Stafford’s $55M Deal And Garrett Trade Make Rams No. 1 Of The Top 10 Super Bowl Favorites

The phone calls started in May. By June, the Los Angeles Rams had rewritten their entire future in two strokes of a pen, and the rest of the NFL is still picking up the pieces. A $55 million extension for their reigning MVP quarterback. A blockbuster trade for the most dominant defensive player in football. The odds shifted within hours, and every other contender felt the ground move beneath them. Here are the top 10 Super Bowl favorites, counting down from the longest shots to the team that broke the market.

10. Los Angeles Chargers: The Quiet Climber

Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers sit at +1700 on DraftKings, yet the analytics like them more than the betting board does. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Bolts a 4.4% chance to win it all, the ninth-best mark in the NFL, and ranks them seventh overall. ESPN even pegs a Chargers-Rams clash at SoFi Stadium as one of the more likely championship matchups, a 2.2% possibility. In a city now defined by the Rams, the Chargers are the contender hiding in plain sight.

9. New England Patriots: The Runners-Up Still Searching

The Patriots reached the Super Bowl last season only to be dismantled by Seattle, and the climb back looks steep. New England sits at +1600 and ranks 14th in ESPN’s Football Power Index, the first team in the metric’s history to make a Super Bowl and fall that far the following offseason. FPI gives them just a 2.7% chance to win it all. Drake Maye flashed franchise-quarterback promise, but the roster around him still needs reinforcements before the Patriots can run it back.

8. Kansas City Chiefs: The Dynasty on the Slide

The Chiefs land at +1500, still dangerous but no longer the team everyone fears most. Kansas City enters 2026 ranked ninth in the FPI, its worst preseason ranking since 2018, the year Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback. The roster shed talent this offseason, including cornerback Trent McDuffie, who now anchors the Rams’ secondary. The dynasty refuses to disappear, but the rest of the league has finally closed the gap.

7. Baltimore Ravens: Talent Without the Trigger

The Ravens sit at +1000, perennially loaded and perennially just short of the leap. ESPN’s FPI ranks Baltimore third overall at 9.4%, yet the front office stayed patient while the Rams went all-in. The kind of roster that should terrify the league chose to stand still. In a year defined by one team’s willingness to mortgage its future, patience started to look like falling behind.

6. Buffalo Bills: Second Best Isn’t Close

The Bills also land at +1000, mirror images of the Ravens in price and posture. But the analytics give Buffalo the edge for the runner-up spot, with ESPN’s Football Power Index handing them a 10.7% chance to win the title, the second-best mark in football. That is good enough for a strong season and a deep January run. It is still more than four percentage points behind the team at the top.

5. Seattle Seahawks: Champions Sitting at +1100

Here is the first real jolt. The team that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in February is not even in the top four. The defending champion Seahawks sit at +1100, longer odds than two teams that did not reach the Super Bowl last year, and FPI gives them just a 7.0% title chance. Seattle’s roster still won it all months ago, yet the Rams erased that lead and lapped the entire conference. For a franchise that opened as the favorite to repeat, this drift is the clearest sign of how dramatically the offseason reshaped the picture.

4. The Move That Stabilized Everything

Before the headline-grabbing trade came the quieter, foundational stroke. Matthew Stafford’s extension keeps the reigning MVP tied to Los Angeles through the 2027 season with $105 million remaining on his contract, including incentives that could push the deal to $60 million. Of the $55 million in new money, $50 million is fully guaranteed at signing. Stafford, entering his 17th NFL season at age 38, says he feels “good physically.” The Rams removed the single biggest uncertainty hanging over a franchise built to win now, and that was only the first move.

3. The Trade That Weaponized the Defense

Then came the blockbuster. Los Angeles acquired Myles Garrett, the reigning AP Defensive Player of the Year and the most dominant defensive player in football, surrendering Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 second-round pick, and a 2029 third-round pick to do it. Four assets for one man, gutting three consecutive draft classes. Cornerback Trent McDuffie was already in the building, so Garrett did not arrive to fix a broken defense. He arrived to make a strong one terrifying.

2. The SportsLine Model’s Even Bolder Call

Even the betting market may be underrating Los Angeles. The SportsLine Projection Model, running 10,000 simulations, gives the Rams a 16.5% championship win rate, higher than even their implied betting odds suggest. The model sees something the market is still catching up to: this roster construction is unusually complete. Stafford’s extension stabilized the offense in May. Garrett weaponized the defense in June. These weren’t panicked splashes but phased, deliberate acquisitions, and the projections reward that precision.

1. Los Angeles Rams: A Different Zip Code

This is the surprise that swallowed the offseason. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Rams a 14.9% chance to win the title, more than 4 percentage points clear of the next-best team. They sit at +600, the only team in the NFL with odds under +1000, while the Ravens and Bills trail at +1000 and the defending champion Seahawks linger at +1100. Bet $10 on the Rams and you win $60. The gap between first and second place is larger than the gap between second and fifth. Whether this conviction produces a Lombardi Trophy or becomes the most expensive cautionary tale in recent NFL history, every front office in the league is watching to find out.