The San Francisco 49ers finished the 2024 season with a 6-11 record and missed the playoffs for the first time since the 2020 season. Unfortunately for the 49ers – their 2024 season – resembled their 2020 season in a lot of ways. They were coming off of a Super Bowl loss, they had countless injuries, and they couldn’t quite get over the hump. And one of the biggest problems with the 2024 49ers – was even when they were “healthy” – and I say this with air quotations around the word healthy – because they were truly never healthy – they couldn’t quite get out of their own way. And the first half of their season perfectly encapsulates what I mean by this. They beat the Jets by double digits on Monday night and looked good – and they looked like the 49ers – but then the following week – they lost in Minnesota, and then lost a very weird game to the Rams in week 3 before battling back to .500 in week 4 with a win over the Patriots. They then proceeded to the Cardinals at home by a single point to fall to 2-3 before eventually heading into their bye at 4-4. The injuries were piling up by this point and they proceeded to go after 2-7 after their bye and lost a lot of veterans this offseason. And in today’s video we’re going to discuss why the San Francisco 49ers are at such a pivotal point in their franchises timeline. We’re going to break down how we got here, what’s next, potential draft targets and a whole lot more. And there is a lot to breakdown in today’s video and without further ado – let’s begin
And we are starting today’s video by discussing some of the players the 49ers lost this offseason and we’ll start with Deebo Samuel. Deebo Samuel is a very interesting player and he’s a very unique player – but he’s not close to being the best in the NFL by any stretch of the imagination. And for as much production as Deebo can bring to an offense – his contract situation was always going to be complicated because of him running the football. And not just on designated end around’s or trick plays once a game either. Over the past 4 years Deebo has carried the ball 37 or more times in a season and I know that may not seem like a lot – but the touches add up and Deebo Deebo is not a normal 29 year old receiver due to that. He’s a player that has a lot more wear and tear on his body than other 29 year old recover and he only has one 1,000 yard receiving season to his name which was back in 2021. He had a good 2023 season as he had over 1,100 total yards and 12 touchdowns after you factor in the rushing numbers – but he’s not the player he was a couple of years ago. And Deebo’s contract was messy for the 49ers and per Over the cap – Deebo has a dead cap hit of over $30 million dollars in 2025. Meaning the 49ers are going to pay him over $30 million dollars to not play for them in 2025. Now you may have heard that the Commanders were taking on Deebo’s remaining contract – and they are – but the 49ers are taking on Deebo’s dead cap specifically for the 2025 season – so they are completely clear of Deebo’s contract in 2026. What this means is – Washington took on Deebo’s contract – but to make things less complicated – the dead money doesn’t just go away. And teams do this regularly to unload contracts and another example was the Bills taking on a $30 million dollar dead cap hit for Stefon Diggs in 2024. Unfortunately, the 49ers also have dead cap hits for Arik Armstead, Charvarius Ward, Leonard Floyd, and several other players – and they have the most dead cap money out of any NFL team in 2025 – at over $75 million dollars. This happens when you pay players and you go all in to try and win a Super Bowl – especially with a quarterback on a rookie contract the way Brock Purdy was over the past couple of years. And sure things can get a little messy from an accounting standpoint to try and get under the salary cap – but the reality is – if you win a Super Bowl during this time period of going all in – it doesn’t matter. Banners fly forever and if they have to spend a year eating dead cap money – everyone in the organization – including the owner writing the check – would be fine with that. But one of the issues with the 49ers in 2025 – that they are more or less using as part of a rebuild or re tool year – is – when they paid guys in the past – like the aforementioned Arik Armstead who is now with the Jags – and Charvarius Ward – who signed with the Colts this offseason – they had to push money down the road so they could get under the cap for that whatever specific season. So despite the 49ers releasing Arik Armstead in March of 2024 – per over the cap – he had dead cap hits of $10.3 million dollars in 2024 – and $15 million dollars in 2025 from the 49ers. And people like to say the NFL salary cap is a myth – and it is to a degree – but what has to be remembered – is – at some point – the bill always come due. And we bring that up because the 49ers are at a disadvantage relative to other NFL teams – because of how much dead cap money they have in 2025. This also isn’t a “don’t play good players” message because you have to pay for talent – but there were several bad contracts on the 49ers roster last year – and Deebo Samuel was a big one. So a lot of this offseason for the 49ers – was simply shedding bad contracts and re tooling their roster for 2025 and beyond.
Now the 49ers are in an interesting situation relative to the rest of their division. While I do think the Rams are in a good position in 2025 to seriously compete – and possibly go to the NFC championship game or even the Super Bowl – I don’t look at them from a long term perspective the way I do other teams across the league like the Lions, Eagles, or Bills or several other teams for reference. Now the Rams are obviously very good – but the one thing I really worry about with their future – is what are they going to do at the quarterback position in the post Matt Stafford era? Matt Stafford is 37 and I know they signed Jimmy G this offseason – but I don’t think Jimmy G is the long term answer for the Rams. Now if the Rams do find a long term solution at the quarterback position in what would be the post Matt Stafford era – then based on their drafts over the last two years – by bringing in guys like Puka Nacua, Kobie Turner, Byron Young, Jared Verse, and Braden Fiske – and plenty of others – then I would put them in the same basket as the other premier teams from a long term perspective. I like Mike Macdonald a lot as a defensive mind and I do think the Seahawks will eventually figure things out from a roster standpoint themselves – but I don’t think they are going to be a Super Bowl contender in 2025 and it honesty has nothing to do with Sam Darnold or Geno Smith. It has more to do with the interior offensive line and even the long term question marks at right tackle too. I think Seattle is a very interesting situation where they have a really solid team – and a team that will almost never get blown out – and a team that has a very high floor – usually in the 8 to 9 win range – but if you asked me when it came hell or high water if I would ever take this team to legitimately go to the Super Bowl – the answer in 2025 would be no. Even with that being said – the Seahawks do present a challenge for the 49ers because they’re not a push over and if you told me they would make the playoffs this year – I wouldn’t be surprised at all. And then you get to the Arizona Cardinals who can be a legit playoff contender one week – then completely lay an egg the following week. Kyler Murray is so up and down as a player that I also question the Cardinals ceiling even despite me thinking they are doing a lot of things right from a long term perspective.
I loved that they brought in Josh Sweat in free agency and could very easily address the interior defensive line in the first round of the draft to complete their defensive line – but until we see this team truly complete an NFL season and win a playoff game – and look good in the process – I’m always going to question the ceiling of the Arizona Cardinals. And to bring this back to the 49ers – they’re in a unique situation because they’re quietly in one of the best divisions in football. I think we would all be surprised if the Cardinals or Seahawks went to the Super Bowl this year – but even with that being said – both of those teams have very high floors and are not easy teams to beat. And this doesn’t apply to just the 49ers – but really every team in the NFC west for that matter too – but when you know every team in the division is going to be a very difficult team to beat – and you know each team has a high floor that could make the postseason in any given year – that adds pressure to each teams draft strategy and it adds to how much each draft pick matters. And I know we discussed how good the 49ers 2024 draft class was – but this only adds to how much them missing one really the entire 2023 draft class hurts them in the present day. This also doesn’t factor in how good the rest of the NFC is – and the fact that on the way to getting to back to a Super Bowl – you may not run into another NFC West team – but you may run into a Philly, Detroit, Washington, or Tampa Bay in the process. And not that any NFL game is easy – but playing in the NFC west in particular is brutal before the season even starts – because it’s not an exaggeration to say – any team can win that division year in and year out.
So to get better and to re claim the NFC West – what should the 49ers draft actually look like? And I didn’t mention this earlier in the video – though I do want to credit John Lynch and the scouting department – for a really good 2024 class and I wish the best for Ricky Pearsall considering the tragedy he overcame last year.
The video for the 49ers is below and why they are at a pivotal point in their franchises timeline is linked below! I hope you enjoyed!
