We’re in the heart of Best Ball season, and now is the perfect time to hit on the correct QBs to give your team the highest chance of success.
In this article, I’ll break down my favorite QB targets at their current ADPs — as well as a few quarterbacks I’m avoiding based on where they’re being drafted.
Target- Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts is my favorite elite quarterback target in Best Ball drafts right now. Over the last three seasons, Hurts ranks QB2 in fantasy points per game (22.3) — trailing only Josh Allen (23.4) and beating out Lamar Jackson (22.2). Hurts has already flashed true QB1 upside, finishing as the QB1 in FPG (25.2) back in 2022. The best part about Hurts is you can usually grab him a round (or more) after Allen and Jackson on Underdog, where his current ADP sits at QB4 (44.6).
Hurts provides the elite rushing upside that we look for in the top-tier fantasy QBs – leading all QBs in rushing TDs (42), rushing attempts, and 3rd in rushing yards since 2022. With the Tush Push staying alive, I don’t see why Hurts wouldn’t continue his dominance on the ground.
I’m also expecting to see some positive regression in the Eagles’ passing volume. In the games where Jalen Hurts played over 75% of snaps last regular season, the Eagles ranked 31st in pass attempts, with Hurts averaging a career low (25.5) passing attempts per game as a full-time starter.
Hurts checks all the boxes again for an elite fantasy season – and with the cheapest ADP among the four projected elite QBs, I’ve got no problem paying up for him in drafts.
Avoid – Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield is coming off the best season of his career, with career best numbers in almost every statistical category. He finished as the QB4 FPG (21.5) and QB4 overall. However, Mayfield’s current ADP of QB7 (93.7) is too high for my liking.
Mayfield is a massive candidate for regression across multiple stats, more importantly, his TD rate, rushing yards, and rushing TDs (all career highs last season). Mayfield’s TD rate (passing TDs/passing attempts) ranked 2nd last year at 7.2% (league average typically around 4.2-4.3%). The seven QBs to reach over a 7% TD rate since 2016-2017 averaged around a 2.3% drop in TD rate the following season. As I mentioned, Mayfield will likely see another dip from his career high of 378 rushing yards and a tied career high in 3 rushing TDs last year.
Mayfield could also be without his All-Pro left tackle Tristian Wirfs, who underwent knee surgery earlier this month, likely sidelining him for the first couple of weeks of the season. It was also reported that WR Chris Godwin had second-ankle surgery on the same ankle he dislocated last year.
While I expect Mayfield to have another solid season, his QB7 price tag feels too rich given the clear signs of regression, injury concerns to key offensive pieces in the preseason, and a new offensive coordinator. I’d much rather bet on guys going a couple spots behind him.
Target – Brock Purdy
Over the last two seasons, Brock Purdy ranks as the QB9 in FPG (18.1) and QB7 overall. For drafters who miss or prefer to draft a QB later, Purdy remains a top value pick outside the elite tier of QBs.
Heading into 2025, Purdy is now locked into a five-year, $265 million extension – a clear sign the 49ers have faith in him as their long-term QB. And the advanced numbers back that deal up. In 2024, Purdy ranked 6th in the ANYA/A (7.34), tied for 8th in CPOE at 4.1%, and tied for 11th in Fantasy Points per Dropback (0.53), per Fantasy Points Data among 36 qualifying quarterbacks.
The 49ers are also entering this season with one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, setting up for another efficient season with multiple spike week opportunities. Purdy flashed a potential rushing floor moving forward as he ran for a career-high 323 yards and five TDs on an efficient 4.9 YPC. While some regression is expected, Purdy demonstrated a potential rushing upside that very few “pocket QBs” bring to fantasy football.
Purdy provides a stable weekly floor as the QB11 off the board on Underdog, while also offering legitimate top-five upside weekly. With a healthy Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, a highly efficient Jauan Jennings, and the potential emergence of last year’s first-round WR Ricky Pearsall. I see myself taking a lot of Purdy if missing on the elite tier of QBs early.
Avoid – Kyler Murray
I want to say I’m not completely out on Kyler Murray, and I think his current QB8 (95.6) ADP on Underdog is okay. My concern is that Murray, over the last two years, has averaged 17.8 FPG. That would be good enough for QB11 during that stretch, putting him behind guys like Bo Nix, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Brock Purdy during that time. (To be fair, all of those guys are separated by less than one point during that stretch.) However, all four of those guys are either going a couple of picks or a few rounds later than Murray.
To Murray’s credit, he does have the best QB finish out of those five QBs. Averaging 23.7 FPG in 2020. However, that elite production came heavily from his career high of 819 rushing yards on 133 carries for 11 TDs. Since then, Murray hasn’t eclipsed 572 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs (has only played one full season since).
I’m fine drafting Murray around his QB8 (95.6) cost if you take one of Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison Jr in the earlier rounds. However, it feels like I’m taking Murray too close to his floor at his cost. If you wanted to chase the other rushing upside QBs, I’d much rather take my chance on guys like Bo Nix, Justin Fields, or Drake Maye, who are all slightly cheaper options.
Target – Drake Maye
There’s no denying how terrible Drake Maye’s situation was last season. The Patriots had arguably the worst offensive line in football, leading the league in percentage of dropbacks under pressure at 40.4%, per Fantasy Points. On top of that, Maye was working with one of the league’s weakest receiving corps, with Hunter Henry, Demario Douglas, and Kayshon Boutte leading the team in yards during his time at QB.
Despite that, in the ten games that Maye played over 75% of snaps, he averaged 18 FPG. Which would’ve been good enough for QB13 last season. Maye also flashed legitimate rushing upside during that span, averaging a league-high 7.41 YPC, and tying for 5th in expected rushing points per game at (2.8) despite only having one designed run the entire season.
The Patriots made a clear effort to provide more support for Maye this offseason. Bringing in Mike Vrabel as their new head coach and bringing back former multi-time-champion Josh McDaniels as their OC. The Patriots also added some structure to the offensive side of the ball. Signing veteran WR Stefon Diggs, drafting OL Will Campbell, RB TreVeyon Henderson, and WR Kyle Williams in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.
At his current ADP of QB14 (114.9) on Underdog, Maye is my favorite quarterback to target in every draft. You’re not paying a big price for a player who has legit top-7 upside at QB. Even if the breakout season doesn’t fully come to be, Maye still provides you a strong weekly floor with his rushing ability.
Avoid – Jared Goff
Jared Goff has revived his career over the past three seasons in Detroit, averaging 17.6 fantasy points per game — good enough for QB10 over that span. He’s now coming off his best season yet with the Lions, finishing as the QB7 while averaging 19.1 FPG. But despite that, I have a little concern about his current QB15 price tag (118.5 ADP) on Underdog.
One of the biggest red flags is his touchdown regression. In Goff’s first two years in Detroit, he had a TD rate of 4.9% and 5.0%. Last year, however, that number spiked to 6.9%. As I mentioned with Baker Mayfield, quarterbacks who post unusually high TD rates almost always regress the following season.
My other concern is the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the offensive genius behind Detroit’s explosive and efficient offense for the past years. With Johnson now the head coach in Chicago, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Lions’ offense regressed a bit because of his absence.
It wouldn’t shock me if Goff finished around that QB14-17 range this year. He also goes in the same range as guys who pose as potential breakout candidates in Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy. But in a format like Best Ball, you’re trying to maximize your potential. With the expected regression and notable coaching changes on the offensive side of the ball, Goff feels like someone to avoid this year.
Target – J.J McCarthy
J.J. McCarthy enters his second NFL season, but his first as a starter. After letting Kirk Cousins walk in free agency, the Vikings selected McCarthy in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Before tearing his meniscus last season, McCarthy flashed a strong showing throughout training camp and preseason. Now healthy, McCarthy is going at a favorable price in best ball formats — currently being drafted as the QB16 (121.5 ADP) on Underdog.
Before we look into McCarthy himself, I want to dive into the Vikings QBs and offense in relation to fantasy since head coach Kevin O’Connell took over in Minnesota in 2022.
2022 – Kirk Cousins (17 games) – min 75% of snaps played per game
- 17.4 FPG (QB12)
- 260.1 Passing Yards P/G
- 4.5% TD Rate
2023 – Kirk Cousins (8 Games)
- 18.7 FPG (QB7)
- 291.1 YDS/G
- 5.8% TD Rate
2023 – Joshua Dobbs (4 Games)
- 19.9 FPG (QB10)
- 208 YDS/G
- 3.9% TD Rate
2023 – Nick Mullens (3 Games)
- 20.8 FPG (QB8)
- 370 YDS/G
- 5.3% TD Rate
2024 – Sam Darnold (17 Games)
- 18.1 FPG (QB9)
- 254.1 YDS/G
- 6.4% TD Rate
Vikings Passing Touchdowns
- 2024 – 35 (5th)
- 2023 – 30 (4th)
- 2022 – 30 (T-4th)
Vikings Passing Yards
- 2024 – 4379 (T-5th)
- 2023 – 4700 (1st)
- 2022 – 4818 (2nd)
The fantasy and NFL production from Vikings quarterbacks in O’Connell’s system speaks for itself. Whether it’s turning Cousins into a consistent QB1, reviving Sam Darnold’s career, or making guys like Mullens and Dobbs viable fantasy starters, the system has elevated whoever is under center.
Even if you’re skeptical of McCarthy’s raw talent, it would be short-sighted to deny that a first-round pick — with far more upside than Dobbs or Mullens — doesn’t have the opportunity to exceed those results in the same environment.
McCarthy brings an underrated rushing element that could boost his production even further than the previous QBs in that system. At his current cost of QB16, I’m 100% buying in. While I’m a believer in McCarthy’s talent, I’m an even bigger believer in O’Connell as a coach and offensive mind. Based on O’Connell’s past production with QBs, if McCarthy simply delivers solid quarterback play, a Top 10 fantasy finish is well within reason.
Target – Jordan Love
Jordan Love is shaping up to be one of the more compelling values in best ball drafts, currently going off the board as QB18 (126.4 ADP) on Underdog. After an impressive first season as a full-time starter in 2023 — where he finished as the QB6 in FPG (18.8) — Love took a step back last year, finishing as QB17 with 15.6 FPG.
Still, I’m willing to buy back into Love for this upcoming season. Love battled through multiple injuries last season, starting in Week 1 when he sprained his MCL in the Friday night game vs the Eagles in Brazil, forcing him to miss the next two games. Then, in Week 8, Love sprained his groin due to his lingering knee injury.
While all QBs play through injuries, Love played through two that limited his mobility and fantasy production (as evidenced by the numbers). During weeks 1, 4-7, Love averaged 22.2 FPG, 35.8 passing attempts, and the Packers threw 61.1% (12th in the NFL) of the team’s plays. During weeks 8-17, Love averaged 14.6 FPG, 26 passing attempts, and threw the ball 49.2% (31st in the NFL) of the team’s plays. If you want an even further sample size, in 2023, Love averaged 34.1 passing attempts, and the Packers threw the ball on 60.4% of team plays. Data from Fantasy Points
It’s clear the Packers’ offense became much more conservative post-injury. While I expect Josh Jacobs to have a solid workload in the run game again, I also anticipate the team will regress towards the middle of the pack in throw rate. That direction makes even more sense after Green Bay used its 23rd overall pick to select WR Matthew Golden, giving Love another weapon alongside Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft.
Love’s floor is that QB16-20 range – right where he’s being drafted – but if the Packers regress back to a higher throw rate, like they were pre-groin injury and in 2023, Love has the potential to return a top 12 QB finish this season.
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