Quarterback. It’s the most important position in football. Having a game-changer is one of the greatest advantages a team can have in the modern NFL. Lacking a serviceable one is a season wrecker. Every offseason, teams evaluate their quarterback room and map out a plan to ensure the room is heading in the right direction. In this piece, I will analyze the quarterback situation for teams in various states: purgatory, desperation, anxiety, and uncertainty.
Purgatory – teams stuck with overpaid veterans that need to hit the reset button but can’t
Cleveland Browns
The Browns truly earned their place in purgatory. They elected to trade 3 – 1st Round Picks and some change for the right to give Deshaun Watson an NFL record $230 million dollars fully guaranteed, despite… I could go a few directions here. Despite already having Baker Mayfield, the starting quarterback for the first playoff victory in expansion Browns history? Despite Watson eliminating the Browns from contention? Despite Watson facing 24 lawsuits? It was a disaster in the making that somehow turned out worse than expected. Watson has started just 19 games over the past three seasons due to suspension and injuries. And when he’s played? He’s been the worst quarterback in football. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is coming off a 41 touchdown season with the Bucs.
Moving forward, it’s ugly for the Browns. Watson is owed $92 million fully guaranteed coming off an achilles tear and three consecutive seasons of atrocious play. Their best option long term would be to draft a quarterback with the 2nd overall pick: Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders. However, this is a team that may lack the patience to roll into next season with a rookie pencilled in as the starter. If released by the Falcons, Kirk Cousins could be a serviceable option. Cousins played for Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski. Perhaps the two could reunite and rebound together after forgettable seasons last year. Joe Flacco and Jimmy Garoppolo are other options who could provide serviceable play. Mac Jones would be an interesting option. As a former 1st round pick who finished 2nd in rookie of the year voting, Jones would offer a modest upside that most backup options lack.
Ultimately, I believe the Browns will sign a veteran and draft a quarterback. If they can get Kirk Cousins on the veteran minimum, that would be optimal. If not, Joe Flacco would be a plausible backup option. Either player would offer familiarity for a front office and coaching staff that needs to turn things around in 2025. As for adding a rookie, the Browns have the 2nd overall pick. This guarantees them one of the top two rookie quarterback options, if they want one of them. Cam Ward would be most optimal. They could also spend a Day 2 pick on another prospect if they don’t love any of the quarterbacks. The team may already be in purgatory, but taking a quarterback you don’t love in the 1st round is a way to ensure you stay in purgatory, not escape it.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are not simply in purgatory, they are on the brink of hell. Salary cap hell. Towards the end of the Drew Brees era, the Saints started utilizing void years to maximize their cap space. This allowed them to put a better team around their aging superstar. Mindnumbingly, the Saints decided to continue this strategy after Brees retired. Every year, they dig themselves deeper and deeper. It has reached the point where they cannot afford to rebuild, they simply have to play it out. That means that Derek Carr will be their quarterback in 2025.
Fortunately for the Saints, Carr has been relatively healthy throughout his career, playing 15 or more games every year prior to last season. Their backup quarterback options are Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. Neither player won a game they started. I like Spencer Rattler and believe he could develop into a serviceable quarterback. That said, the Saints need a reliable backup heading into 2025. There are a couple of familiar options on the free agent market. One of those options is Cooper Rush, who played for and with new Saints Head Coach Kellen Moore in Dallas. Rush actually beat out Kellen Moore for the backup position in 2017, effectively signaling the end of Moore’s playing career. Another option is former Saints quarterback Jameis Winston. Throughout the Super Bowl in New Orleans, Winston was everywhere making media appearances. He is beloved by the city and would be an exciting backup.
At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter who the Saints sign to be the backup. Cooper Rush, Jameis Winston, Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc. This team is going to need Derek Carr to play up to his best form and for their aged veteran team to discover the fountain of youth. Carr is not capable of carrying a team, but he is capable of serviceable quarterback play. The pathway is there for them to win the NFC South if all goes right. That’s probably the ceiling. Ultimately, the Saints need to start instilling a long term vision before it’s too late. And it might already be too late.
Anxiety – teams with a franchise quarterback on their roster, as long as they want them.
Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford can still play. If the Rams and Stafford can agree to a contract that they are both comfortable with, that’s the best path forward for both parties. With that said, this situation might be heading towards a break. Tom Pelissero reported that the Rams had given Stafford’s camp permission to explore a potential trade. Ultimately, Stafford’s future in Los Angeles will come down to his contract. The Rams currently owe Matthew Stafford $27 million in 2025 and $31 million in 2026 with none of it guaranteed. That’s good for an AAV of $29 million over the next two years, less than half of the highest paid quarterback.
The dilemma is simple, Stafford wants more money. It has been reported that he’s looking for $50 million per year. The Kirk Cousins contract from last offseason may represent the closest fair market comparison for a player with Stafford’s resume; two years, $90 million fully guaranteed. The Rams, however, are likely tepid to match that figure. They may feel more comfortable with a 1 year deal. Furthermore, trading Stafford would allow the Rams to accumulate future draft capital, which they could use to find their next franchise quarterback in future draft classes. As for what the compensation for a Stafford trade might look like, the Aaron Rodgers trade from two years ago serves as a blueprint for what the Rams may be able to get, which is ironic because…
If the Rams trade Matthew Stafford, the best option to be their starting quarterback in 2025 is Aaron Rodgers. He’d probably come at a very fair price too. Hear me out. Rodgers lives in Malibu, which is 20 minutes from the Rams Woodland Hills practice facility. It’s also worth noting that Rams coaches Sean McVay and Mike LaFleur are both close with Matt LaFleur, whom Rodgers won two MVPs with at the start of the decade. They also added Rodgers former and beloved quarterbacks coach, Alex Van Pelt, as a senior assistant. If the Rams move on from Stafford, Rodgers can definitely join this team and play at a high level. Another veteran option worth mentioning is Jimmy Gar- actually, nevermind. If the Rams prefer a more long term solution, Sam Darnold could be an option. He’d be expensive, but his trajectory aligns better with the current youthful nucleus. All that said, I believe the most likely scenario involves the Rams to work things out with Stafford for 2025 at least… but if not? Aaron Rodgers and Sean McVay would be a very intriguing duo to follow.
San Francisco 49ers
Including the Niners in the anxiety category might constitute clickbait, but I don’t care. Until Brock Purdy signs an extension, there will be an annoying discussion as to whether the Niners should trade Brock Purdy and sign Aaron Rodgers. It would be pure cinema getting to watch Kyle Shanahan and Aaron Rodgers interact on the sidelines. It would probably be art on the field too. Not to mention Rodgers history with the Niners, growing up a fan only to get stood up on draft day. And I haven’t even gotten started on a potential Brock Purdy trade. Believe it or not, the Niners would get a haul. Brock Purdy is a franchise quarterback.
That’s why none of that is going to happen. The Niners and Brock Purdy will agree to an extension. But what will his market look like? Dak Prescott reset the market with a $60 million AAV just prior to the start of last season. Brock Purdy has every right to walk right in and demand this deal… but he doesn’t have the leverage Dak had. Given the both party’s desire to not let the negotiation become a distraction, I believe a deal could be settled upon pretty early in the offseason.
The contract that I see working as a blueprint for the Brock Purdy extension is the Jordan Love extension from last season. Love received an average annual value of $55 million per year with $100 million fully guaranteed and $160 million guaranteed. I expect Purdy to at worst match both of these numbers. Both quarterbacks have been incredibly productive in similar quarterback friendly systems, but Purdy has accomplished more. It’s more likely than not that he’ll get a similar deal as Love adjusted for cap inflation, besting the raw numbers to become the 2nd highest paid quarterback in the NFL by average annual value.
Desperation – teams without a quarterback under contract worthy of starting
Las Vegas Raiders
If only things for the Raiders could be simple. They have the greatest quarterback of all time in their organization. Unfortunately, Tom Brady is a minority owner, which means he can’t suit up and play. That leaves the Raiders with Aidan O’Connell and Garnder Minshew under contract. Gardner Minshew was supposed to be the stopgap last season, but it didn’t work out. Aidan O’Connell was arguably better, but not particularly good. The Raiders will need to find a new quarterback. It is expected that Tom Brady will play a key role in identifying the next franchise guy.
The Raiders currently hold the 6th overall pick in the upcoming draft. That might be out of the range of guys like Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders unless they manage to trade up. Some veteran options for the Raiders include Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins. If Brady wants Rodgers… no no, that would never happen. Would it? I could see the Raiders trading for Matthew Stafford. He could offer stability for the Pete Carrol era and allow the Raiders to find a future franchise quarterback with more patience. Sam Darnold could be a potential long-term solution, but I wonder about his fit not with the coaching staff, but with Brady. Darnold’s style of play might not be what the GOAT prefers from his team’s quarterback. He might not be a coach, but his opinion will hold great weight.
If the Raiders can’t land Stafford, I expect them to get a rookie, and I expect them to do so by attempting to trade up for Shedeur Sanders. Brady and Sanders have a mentor-type relationship given Deion’s (Shedeur’s father) relationship with Tom. Shedeur also plays a style of game that Brady respects, judging from Brady’s commentary on various quarterbacks. If they can’t get Sanders, perhaps they grab Will Howard to reunite him with college offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Regardless of draft plans, the team should push for an established veteran such as Rodgers or Wilson if they can’t land Stafford. This would allow the team to develop their rookie rather than rush them into action.
New York Giants
It was like a slow moving car crash. When the Giants signed Daniel Jones to that extension, everyone knew it was a mistake. Even in a “breakout” year, Jones only accumulated 22 total touchdowns and just under 4,000 total yards. The decision is only made worse when we remember that extending Jones led to the Giants tagging Barkley rather than continue negotiating an extension with him. Two years later, neither Jones nor Barkley is a Giant, and John Mara has grown impatient. They need to find a franchise quarterback, and fast.
Given the desperation, acquiring a veteran seems like a sound idea. The prize of the ball is Matthew Stafford. With Stafford, the Giants would have a quarterback they should be able to win with. It might be a short sighted move, but the current regime does not have the luxury of worrying about a future they may not be around for. If they can’t land Stafford, Justin Fields sticks out as an intriguing option. Fields offers game-changing upside with his legs despite struggles as a passer. If the team is looking for a younger player with upside, Fields is a solid choice. Sam Darnold serves as an option as well following his breakout season. He would be expensive, but would serve as an upgrade to what the Giants have been working with.
I expect the Giants to aggressively try to trade up… not for Shedeur Sanders, but for Cam Ward. The Giants had the opportunity to draft Michael Penix, JJ, McCarthy, or Bo Nix in 2024. They passed. It’s clear the regime is looking for a quarterback with significant athletic upside. If there’s a team that will give up a haul to get Cam Ward, it’s the Giants. He’s the best prospect in the draft and arguably the only one worth a 1st round pick with significant physical upside. If they can’t land Ward, well, they have to land someone. This team is desperate. If the Giants don’t believe they can trade up for Ward, I would expect them to either sign Sam Darnold to a long-term deal or sign Justin Fields as a bridge and draft whatever quarterback they like most when they’re on the clock.
New York Jets
After two top 3 draft selections in Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson didn’t pan out, the Jets traded for future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. He was supposed to save the Jets from quarterback purgatory. And he did, kinda. After suffering a season ending injury in 2023, Rodgers rebounded in 2024, throwing for 28 touchdowns and 3,897 yards, both 3rd best in team history. However, the Jets finished the season 5-12, with a 2-7 record in one score games, and cleaned house. Rodgers will be included in the house cleaning, so the Jets will need a new quarterback moving forward.
Unfortunately for the Jets, the top free agent quarterback is Sam Darnold, who probably won’t be coming back. And while offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand coached Matthew Stafford in Detroit, it seems unlikely the Jets will trade for a veteran quarterback who wants a new contract after getting rid of Rodgers. Furthermore, Russell Wilson could also make sense on a cheap deal, but General Manager Darren Mougey was in Denver when they traded for, extended, and cut Russell Wislon. So what do the Jets do? They need to add to the room, that’s a given. They should draft a quarterback, but they also need to sign one. Some free agent options in their ballpark include Jimmy Garoppolo, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Jameis Winston, and Joe Flacco. None of these guys inspire much confidence, but the Jets sold that hope when they decided to move off Rodgers.
Ultimately, the Jets have propelled themselves into a tough situation. They’re in desperate need for a quarterback, with a weak rookie class. This rebuild is likely a multi-year project, meaning a bridge quarterback like Jameis Winston or Jimmy Garoppolo would be fine. Justin Fields and Mac Jones would offer younger bridge options with less certainty, but more upside. Any of these bridge quarterbacks would do short-term. The Jets need to find a long-term option. I could see the Jets being a team that reaches for a player like Jaxon Dart well before they should. The smart play would be to have patience, but the one constant, Woody Johnson, has never been a patient man. Expect a circus.
Pittsburgh Steelers
In 2024, the Steelers reset their quarterback room by signing Russell Wilson and trading for Justin Fields. This experiment went, okay? Both quarterbacks were remarkably mediocre, which was enough for the Steelers to make the playoffs and go one and done for the 4th time in 5 years. It appeared the original plan was to see if either player showed enough promise to solidify themselves as a potential long term solution. That didn’t happen. Now the question is whether either player showed enough to warrant bringing back in 2025.
At this point in his career, Russell Wilson is what he is. He’s a shell of his former self, but is still a serviceable starter. Justin Fields would be a much more intriguing option if the Steelers chose to retain one of the two. Fields is a dynamic rusher, it would be a fun experiment to give Fields a full season in a system built around his mobility and see how it turns out. If they chose to go this route, they could pair Fields with Alabama’s Jalen Milroe on Day 2 of the draft. This would give them two quarterbacks with similar skill sets.
As fun as that scenario would be, the Steelers should look outside the organization for their starter in 2025. There are three quarterbacks who could serve as upgrades: Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, and Matthew Stafford. Which player the Steelers prefer would depend on their goals. The cheapest option of the three would be Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has a ton of respect for Mike Tomlin too. If there was a coach who could easily manage Rodgers personality, it’s Tomlin. This is why I ultimately expect Aaron Rodgers to be the Steelers starting quarterback in 2025, coming on a relative discount compared to what he’s been paid in previous seasons.
Tennessee Titans
I must admit, I originally had the Titans in the “Uncertain” category. That’s because I’m not ready to give up on Will Levis. I still believe he could have a future in this league. He’s got the ability, he’s just gotta stop with the boneheaded plays. That said, I no longer believe his future will be in Tennessee. He’ll probably have to go somewhere else where he’s allowed to get comfortable in their system before taking the field. Furthermore, the coach and general manager that drafted him are both gone, and the team has the 1st overall pick in the NFL draft. It seems pretty clear what the Titans may want to do, right?
Not quite. The Titans have a lot of holes that need fixing. This team is not a quarterback away. There will be significant offers on the table for that 1st overall pick, offers that may be hard to refuse. Elite non-quarterback talents such as Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter that will also be tempting. That said, they still need another quarterback. Sam Darnold sticks out as a potential long-term solution for the Titans if they want to take care of the issue in free agency and focus on building out the rest of the team around him. Aaron Rodgers may be another veteran option in free agency. Rodgers is rumored to like the Nashville area, but the Titans may be lower on his list than other teams. Another scenario to consider, what if I’m wrong and there’s still a chance for Will Levis in Tennessee? In that case, bringing in a veteran such as Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, etc. to compete with Will Levis could be a path the team considers while rebuilding the rest of the roster.
What should the Titans do? Easy. Draft Cam Ward. He’s the best quarterback prospect in this draft. If the team is picking high enough to draft a quarterback again in the future, odds are, it will be a different staff in charge. Ward offers the sort of upside that an offensive minded coach like Brian Callahan should love to work with. If the Titans don’t want a rookie quarterback, I just don’t see a scenario where Will Levis is the Titans starting quarterback next season. Sam Darnold sticks out as the most appealing veteran. He’s had success in a scheme similar to Callahan’s and would provide a feeling of long-term stability. If the Titans sign Darnold, they would also be able to use the 1st round pick to build the team surrounding the quarterback, rather than use the asset on finding a quarterback.
Uncertainty – teams with a young option, but lots of questions
Atlanta Falcons
Last offseason, the Falcons went out and signed Kirk Cousins to what was essentially a 2 year deal with $90 million fully guaranteed, with another $10 million becoming guaranteed on March 17th of this year. They then shocked everybody when they proceeded to spend their 1st round pick on quarterback Michael Penix Jr. They spent the aftermath of the draft explaining their plan, which was an attempt to replicate what the Packers did with Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers, giving them a few years to develop behind a veteran. It seemed like an alright plan outside of the shock factor. Well…
The plan went off the rails quickly when Kirk Cousins struggled coming off an achilles tear. It got so bad that the team eventually had no choice but to bench Cousins for Penix while amidst a race for the divisional title. Now, the Falcons are left in an interesting situation. They have their potential franchise quarterback in Penix, but what happens to Cousins? Kirk Cousins is currently owed a fully guaranteed $27.5 million in 2025. He also possesses a no trade clause. And to make matters worse, his $10 million roster bonus becomes guaranteed on the 17th of March. This leaves a dilemma for the Falcons. Do they pay $37.5 million for a veteran backup? Or do they pay $27.5 million for said veteran to go away?
As much as the Falcons say they would be okay with keeping Cousins as their backup, I don’t actually believe it. The opportunity to save $10 million to use towards building their roster around Penix seems too appealing. They may try to trade Cousins, and maybe they find a team willing to eat a portion of his contract, but I think he ultimately gets designated as a post-June 1st cut. As for a veteran backup to Penix, perhaps Jameis Winston could be an option. Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot was in New Orleans when they originally signed Jameis to backup Brees. Jimmy Garoppolo could also be a noteworthy backup option, as he has experience in systems similar to the one the Falcons run.
Indianapolis Colts
Okay, I want to make something very clear. It is way too early to give up on Anthony Richardson. This is a freakishly athletic player who needed reps and development. Through two seasons, Richardson has only played in 15 games and thrown 348 passes. That is much too small of a sample size… but that’s also the problem. Anthony Richardson hasn’t just struggled when on the field, he has also struggled to stay on the field. At some point if you’re the Colts, you need to have a reliable backup option ready just in case.
The Colts situation is unique because they don’t necessarily need a surefire starter. Signing a guy like Sam Darnold or Aaron Rodgers would all but end Richardson’s time in Indianapolis. What the Colts need is a backup option with the ability to compete with Richardson, but without a pedigree that would usurp Richardson before the battle even begins. There are a few options that stick out to me. One of those options is Justin Fields. Both Fields and Richardson offer playmaking ability with their legs. This would allow the Colts to maintain consistency in their system from one quarterback to the other. Daniel Jones could be another option for the Colts. Jones has plenty of starting experience and could come in and compete for the job. He also has enough rushing ability to maintain schematic continuity.
There is one quarterback that stands head and shoulders above the rest when it comes to the Colts needs at the position, and that quarterback is Justin Fields. Between Richardson and Fields, the Colts should be able to craft a run centric offensive scheme that they should be able to find success with. It would allow the team to use the quarterback as a rushing threat full time, which forces the defense to either account for the quarterback (leaving bigger holes for the running back) or ignore the quarterback (leaving the quarterback free to run). Richardson is a question mark at this point, but adding a quarterback like Fields would increase the Colts chances of having their quarterback of the future on the roster in 2025.
Minnesota Vikings
During the 2024 offseason, the Vikings signed Sam Darnold to be their bridge starter and drafted JJ McCarthy to be their franchise quarterback. Seems simple enough, right? Well, things changed. JJ McCarthy suffered a season ending injury in the preseason and Sam Darnold turned in a career year, throwing for 35 touchdowns and over 4,300 yards while leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record. Heading into the 2025 offseason, Sam Darnold is due to be a free agent and JJ McCarthy has played zero NFL snaps and missed out on a full season of practice reps. The question is simple, what should the Vikings do?
The first decision the Vikings have to make is how they handle Sam Darnold’s looming free agency. The decision seemed pretty clear heading into Week 18 with a chance to win the division and secure a first round bye. That was until Darnold struggled in the regular season finale and then again in the playoffs. That made the decision much less clear. Another factor in this decision is JJ McCarthy. The Vikings love McCarthy, and rightfully so. They traded up for him in the draft last year and by some indications may have won the starting job outright in training camp if not for a knee injury. As long as the team sees McCarthy as their long term option, they will probably refrain from making a long-term commitment to Darnold. I expect the Vikings to apply the franchise tag to Darnold. Beyond that? It’s a wait and see. If a team makes an offer that both Darnold and the Vikings find appealing, then they’ll probably trade Darnold and re-sign Daniel Jones as a veteran backup for McCarthy. If not, this is where it gets interesting. It all comes down to whether Darnold signs the tag immediately or not. If he signs the tag, it becomes fully guaranteed no matter what. That would mean that Darnold would be locked in as the Vikings quarterback if they cannot find a trade partner for his services. If he refuses to sign the tag, the Vikings can theoretically rescind the tag if they fail to find a trade partner but still wish to start JJ McCarthy. This situation might be one of the more interesting ones to follow, at least in the early offseason.
