nailbiter that just might secure the Bills the AFC East title once again.
Prediction: Patriots Loss
Record: 8-6
Week 16 – Sun 12/21 – 1:00 PM EST:
at Baltimore Ravens
Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson is hungry for a Super Bowl after falling short the last few years. Their bolstered secondary may just be what finally carries them over the hump and to their first title since 2012. The Ravens are just a well-constructed roster from top to bottom, and the Patriots are just too early in their rebuild to conquer this kind of roster. The end result will be a pretty substantial loss by the Pats, and put them into now-or-never territory for the playoffs.
Prediction: Patriots Loss
Record: 8-7
Week 17 – Sun 12/28 – 1:00 PM EST:
at New York Jets
Coming off back-to-back losses, it’s undeniable that this Patriots team will be determined to make the playoffs, come hell or high water. Lessons learned from their first meeting and development by the rookies will lead to a definitive win by the Pats and put them one game away from their first double-digit win season since 2021.
Prediction: Patriots Win
Record: 9-6
Week 18 – TBD:
vs Miami Dolphins
Now or never is here, and the Patriots have chosen now. It’s hard to imagine a reality where the Dolphins win a Week 18 game in Foxborough. The Patriots are playing for a playoff spot, and they will play hard. This rookie class, with a year under their belt and a fully healthy Stefon Diggs, will provide a lot of trouble for this Miami team that famously struggles in cold-weather games. Depending on how the rest of the AFC has played out, the Patriots will likely have landed a Wildcard bid and make their first playoff appearance since Mac Jones’s rookie year.
Prediction: Patriots Win
Record: 10-7
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