In the NFL, chaos is king. That’s a big part of the charm, anything can happen during any given season.
One of the best illustrations of this is the wide variety of teams that make the playoffs from year to year. Get this: on average, about 4 NFL teams that made the playoffs the previous season will go on to miss the playoffs the following season.
Today, we’re going to try and sift through the chaos and figure out the 4 playoff teams from last year that will miss this year, as well as the 4 teams that will be replacing them. We’ll look at who’s “in” and who’s “out” for the 2025 NFL playoffs.
This is one of my favorite offseason exercises, and should be a lot of fun in what’s looking like a wide-open 2025 season. Let’s do this!
In: Dallas Cowboys
For better or worse, I’m hitching my wagon to the Dallas Cowboys this season. There are a lot of ingredients for a playoff push, notably, a great passing game and a great pass rush.
I believe this could be one of the most exciting passing attacks in the league this season. Dak Prescott looks to get back on track after an injury-marred 2024, and is one of the very best quarterbacks in the league when healthy. Hey, just 2 years ago he finished 2nd in MVP voting and led the league in touchdown passes. I think he’s a phenomenal player who gets unfairly criticized because of the star on his helmet.
Dak will be helped by what may be one of the best receiving corps of his career. Trade acquisition George Pickens is the exact type of receiver the Cowboys have been looking for since Dez Bryant: a big-bodied, aggressive outside receiver who excels deep downfield. Pickens is not a perfect player by any means, but is the perfect complement to CeeDee Lamb, who dominates out of the slot.
Defensively, the Cowboys boast one of the very best players in the NFL in Micah Parsons. Even while missing 4 games due to injury, Parsons still managed 12 sacks on the season and can take over a game at any moment.
A fully healthy Parsons and intriguing rookie Donovan Ezeiruaku could quickly become one of the best pass-rushing duos in the league, with defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa adding some pressure up the middle. I also liked taking Shavon Revel Jr. in the 3rd round of the draft. This is a talented Cowboys defense that I think is due for a bounce-back in 2025.
Is this finally the Cowboys’ year? Well, probably not. There are still some serious questions on whether Dallas will be able to stop the run effectively, and they have one of the most unproven running back groups in the league. But this is a good-looking roster, with high-end talent at some of the most important positions in the game. 10, even 11 wins is very much on the table.
Out: Washington Commanders
The 2024 Washington Commanders were one of the most fun teams that I have seen in my time as an NFL fan. A downtrodden franchise, boosted by new ownership and a star rookie quarterback, making an improbable run to the NFC Championship Game is about as good as it gets from a neutral’s perspective.
With that being said, it brings me no joy to be the Fun Police and say that this team seems due for a regression. Personally, I struggle to see them repeating last year’s performance, and would not be surprised if they fell out of the playoffs entirely. I think this is a good, not great roster that caught a lot of breaks and has a fatal flaw in their defense.
Last year, the Commanders managed to skate by with poor play on the defensive side of the ball. The Commanders’ D ranked 22nd in defensive EPA, 18th in defensive success rate and 18th in points allowed. In the playoffs, they let up 31 points to the Lions despite Detroit turning the ball over 5 times and were lit up for 55 points by the Eagles the following week. In the regular season, they went 1-4 against playoff teams, giving up an average of 30.8 points per game in those 5 contests.
Even after trading for Marshon Lattimore midseason, this defense just did not have the talent to hang with the league’s top offenses, and arguably got worse this offseason after losing Jonathan Allen and Jeremy Chinn in free agency.
Will the offense be good enough to make up for it again? Maybe. On paper, Washington made some big moves, bringing in Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil via trade. While both are big names, they’re also aging players coming of some of the worst play of their careers. I won’t rule out one, or even both of them returning to form with a change of scenery, but I’m not counting on it either. Standout guard Sam Cosmi’s health is also up in the air after tearing his ACL in January.
The receiving corps also got a little thinner after the departures of Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheus. Terry McClaurin is still a great top option, but will a soon to be 35 year old Zach Ertz still be as effective? I think this Commanders offense will be good, but I am skeptical of them repeating as a top-5 unit.
Very little of this take has to do with what I think of Jayden Daniels. I thought Daniels has proven to be a great NFL quarterback, and I think he’ll be one for a long time. But as we saw with CJ Stroud and the Texans last season, development and growth are never linear. Just because Daniels was great in his rookie year does not mean he’ll be even better in year two. There are bumps along the way. I think the 2025 Commanders could be headed for one.
In: Las Vegas Raiders
The sleeping giant may finally be waking up.
The Raiders are one of the proudest and most storied franchises in the NFL, but have fallen on hard times in the 2000s. Believe it or not, they have the 3rd worst winning percentage in the league since 2000. But things are looking up.
Vegas had a terrific offseason, and it all starts at the top. Pete Carroll is a proven winner anywhere he’s coached, and he’s built a great staff around him with new OC Chip Kelly and retaining DC Patrick Graham. New GM Jon Spytek is one of the league’s most respected minds and deserves a good share of credit for Tampa Bay’s excellent run of draft classes. I love the roster this regime has put together.
Geno Smith is a massive upgrade at quarterback. He’s more than just 2022’s feel-good story, Smith is a legitimately great QB who has played at about a top-10 level since breaking out a few years ago. Smith is surrounded by a good collection of weapons, with two of the best prospects in recent memory in Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers, alongside the steady Jakobi Meyers.
Defensively, if this line stays healthy, look out. Last season, Maxx Crosby missed 5 games due to injury, while Christian Wilkins missed 12 and Malcolm Koonce missed the entire season. When those 3 are on the field, this is one the best fronts in football and capable of wrecking offensive gameplans.
And it’s worth noting that even with their injuries last year, the Raiders defense was still surprisingly effective, ranking 16th in defensive EPA. I think this unit is a sleeper to break into the top 10 this season.
It is fair to point out there are still a few question marks on this roster. The offensive line is alright, but is really counting on young players such as DJ Glaze and Charles Grant to develop quickly. Same can be said for the secondary, which brought in Jeremy Chinn but needs rookie corner Darien Porter to step up as a key starter immediately.
But for the first time in my football watching life, I have faith in the Raiders organization. I like the people in charge, both in the front office and the coaching staff. There’s a good quarterback under center. The defensive line is top-notch. The Raiders are here. It’s time to just win, baby.
Out: Los Angeles Chargers
I’ll be honest, back in February, I would have never guessed that I would be putting the Chargers here. The Bolts were coming off a surprising playoff berth and headed into the offseason with about $66 million in cap space, plenty of money to plug holes in the roster.
Things just didn’t break their way.
The Chargers struck out on landing any of the big free agent wide receivers, with Chris Godwin opting to stay in Tampa and Davante Adams going to LA… but to play for the Rams. They also lost a few key contributors on defense, seeing Joey Bosa, Kristian Fulton and Poona Ford leave in free agency.
With the dust of the offseason now settled, the Chargers find themselves in the same spot they were last season: a pretty good team, but with a few glaring weaknesses. The offensive line is led by a phenomenal tackle duo… but the interior is subpar at best. Ladd McConkey looks like a budding superstar… but there’s no proven option on the outside. The defense is really well-coached… but doesn’t have top-tier talent that can take over a game. Their playoff loss against the Texans was a sobering reminder that the Chargers still have a ways to go.
Overall, I still really like the direction of this team. Harbaugh has built a great coaching staff, they’ve got their franchise quarterback and their 2024 draft class looks excellent after 1 year. I’m just not sure that they’ll hit 11 wins again this season.
While the rest of the AFC West made major strides this offseason, I feel like the Chargers were unable to capitalize during the offseason and fell behind the pack a little. I get it, this isn’t Madden, they can’t simply fix every single need in one offseason. That’s just the way the cookie crumbled. Someone has to finish last in this division, and I think it will be the Chargers.
In: Carolina Panthers
A few years ago, I would tell anyone who was willing to listen that the Carolina Panthers were going to be a surprise playoff team. I liked a lot of their young pieces and thought they could rise to the top of a weak NFC South.
That year was 2023. The Panthers would go on to have the worst record in the NFL. But don’t worry, this time I swear it’s different!
I won’t go quite as far this time and say that the Panthers are going to win the division, but I do think they’re a sneaky candidate to snag the NFC’s 7 seed. I’m all in on this offense being one of the stories of the 2025 season, and it starts on the ground.
Chew on this: the Carolina Panthers are the only team in the league to have 2 players on their roster who rushed for at least 1,000 yards last season. Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle aren’t superstars by any means, but both are quality starting backs whose games mesh really well together. Hubbard is great at running downhill, between the tackles, while Dowdle is a great change-of-pace back and a nice option in the passing game. Hubbard and Dowdle will also be running behind what I think is one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, a unit that is almost unrecognizable from the disaster it was in 2023.
Dave Canales and GM Dan Morgan deserve a lot of credit for building one of the best rushing attacks in the league. Last season, the Panthers ranked 11th in EPA per rush, 12th in rushing success rate and 10th in yards per rush. With the addition of Dowdle, I think they’ll be even better this season.
I’m also ready to believe what I saw with Bryce Young to close out last season. Young responded admirably to his midseason benching and finally started to play like the same guy we saw at Alabama. The mobility and accuracy that made Young so successful in college finally showed up in the NFL, and he played with a new level of confidence behind an improved supporting cast. Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold a few recent examples of early career “busts” turning their careers around, and I think Young is next in line. Adding Tetairoa McMillan, one of my favorite players in the entire draft, should only help his case.
I’m very confident in this being a good offense this season. It’s the defense that will make or break the Panthers’ playoff hopes. Carolina was dead last in defensive EPA per play last season, but did make a few nice additions this offseason.
Derrick Brown is back from injury and will be joined by free agent signings Tershawn Wharton and Bobby Brown. Wharton and Brown aren’t big names, but both are excellent complementary pieces to Derrick Brown, who has turned into a star defensive tackle. This will be a tough line to run on.
But if this Panthers defense is truly going to improve, they’ll need a healthy season out of Jaycee Horn and rookies Nick Scourton and Princely Umanmielen to contribute as pass rushers right out of the gate. Scourton in particular is a name to watch, as he was dominant in 2023 with Purdue before an up-and-down 2024 at Texas A&M in which he gained nearly 50 pounds and rarely rushed off the edge. Scourton is back down to his weight at Purdue and will be back in a more familiar role with Carolina this season.
Tampa Bay, rightfully so, is the favorite to win this division. But outside of the Bucs, I think the NFC South is wide open. The Panthers played some genuinely great football over the second half of last year, against some of the top teams in the league to boot. This is a talented, young team to keep an eye on.
Out: Green Bay Packers
This was an incredibly tough decision to make. I like this Packers team a lot, and am far more confident in them making the playoffs than missing them this upcoming season.
But in the spirit of this exercise, someone had to get cut, and betting against 3 teams from the NFC North making it again made the most sense. I gave some serious consideration to the Vikings and even the Lions for this spot, but ultimately went with Green Bay due to concerns over their defense.
On the surface, the Packers’ defense was excellent last season. Under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, the Packers finished 4th in defensive EPA and 6th in points allowed per game. However, a deeper dive shows this is a unit that’s prime for regression in 2025.
While the Packers were top 10 in both EPA and points allowed, they ranked 20th in QB pressure rate, 16th in negative plays generated and 19th in success rate. This defense relied heavily on turnovers to get their stops, taking the ball away 31 times last season, 3rd most in the league.
While that might sound a little nitpicky, I bring up those stats to make this point: I think this Packers defense is alright, not great. On a down-to-down basis, their opponents had a good amount of success moving the ball on them. They did not force as many punts as you’d expect for a top 10 defense. They just happened to force more turnovers than almost any other team.
And sure, it’s fair to give some credit to the Packers for their ability to force turnovers. Xavier McKinney is one of the best ball-hawking safeties in the league and can quickly flip any drive on its head with a timely interception. But history shows us that turnovers vary wildly from year to year, while defenses that win through QB pressure and negative plays are more stable.
I have much more faith in the offense. This is a well-coached, balanced unit that excels both on the ground and through the air. It’s just a matter of consistency.
The Packers have one of the youngest offenses in the league, and it shows from time to time. Receivers will drop passes, Jordan Love will throw a bad interception, and they can put themselves in a hole early with mistakes adding up. I do think another year of experience and the addition of Matthew Golden will help smooth things out, but I also think the margin of error will be smaller this year if the defense does regress.
Ultimately, I still think very highly of the Packers. I think they have one of the highest ceilings in the NFL should their offense take another step forward and their defense does not regress. But they also have a lower floor than many of the other playoff teams from 2024. I can see a world where the defense falls to the middle of the league and the offense continues to be streaky, resulting in a frustrating 9-win season in a tough division.
In: New England Patriots
Few, if any teams, had a busier offseason than the Patriots. While making the most moves in the offseason is not always the perfect recipe for success, I really like what the Pats have built, and I think their rebuild could take off as soon as this year.
I was really impressed with Drake Maye’s rookie season, and he should find himself in a substantially better offense this time around. Stefon Diggs is certainly not the player he once was, and is coming off an injury, but he and rookie Kyle Williams should still be a major improvement over last year’s receivers. TreVeyon Henderson offers some much-needed explosiveness out of the backfield and pairs well with Rhamondre Stevenson. Will Campbell was a great pick at 4th overall, and should help shore up what was a porous offensive line. I think with even marginal upgrades, Maye could be in line to take a huge step forward this season.
But what could really put the Patriots over the top is their defense. This is a unit that I think really underachieved relative to their talent last season, finishing 3rd to last in defensive EPA. The biggest culprit was a lack of pass rush, with New England pressuring their opponents’ QBs on only 28.7% of dropbacks, 4th lowest in the league.
To solve this, the Patriots signed Milton Williams in free agency, one of the best pass-rushing tackles in the NFL and drafted Bradyn Swinson, an edge out of LSU who I think could be a late-round gem. 2023 2nd round pick Keion White also flashed a lot last season, and could be a breakout candidate going into his 3rd season.
The new additions up front are supported by an elite back end. Christian Gonzalez has quickly taken the leap into being an All-Pro caliber corner, and is joined by free agent signing Carlton Davis, Jabrill Peppers, Kyle Duggar and Marcus Jones to make up one of the deepest secondaries in the NFL. I would be shocked if this defense finished as a bottom-tier unit again, there is simply too much talent at their disposal.
The Patriots check a lot of boxes for a quick turnaround. Good quarterback? Check. Good coach? Check. Good defense? Check. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the most improved team in the NFL this season.
Out: Pittsburgh Steelers
After years and years of feeling stuck in the same place, the Steelers are attacking the offseason unlike any other year under Mike Tomlin. They’re all in. And yet, I wonder if it’s enough.
As easy as it is to make “this is the most 9-8 team ever” jokes, that’s more or less where I think the Steelers will finish this season. While there are very few glaring weaknesses, there are also very few parts of this team that feel exceptional.
Aaron Rodgers should be an upgrade over last year’s duo of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, but to what extent? Rodgers is now 41 years old with significantly decreased mobility after his Achilles tear in 2023 and had an up-and-down 2024 season. DK Metcalf is a good top option out wide and I really like the Steelers’ tight end group, but it’s a very thin group of pass catchers outside of that. In 2024, the Steelers were 19th in EPA per dropback, and I think they’ll stick around that range again in 2025.
There is some potential for a nice run game with a young and growing offensive line and rookie Kaleb Johnson in an Arthur Smith scheme, but how will that mesh with Rodgers under center? Rodgers has been a vocal critic of presnap motion and the slow tempo of Matt Lafleur’s offense, which has a lot of similarities to Arthur Smith’s scheme. Will the two be able to find a compromise like Rodgers’ first few years with Lafleur, or will it be messy and disjointed like his final season in Green Bay?
Oddly enough, I’m actually just as concerned with the Steelers’ defense, even after the addition of Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey is still a great player, and I’m really curious to see specifically where he lines up for Pittsburgh this year, but I am a little worried about the Steelers’ other superstar defender, TJ Watt.
Watt, who recently turned 30, showed a few signs of decline last season. 11.5 sacks and 57 pressures is still obviously a great year, but both are the lowest he’s had in a healthy season since 2018. Watt also completely disappeared down the stretch, failing to record a single sack in any of the Steelers’ final four games.
For so many years, Watt would seemingly take over a game in the 4th quarter with a timely strip sack or batted pass, completely turning the tide in favor of Pittsburgh. Given his age, recent injuries and dip in production, I think it’s fair to question if he’ll have that same level of impact again. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Darius Slay are going to need to keep fighting off Father Time if this defense is going to be as good as it looks on paper.
I’ll admit, it doesn’t feel great to bet against a Mike Tomlin Steelers team. They always seem to find a way, right? But that alone should not be the reason to pick them to go to the playoffs. On paper, I think this is a fairly average roster in a very tough conference.
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