The room at NFL Honors in San Francisco went still. Matthew Stafford stood backstage, flanked by his four daughters in matching black-and-white dresses, waiting to hear his name called for an award he’d never won in 17 NFL seasons.
The envelope was opened — but the story of who won was never really the story at all. The real drama was hiding inside the ballot count, where two anonymous voters had quietly thrown the entire race into chaos.
Stakes in Motion
Feb 5, 2026; San Francisco, CA, USA; Steve Cundari and Charissa Thompson and Kelly Stafford, the wife of Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, poses with daughters Sawyer Stafford, Chandler Stafford, Hunter Stafford and Tyler Stafford on the NFL Honors Red Carpet before Super Bowl LX at Palace of Fine Arts. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
This wasn’t just any MVP season. Stafford, 37, had led the league with 4,707 passing yards and a career-high 46 touchdowns while throwing just eight interceptions, piloting the Rams’ No. 1 scoring offense at 30.5 points per game to a 12-5 record and the NFC’s fifth seed.
Drake Maye, New England’s young star, was completing a breakout campaign that had the Patriots in the Super Bowl — quite literally, as they were set to face the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 60 just three days later.
Over the final two months of the regular season, Stafford and Maye had flip-flopped atop the MVP odds multiple times, making this the most volatile two-man race in recent memory.
Pattern or Pressure
Bills quarterback Josh Allen answers a range of questions during a press conference at the Bills field house in Orchard Park on Jan. 29, 2026. He had minor surgery on his foot recently.-Imagn Images
For weeks, the same question lingered: could Stafford — who hadn’t earned even a first-team All-Pro selection until this season — really claim the league’s highest individual honor at age 37? Meanwhile, in Buffalo, the reigning MVP Josh Allen was watching his bid to repeat evaporate.
Despite head coach Sean McDermott’s passionate December lobbying — “I can’t, in my mind, imagine anybody else has done more for their team on a more consistent basis than Josh Allen. Who out there is playing better?” — Allen had fallen out of serious contention by the final month of the season.
McDermott’s plea carried an extra layer of irony: within weeks, he’d be fired as Buffalo’s head coach after nine seasons, despite a 98-50 regular-season record.
The Kingmaker Who Wasn’t Even Running
Jan 25, 2026; Seattle, WA, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) walks on field before the 2026 NFC Championship Game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
Here’s what fans didn’t see coming. When the 50 Associated Press voters submitted their ballots, 24 gave Stafford the top spot, and 23 chose Maye. That accounts for 47 of 50 first-place votes. The other three? Two went to Josh Allen — a quarterback who hadn’t been in the MVP conversation for a month — and one went to Justin Herbert.
Those three “rogue” votes didn’t just represent quirky dissent. They functioned as an accidental kingmaker mechanism.
Had just one of Allen’s two voters placed Maye first instead, the Patriots quarterback would have overtaken Stafford. A player with zero realistic chance of winning the award came within one ballot of deciding who did.
How It Changed the Outcome
Jan 25, 2026; Seattle, WA, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) passes against the Seattle Seahawks during the first half in the 2026 NFC Championship Game at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images
The math is straightforward but devastating. Under the AP’s system, a first-place vote is worth 10 points, a second-place vote earns 5 points, a third-place vote earns 3 points, a fourth-place vote earns 2 points, and a fifth-place vote earns 1 point. Stafford finished with 366 points to Maye’s 361 — a gap of just 5 points.
One voter switching a single first-place vote from Allen to Maye would swing at least 10 points in Maye’s direction, more than enough to erase the deficit.
The Herbert vote was equally consequential: as CBS Sports analyst Sam Monson revealed, he was the Justin Herbert voter, and had he chosen Maye instead, that alone would have at least tied the race.
Numbers That Matter
Jan 18, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears cornerback Kyler Gordon (6) sacks Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) during the second quarter of an NFC Divisional Round game at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images
Stafford led the ballot with 24 first-place votes and 366 total points, while Maye trailed narrowly with 23 first-place votes and 361 points.
Behind them, Allen’s 2 first-place votes translated to 91 total points for third place, followed by Christian McCaffrey with 71 points and Trevor Lawrence with 49 — neither of whom received a single first-place vote.
The 5-point gap between Stafford and Maye is the closest MVP finish since 2003, when Peyton Manning and Steve McNair actually tied at 16 first-place votes apiece and were named co-MVPs. Before that, the 1997 race between Brett Favre and Barry Sanders also ended in a tie. Stafford’s win is the tightest non-tie finish in the modern era of the award.
Ripple Effect
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen steps back before throwing his pass during second half action at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on Jan. 17, 2026.-Imagn Images
Allen’s two surprise first-place votes reverberated well beyond the award itself. They reignited debate over whether “protest votes” or “conscience votes” can distort outcomes in small electorates of just 50 people.
Patriots fans pointed out that Allen — a division rival — may have inadvertently cost Maye the trophy, an especially bitter pill given that Maye was about to start in the Super Bowl.
Allen himself had used his platform during the season to campaign for teammate James Cook to win awards, telling reporters, “He’s the best back in football… he should be in the running for every award”. The irony: Allen couldn’t get Cook more recognition, but his own leftover MVP votes nearly reshaped the entire race.
History Repeated, Then Reversed
Jan 25, 2026; Seattle, WA, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) leaves the field after the 2026 NFC Championship Game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
This wasn’t even the first time the MVP voters defied their own All-Pro picks. In 2024, Lamar Jackson earned first-team All-Pro with 30 of 50 first-place votes on the All-Pro ballot — yet Allen won MVP.
The same 50-person media panel votes for both awards, making that split historically rare. Now in 2025, Stafford earned his first-ever first-team All-Pro selection and the MVP, restoring the traditional alignment.
But the pattern revealed something deeper: this voting body is capable of dramatic internal contradictions from year to year, and the small sample of 50 voters means a handful of ballots can bend history.
Tension Going Forward
Jan 18, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws a pass during warmups before an NFC Divisional Round game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images
Stafford closed his acceptance speech with a bombshell of his own: “I’ll see you guys next year… Hopefully, I’m not at this event, and we’re getting ready for another game at SoFi” — confirming he’ll return for an 18th season rather than retire.
At 37, he became the oldest player to win his first MVP, and the third-oldest winner ever behind Tom Brady (2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2021). Can the Rams, who fell to Seattle in the NFC Championship Game, build on this, or will the window close as Stafford approaches 40?
Meanwhile, Maye heads into a Patriots offseason with a Super Bowl appearance and 23 first-place MVP votes on his résumé — at just 23 years old. The race between them may only be beginning.
The Question That Won’t Go Away
Jan 25, 2026; Seattle, WA, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) walks on field before the 2026 NFC Championship Game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
Two anonymous voters looked at the 2025 NFL season — at Stafford’s cannon arm, at Maye’s generational debut, at an entire league of candidates — and wrote down Josh Allen’s name. We still don’t know who they are. We don’t know if they voted Allen second on other ballots or if this was a pure conviction pick.
What we know is this: in an electorate of 50, two votes worth of loyalty to a quarterback who wasn’t even in the conversation came within a single ballot of handing the trophy to someone else entirely. The next time someone says individual votes don’t matter, point them to February 2026 in San Francisco.
If you enjoyed this article please like and follow us here on MSN! Thank you for reading and have a great day!
Sources:
AP NFL MVP voting results, Feb 2026
ESPN MVP closest-vote-since-2003 coverage
CBS Sports “Three voters turned MVP race upside down” analysis
NFL.com Stafford MVP announcement
AP News 2026 NFL Honors live updates
Bills Wire Allen MVP voting breakdown
Heavy.com Allen surprise voting report
USA Today closest MVP races history
