Draft grades are one of the most traditional methods for evaluating a team’s Draft haul. They’re an easier way to tell fans who haven’t watched 200+ players whether the ones their team selected are good or not. I don’t like them very much because I think they paint an incomplete evaluation.
For my first point, we don’t even have to go that far into memory lane. In 2023, the Lions made picks that surprised the majority of analysts. Chad Reuter, from NFL.com, gave the team a C+ for their class, with the selections of Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell in the first round going against positional value, and Sam LaPorta over Michael Mayer and Luke Musgrave as “interesting”.
One year later, Chad Reuter and Eric Edholm had the same group as the fourth best in the league with an A- grade. The opposite happened to the Dallas Cowboys, who got a B+ right after the 2023 Draft and a D+ one year later, the third-worst class according to them.
Don’t Grade Before Their First Snap
This isn’t a shot at them in particular, it’s just to show why I don’t like giving out draft grades. When people say that a team had a good or bad class, it’s usually because they are evaluating according to their own big boards, seeing where they had the players ranked and who was also available. But that doesn’t tell the story of whether the player selected is good or not, just where a particular analyst had him ranked.
The Minnesota Vikings and Donovan Jackson are a good example of that. A 5-star player coming off high school, Jackson was a three-year starter for the Ohio State Buckeyes and was seen as one of the best guards in the nation. When LT Josh Simmons suffered an injury, Jackson was asked to replace him and was a key contributor for the eventual national champions. With the way he played at left tackle, some experts evaluated him as a tackle prospect or at least someone who could do both.
This dropped him down on a couple of big boards because of some issues he had when playing tackle, which is totally normal for someone who was a guard his entire college career. Had he stayed at guard, he’d likely have been seen in the same group with Tyler Booker and Grey Zabel as the best interior linemen in this class.
But very few of the struggles he had at tackle, especially in pass protection, happened when he was inside or were problems guards usually have. But because he showed these on his tape last season in a position he had never played in, and scouts believed he could be a tackle in the league, his grade dropped at least a little.
Focus On Context
So, when the Vikings took Donovan Jackson 24th overall, part of the expert media wasn’t expecting it, because they had him as an early/mid second-round player (in a class that everyone said that the 20-45 range had very similar graded players, by the way). Because of that, most of the grades were in the B range. But if we take into consideration who Jackson is at guard, how the board presented itself to the Vikings, and how their roster is shaped, this could easily be an A grade.
I also believe it’s unfair to grade players before they even have their first minicamp, as we judge them only based on the things I said before. On the other hand, it is very easy to grade a class when we know what the players have become.
Hindsight Is 20/20
We all know that Tom Brady went from the 199th pick in the Draft to the most accomplished player in NFL history, winning 7 Super Bowls, 3 MVPs, and breaking countless records. Even if you had that knowledge and went back in the past to select him for your team with the first overall pick, it’s more likely than not that you would be fired before the first round ended.
You don’t even have to be that drastic, but the point is that most players were drafted where they were for a reason. Who they became in the league is due to their hard work, the coaching staff they had, how they were used, and, for many late-round picks (including Brady), luck. So, using knowledge acquired years later to say that a player drafted in the fifth round should actually have been selected in the first round sounds easy. Go back to 2023 and say in March that Puka Nacua should be picked in the Top 10, and almost everyone would say you’re crazy.
I have nothing against those who give grades to draft classes or those who like to read/listen to them (especially because I like them). Here at Football Analysis, we have great articles about that, and Garrett publishes great videos on that topic. I just ask for everyone to consider the context of the team and the player more because context in the NFL is king.
