There are always one or two teams that come out of nowhere and make the playoffs. Last year featured two surprising playoff teams in the Chargers, who went 5-12 in 2023, and the Commanders, who finished 4-13. Los Angeles came away with six more wins last season, and Washington increased their win total by eight.
There are a variety of factors that contribute to a massive one-year turnaround. For example, Jayden Daniels was a complete revelation for the Commanders, and Jim Harbaugh had a similar impact for the Chargers. While neither team won their division last year, they made significant strides and would have come out on top if they played in the AFC South, NFC South, or NFC West. Will Cam Ward have a similar impact on the Titans? Will Mike Vrabel lead the Patriots back to the promised land? How about Pete Carroll in Vegas?
Everyone loves a good underdog story. Which last-place teams have the best chance to pull off a miraculous Cinderella season in 2025? Who will be picking near the top of the draft once again?
8. Cleveland Browns
The AFC North is shaping up to be one of the league’s most competitive divisions… and then there’s the Browns. Even in a crowded conference, the Ravens are a near-lock for double-digit wins. The Bengals are due for a bounce-back as long as Joe Burrow is under center. The Steelers are regular overperformers who just signed a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. The 41-year-old might be washed, but he would still undeniably be an upgrade over Russell Wilson (who is soaked). Then there’s the Browns.
My hot take for the 2025 NFL season… Cleveland has more QBs start games for them than total wins. You know what they say- when you roster six QBs, you probably don’t have one that you feel good about. What’s that? Oh, they’ve never said that before? That’s just because they’ve never seen a QB room like this one.
The Browns have a very long road ahead of them this year. It would be surprising if they find themselves anywhere other than last place in their division. Even with a relatively modest schedule, I just don’t see it happening for the Dawg Pound this year.
7. New York Giants
Speaking of relatively modest schedules, the Giants… don’t have one of those this year. The schedule certainly doesn’t do them any favors, as they have an absolute gauntlet from start to finish.
Not only do the G-Men have to play in a competitive NFC East, but they also have to play the vaunted NFC North and AFC West. Barring a Russell Wilson renaissance, it feels safe to say they won’t be favored in any of those 8 games. The defense should be solid, but I’m not sure it will matter with an offense that will probably struggle to put up 20 points.
I like what the Giants did this offseason, and I think they will be competitive in a lot of those games (largely because of their additions to the defensive line). However, it’s tough to go from worst to first with the league’s most difficult strength of schedule. I don’t like their odds one bit.
6. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are another team that had a solid offseason. In fact, they’d probably find themselves a few spots higher if they were in a less talented division. They might’ve played well against the Chiefs in recent years, but they’re still the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes. Geno Smith might be a major upgrade over Aiden O’Connell or Gardner Minshew, but he’s certainly no Mahomes.
The Broncos and Chargers are also both coming off seasons in which they won double-digit games and made the playoffs. They also got a lot better in the offseason. I don’t see Las Vegas making a lot of noise in their tough division, and that makes a worst-to-first run very unlikely.
Pete Carroll was the perfect hire for this team, and they have enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to keep any game competitive. However, I don’t see them coming out on top in enough of them to justify a higher spot in these rankings.
5. New Orleans Saints
This is another one that doesn’t seem likely. Like, at all. I think they are a bit more likely to make some noise in the NFC South than the Giants and Raiders are in their respective divisions, but that has more to do with their division rivals being (slightly) less impressive than it is a testament to the Saints’ roster. The Giants and Raiders honestly should field more competitive teams.
New Orleans is putting all their chips into the Tyler Shough bucket. It will supposedly be a three-man competition, but Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler don’t move the needle for me whatsoever. I think they are going to sink (more likely) or swim with Shough this year.
I like the Buccaneers a lot. They have had some strong drafts in recent years, and I think they have a good chance of finishing first in the division. I also think the Falcons will be solid, but the Saints have had their number in recent years. Bryce Young made strides with the Panthers last year, but I think they are still a few years away from fielding a playoff contender. The Saints have a shot to make some noise in the division, but it’s still quite a long one.
4. Tennessee Titans
It feels fitting that the Titans find themselves in the middle of this list. After all, a wise man once said…
All jokes aside, I think we’ve reached the first team that has a chance to make some noise in their division. Ironically, the Titans are the least talked-about team of the bunch. Likewise, Cam Ward is also the least talked-about first overall pick since Kansas City selected Eric Fisher 12 years ago. The schedule makers didn’t even give Tennessee a single primetime game on the docket.. That honestly feels downright disrespectful.
Am I going to put money on the Titans to win the division? No, but that’s only because I prefer my donations to be via eight-leg parlays where I lose on one leg. I’m not going to scoff at anyone making that bet if they like the longshot odds, though. The fact of the matter is that no one in that division scares me. Houston should field a solid team, and I think C.J. Stroud will bounce back strong after a disappointing sophomore season. However, I still have questions about that offensive line. They’d better hope they can keep Stroud healthy.
The other two teams in the division are the main reason I’m slightly optimistic about the Titans, though. The Jaguars and Colts could sneakily be two of the worst teams in the league this year. Trevor Lawrence has done absolutely nothing through four years that would justify him being (tied for) the NFL’s second-highest-paid QB. I’ve also begun to envision what a freak Anthony Richardson would be at receiver for Indianapolis. Just imagine how many underneath passes he could overthrow on trick plays and out of the wildcat.
3. New England Patriots
I know the AFC East features one of the league’s best teams in the Bills, but the Patriots have something the other teams on this list (to this point) have not had: a talented young QB who has proven that he can elevate the play of those around him. Do I think Drake Maye will propel them past Buffalo this season? No, but I’m not willing to rule out the hypothetical if all goes well for New England this year.
Maye isn’t the only reason the Patriots could have a quick turnaround, either. Mike Vrabel was the perfect hire to get the most out of that team, and his previous ties to New England should help him win over their increasingly impatient (and spoiled) fan base. They also had one of the league’s best drafts and spent money like it was going out of style in free agency.
The Dolphins and Jets are not easy outs, but they strike me more as .500 teams than ones you need to worry too much about. I think that’s ultimately right around where New England winds up, too, but I’m not ruling out a season where they catch fire and randomly win 12 games. It might not be likely, but it could happen, especially with the third-easiest schedule on the docket.
2. Chicago Bears
Once again, the Bears are one of the league’s most popular sleeper teams. The optimism feels real this time, though, and that’s mostly because they did the least Bears thing possible; They backed up the Brinks truck for the big fish on the coaching market. Ben Johnson still has to prove that he can lead an entire team, but he should provide an immediate jolt to the offense at the very least.
The only thing stymying the hype around Chicago is the division they play in. Winning the NFC North is going to be no easy task. Last year, they became the first division in NFL history in which three teams had at least 11 wins. As crazy as it sounds, they all got better on paper in the offseason. Though the Lions took a massive hit to their coaching staff, to the Bears’ benefit. The Bears played the division well, too, and they were two late-game heartbreaks (against Green Bay and Detroit) from finishing 3-3 against the North.
Chicago would probably be favored to win many of the divisions listed to this point. They’re that good on paper, and they finally have a coaching staff to get the most out of their players. The fact that they play in the league’s most competitive division is the only thing keeping them out of the top spot.
1. San Francisco 49ers
Just about everything indicates the 49ers will have a massive bounce-back year. Their best player (and offensive engine) should be healthy after an injury-riddled 2024 season. They have a potent combination of a very talented roster and one of the league’s best coaching staffs. They were also graced with the easiest schedule in the NFL this year. Tough not to be optimistic about their chances.
The NFC West will be competitive. There’s no doubt of that. The Rams should be good to very good again, the Cardinals are going to be a tough out, and Seattle will be solid if Sam Darnold can prove that he can survive without Kevin O’Connell’s guidance. Still, you could make a strong case that San Francisco is the best of the bunch. They were in the thick of the wildcard hunt last season until a late-season collapse, after all.
The oddsmakers certainly seem to have a lot of faith in the 49ers, too. They have the best odds to win the division (+150) and third-best odds to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (+650). It’s pretty rare that a team as talented as this one is coming off a last-place finish, so there’s good reason to believe they’re the top candidate to come in first this year.
