The short answer is no. The longer one, which I’ll try to explain here, is absolutely not. Losing will never be the answer. Some fans want their teams to lose even before they’re eliminated. If a team starts 2-4, 1-3, or something similar, you can already see “tank for someone” on social media. And this is something I won’t ever wrap my mind around.
If you look at it logically, it can make sense. The team won’t win the Super Bowl, so the better alternative is picking as early as possible in the Draft. But picking early in the Draft doesn’t guarantee you anything. Especially when we’re talking about “Tank for Trevor” or “Suck for Luck.” If you’re not picking at least in the top five, you can’t even be sure of who will be available. So why are some freaking out when their team wins a game and drops from pick 12 to pick 16? It’s not even that big of a drop.
Is It Worth Losing?
Also, if a team was good enough to be hoping for a playoff spot until Week 15 or 16, losing 3 games won’t magically give them a top 5 pick. Heck, it may not even change their draft slot at all. And if a team was basically eliminated in Week 5 (no disrespect, but like the Browns and Raiders this year), they are just bad. You can be a bad football team and not one actually trying to lose games. Maybe it’s some psychological thing. Wanting to believe that a team is trying to lose rather than not able to win.
And all this is before talking about the most important part of it all. It’s easy to do so, but more often than not, we forget that we’re talking about people’s jobs. Players, coaches, and front office staff aren’t guaranteed to keep their jobs even if they win, much less if they lose. Rooting for your favorite team to lose is asking them to lose their jobs, while whoever steps in is in a better position.
While the scouts work year-round, coaches and general managers usually get more involved in the process after the season. That’s one of the reasons why mocks and draft boards change so much in March. But that’s also when teams learn more about the player, vis-à-vis being a scheme fit, personality, and everything we as fans don’t care about as much.
Dec 24, 2022; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Houston Texans safety Jalen Pitre (5) celebrates after intercepting a Hail Mary attempt to end the game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images
The best example I have for my case is the 2022 Houston Texans. They had a 1-12-1 record and looked certain to finish with the first pick in the 2023 Draft. They beat the Titans in Week 16 and, going into the final game of the season, could lose the first pick in the upcoming Draft. Needing a quarterback and with two very good prospects, losing the first pick could mean losing the player they liked most.
They finished the season beating the Colts 32-31 with a 28-yard touchdown in a 4&20 with 50 seconds in the game. The Texans lost the first pick to the Chicago Bears, who then traded it to the Carolina Panthers. Maybe the Texans would’ve selected C.J. Stroud if they had the first pick. Or they may have picked Bryce Young. The point is that, as of December, we don’t know who will declare for the Draft, who will be available when our favorite team is on the clock, and who will be a good player in the NFL.
Losing games creates a losing environment. And it doesn’t matter how good a prospect someone is; it’s hard to stop losing. There’s a reason why the best teams always make it look like they drafted the best players. And they didn’t do it by losing games on purpose.
