After a dramatic and unpredictable Week 11, the NFL playoff picture is finally coming into focus. In the AFC West, a changing of the guard is underway. The Denver Broncos earned a pivotal win over the Kansas City Chiefs, shifting divisional momentum. Meanwhile, in the NFC West, the Rams asserted dominance with a key win over the Seattle Seahawks. This signaled a power shift in that division as well. In the NFC South, the Carolina Panthers clawed back into the divisional race against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Although many of the conversations in the AFC East have centered on the Patriots’ resurgence, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen reinforced his elite status with six touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Each NFL team had a defining stat in Week 11. That critical stat can be used to predict each team’s future in 2025.
Arizona Cardinals = 3 Turnovers
The Arizona Cardinals quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, had a big week in Week 11 when he completed 47 out of 57 passes. However, the critical stat for the Cardinals was their failure to protect the ball three times, which led to Arizona losing to the 49ers. Those turnovers included two interceptions thrown by Brissett and a fumble by the Cardinals on the goal line. This game is a microcosm of the Cardinals’ season; they are good enough to be a dangerous team, but they are limited by their self-inflicted wounds.
Atlanta Falcons = 448 Passing Yards Allowed
The Atlanta Falcons entered Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season with the top-rated pass defense in the NFL. While that elite defensive play has not always led to wins each week it has allowed the Falcons to show that they could be good enough on defense to be a contender. However, this week the Falcons pass defense reputation took a big hit when they allowed Panthers quarterback Byrce Young to pass for 448 passing yards in a game where the Falcons lost 30-27 to the Panthers in overtime.
Baltimore Ravens = 21 Fourth Quarter Points
The Baltimore Ravens came into Week 11 looking to build on their recent success as they work to close the gap with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North. Then the Ravens traveled to Cleveland to face a Browns team that had nothing to lose. Cleveland jumped on the Ravens early and continued to hold the Ravens down into the 4th quarter. However, in the 4th quarter, the Ravens delivered a clutch performance, scoring 21 points.
Buffalo Bills = 6 Touchdown Explosion
Doubt surrounded Josh Allen’s championship potential, but in Week 11, he silenced critics by leading the Buffalo Bills to a shootout win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The weight of the Bills’ hopes rested squarely on Allen’s shoulders, and he delivered with three rushing and three passing touchdowns. While the Bills were not perfect in their win, Buffalo proved that as long as Allen is at quarterback, they always have a chance to win.
Carolina Panthers = 448 Passing Yards
After what feels like an eternity, the Carolina Panthers are poised to challenge Tampa Bay in the NFC South. A playoff run now seems possible. On the road against their division rival, the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina delivered one of their best performances of 2025. In overtime, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young found Tommy Tremble for a decisive 56-yard completion to set up the game-winning field goal. The play capped Young’s best game yet, with 448 passing yards and a new single-game franchise record.
Chicago Bears = Zero Turnovers Committed
Sometimes, the best teams in the NFL are defined more by the plays they do not make rather than simply the ones that they do make. The Chicago Bears’ performance against the Minnesota Vikings stood out not because they played outstanding football, but because they did not make key mistakes. Chicago picked up a huge division win by not turning the ball over on offense and forcing the Vikings into two turnovers. That +2 turnover differential was enough for the Bears to secure a two-point win over the Vikings.
Cincinnati Bengals = Two Defensive TD Allowed
For the first time in several seasons, the Cincinnati Bengals had a chance to sweep the Pittsburgh Steelers during their regular-season series. Along with that achievement, the Bengals had a chance to cling to their slim playoff hopes, but Cincinnati came up short in its big moment. The beginning of the end for the Bengals came when Joe Flacco threw an interception, and the Steelers returned for a touchdown. Then, in the 4th quarter, the Steelers scored another defensive touchdown after recovering a fumble and returning it for a touchdown to put away the Bengals.
Cleveland Browns = 187 Total Net Yards
Heading into Week 11, the Cleveland Browns were viewed as a significant underdog against the rising Baltimore Ravens. However, for three quarters, the Browns did enough on defense and special teams to have a lead over the Ravens. Ultimately, the Ravens stepped up in the 4th quarter to come back against the Browns, and Cleveland could not respond. Offensively, the Browns only produced 187 yards of total offense against the Ravens, and the Browns’ inability to put the Ravens away ended up being another nail in the coffin for a dismal Browns season in 2025.
Dallas Cowboys =40.3% Defense Success Rate
Coming into Week 11, the Dallas Cowboys struggled to find their footing on the defensive side of the ball. Specifically, the Cowboys’ run defense was the worst in the NFL. So, for the Cowboys to hold the Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty to 7 rushing yards, and an overall success rate of 40.3% against the Raiders running game. That improved run defense was enough of an edge for the Cowboys to pick another win on Monday Night Football.
Denver Broncos = 5 for 5 on Field Goals
The Denver Broncos are on an eight-game win streak after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. Although this streak has propelled them to the top of the AFC West, their play has not always been dominant. Against the Chiefs, Denver struggled to reach the end zone, often settling for field goals. However, kicker Wil Lutz converted all five of his attempts, providing enough points for the win.
Detroit Lions = 0% on 4th Down Attempts
During the 2025 season, the Detroit Lions have struggled to consistently play like a championship team. This week, they faced the Philadelphia Eagles in a game that could be a preview for the NFC Championship game. Both teams are built on a foundation of toughness and a strong running game, balanced with an efficient passing game. On the other hand, the Lions seem to always come up short in big moments, and against the Eagles, they came up short five times. During the game, the Lions attempted to extend their drives by picking up 4th-and-short, but they missed all five attempts, ending each drive without scoring.
Green Bay Packers = 100% Red Zone Efficiency
The Green Bay Packers found themselves in a dogfight against the New York Giants during Week 11. On the other hand, the Packers never looked back, waiting for the Giants to make a play to upset them. In contrast, the Packers took every opportunity to keep putting touchdowns on the scoreboard. Green Bay set a high standard for red zone efficiency against the Giants by scoring 4 touchdowns during 4 trips to the red zone.
Houston Texans = Zero Turnovers Committed
The Houston Texans have had a difficult season, with injuries to many of their top offensive playmakers. On the other hand, the Texans have played outstanding defense. For NFL teams to win, a great defensive effort requires the offense to do its part. This week, Houston’s offense did its part by not turning the ball over against the Tennessee Titans. While the Texans struggled to a 3-point win against arguably the worst team in the NFL, they did just enough to win, and more importantly, they did not make a negative play that would have handed the game to Tennessee.
Indianapolis Colts = 7 Turnovers Committed
The Indianapolis Colts have surprised the NFL by going 8-2 in the first half of the 2025 season, propelled by outstanding play from quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor. However, during the Colts’ bye week, concerns arose about the team’s ability to maintain its success. The most significant issue is the seven turnovers committed over the last two games. If Indianapolis cannot address these ball-security issues, the Colts’ promising playoff hopes could be in jeopardy.
Jacksonville Jaguars = 192 Rushing Yards
So far in 2025, the Jacksonville Jaguars have returned as an AFC South contender for the season’s second half. However, they have sometimes failed to meet expectations, which took another hit when first-round draft pick Travis Hunter’s rookie season was cut short by knee surgery. Despite this, the Jaguars showed against the Los Angeles Chargers that they can still win big games. Jacksonville’s running game responded, carrying the load with 192 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns by Travis Etienne, Bhayshul Tuten, and Trevor Lawrence.
Kansas City Chiefs = 33% Red Zone Efficiency
The Kansas City Chiefs appear to be having their dynasty crumble in the 2025 NFL season. Cracks leading to their downfall have been subtle but are now visible as other teams overtake them. This week, the Chiefs struggled in the red zone, converting just one of three trips and settling for field goals or nothing on the others. Those missed chances gave the Denver Broncos the edge for a 3-point win, dropping Kansas City to 5-5.
Las Vegas Raiders = -5 Turnover Differential
The success of the NFL is based on everything the league does to ensure parity, allowing teams and their fan bases to hope for a championship season each year. So, with several measures in place to level the playing field among NFL teams, it can be hard to understand why a team like the Las Vegas Raiders has struggled for so long. However, the consistent failure of an NFL team to turn things around is usually due to deeper cultural issues. For the 2025 Raiders, those issues have manifested as turnovers; this season, the Raiders have a turnover differential of -5.
Los Angeles Chargers = 135 Total Net Yards
The Los Angeles Chargers are one of many NFL teams that have been hit hard by injuries this season. Most of the injuries that the Chargers have sustained have been to their offensive line and running back positions. That leaves the Chargers with enough firepower to still be a playoff contender, but then they have a disappointing performance like they did on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. Los Angeles made a cross-country trip to Jacksonville but forgot their offense, gaining only 135 total yards, including 42 rushing and 93 passing.
Los Angeles Rams = 4 Passes Intercepted
This week’s matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams could be a playoff preview in a few weeks. Seattle and Los Angeles both came in with impressive records and balanced offensive attacks, backed by solid defensive play. This game was expected to be a dogfight, and the Rams struggled to find their offensive stride. Fortunately, for the Rams, the defense stepped up and made more than their share of plays down the stretch. The Rams’ defense intercepted four of Sam Darnold’s passes.
Miami Dolphins = 2 Big Defensive Stops
It is official, the Miami Dolphins are starting to look like an above-average team once again. When the Dolphins faced the Washington Commanders in Spain, they had a chance to pick up a big win in front of an international audience. Ultimately, the Dolphins found a way to pick up a hard-fought win, but it took two big defensive plays to secure it against Washington. In the 4th quarter, the Dolphins got a huge momentum boost when they stopped the Commanders on a 4th-and-1 play. And then they started the overtime period with an interception, which led to the Dolphins winning the game with a field goal.
Minnesota Vikings = 2 Turnovers Committed
The Minnesota Vikings are falling behind the NFC North division leaders. That gap widened as the Vikings failed to defeat the Chicago Bears. Minnesota played a solid game but faltered in the final four minutes of the first half, when quarterback J.J. McCarthy threw two interceptions. These turnovers allowed the Bears to score 10 unanswered points and gave Chicago the momentum heading into halftime, making it too much for Minnesota to overcome.
New England Patriots = 3 Rushing Touchdowns
In less than a season, the Patriots have adopted new head coach Mike Vrabel’s persona. When Vrabel led the Titans, they established a dominant run game, then used play-action and elite receivers to create easy, efficient throws for the quarterback. The 2025 Patriots show the same tendencies, anchored by rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson. In Week 11, Henderson ran 19 times for 62 yards and two touchdowns, and caught five passes, one for a score.
New Orleans Saints = -3 Turnover Differential
The New Orleans Saints have shown flashes of being an average NFL team this season. One of those big moments came when the Saints upset the Carolina Panthers before their bye week. Unfortunately, the biggest problem the Saints face in improving as a team is taking an honest look inside. Good NFL teams cannot afford a negative turnover differential, and when they do, they usually struggle in several other areas, including offensive efficiency and defensive stoppage.
New York Giants – 60% Red Zone Efficiency
The New York Giants received a boost on the offensive side of the ball this week with Jameis Winston making his first start for New York. During his career, Winston has not necessarily played at an elite level, but he does tend to find a way to score points. On the other hand, Winston also tends to be reckless with the ball, which leads to turnovers. Winston showed both sides of his personality against the Green Bay Packers this week, but the Giants’ downfall was their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone. They scored some touchdowns, but only on 60% of their trips to the red zone, and that wasn’t enough to knock off the Packers.
New York Jets = 36% 3rd Down Conversion Rate
During the second half of 2025, the New York Jets are building an identity around a strong running game. For New York to win as a run-heavy team, it must stay ahead of the chains and pick up first downs on 3rd-and-short and 3rd-and-medium. Against the New England Patriots, the Jets failed to convert 64% of their 3rd down attempts. If the Jets add an explosive passing game, they can overcome that inefficiency. With just the run game trying to control the flow, they cannot.
Philadelphia Eagles = 5 Turnovers on Downs
The Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive and defensive schemes are a proven recipe for championship success. So much so that most NFL teams attempting to build themselves into contenders have followed the same formula. What is that formula? A strong running game, an efficient passing game, and a defense that can rush the passer and force turnovers. When the Eagles faced the Lions, it was like looking into a mirror, but where the Eagles separated themselves was on 4th down. The Lions attempted to pick up key first downs on 4th-and-short plays five times, and each time the Eagles stopped them. Those five stops, along with an interception, allowed the Eagles’ defense to shut down the Lions’ offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers = Two Defensive TD Scored
Over the last several seasons, the Pittsburgh Steelers have consistently found ways to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals. In Week 11, the Steelers continued to find new ways to defeat Cincinnati. The Steelers struggled to get their offense going against the Bengals’ defense, and they had a fierce struggle with the Bengals’ offense. But as the Bengals worked to make the clutch plays needed to pick up a second win of the season against the Steelers, the Pittsburgh defense stepped up. The first big play by the Steelers’ defense came when they intercepted a Joe Flacco pass and returned it 76 yards for a defensive touchdown. Then, in the 4th quarter, when the Bengals started to build momentum again, the Steelers returned a fumble for a second defensive touchdown.
San Francisco 49ers = Four High-Impact Plays
Despite dealing with a large number of injuries to some of their top playmakers this season, the San Francisco 49ers keep doing just enough to stay near the top of the NFC West standings. This week, the 49ers picked up a crucial win against the Arizona Cardinals, and a big part of the 49ers’ winning effort was due to four high-impact plays made by the San Francisco 49ers on special teams and defense. One of those high-impact plays was a 98-yard kick return by Skyy Moore that ended up getting stopped on the Cardinals’ 1-yard line. That explosive return set up an easy touchdown for the 49ers’ offense. In addition to special teams, the San Francisco 49ers’ defense forced three turnovers against the Cardinals. That included two interceptions against Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett and the recovery of an Arizona fumble.
Seattle Seahawks = 4 Interceptions Thrown
For the second straight season, but with two different teams, Sam Darnold’s ability to lead his offense has been the talk of the NFL. Yet, once again, he proves unable to sustain success under pressure. This week, the Seahawks were fighting the Rams for first place in the NFC West. It was also the week Darnold suffered his first meltdown of 2025, throwing four interceptions in a close loss to the Rams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 7.9 Yards Allowed
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers came into Buffalo in Week 11 ready to prove that they can beat some of the top teams in the NFL. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield came out leading his offense to an outstanding performance that allowed them to push the Buffalo Bills to the brink. Offensively, the Buccaneers’ running game made the Bills’ defense look silly. However, the Buccaneers’ defense could not follow their offense’s lead and was instead ground down by a Bills offense led by Josh Allen and James Cook. During the game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed the Bills to average 7.9 yards per offensive play, which is why the Bills continued to score against them in this matchup between NFC and AFC contenders.
Tennessee Titans = 9 Penalties for 62 Yards
The Tennessee Titans found themselves in a rare situation during Week 11 when they gave themselves a chance to upset the Houston Texans. Tennessee caught a break when the Texans’ offense struggled to establish a rhythm against the Titans. Unfortunately, the Titans were unable to fully capitalize on the Texans’ offensive struggles, as they committed 9 penalties for 62 yards. Five of those penalties were false starts, which hampered the Titans’ ability to get their offense going against a strong Texans defense.
Washington Commanders = 4 Missed Plays
The Washington Commanders had several chances in Week 11 to overcome injuries and setbacks and secure a crucial win against the Miami Dolphins. Despite these chances to seize the lead, the Commanders repeatedly undermined themselves. In the 4th quarter, they failed to gain a single yard on a 4th-and-1 at the Dolphins’ goal line, missing an opportunity to reclaim the lead. The Commanders’ defense then forced a stop, but the team muffed the ensuing punt, reviving the Dolphins’ momentum. In the last 15 seconds, the Commanders could have taken a 3-point lead, but kicker Matt Gay missed a 56-yard field goal. The game went to overtime, where on their first play, Marcus Mariota threw an interception, allowing the Dolphins to set up a game-winning field goal.
