Identifying values and selecting sleepers in Fantasy Football drafts can make or break your season. Many people believe the draft is won in the early rounds, but often it is the value you find down the board that makes your team a true championship contender.
Today we dive into some sleeper candidates using current ADP data to find values.
Quarterback – Dak Prescott ADP: QB15
Prescott is coming off a frustrating 2024 season. He missed the second half of the season due to a torn hamstring. Prior to the injury we did not see the best of Dak. He threw for over 300 yards in only 2 contests, failed to throw more than two touchdown passes in any game and tossed multiple interceptions in 4 games leading to a disappointing 11 to 8 touchdown to interception ratio in his 8 games played.
Even with the poor play last year, there is reason for optimism this year. The Cowboys went out and made major additions to the wide receiver core and offensive line. Both of these units let down Prescott in 2024. One place they did not invest major capital was at running back. The team’s investments -including the $240 million investment in Prescott – could signal a significantly heavier passing load. I expect the Cowboys neutral pass rate and passing attempts as a whole to rise.
The Cowboys went out and acquired George Pickens to form one of the better receiving duos in the league alongside superstar Ceedee Lamb. Pickens will be a huge asset for Prescott on the outside, and will help open up the middle of the field for Ceedee Lamb and tight end Jake Ferguson.
With new weapons, an improved offensive line and a new play-caller, there is reason to believe Prescott can return to form in a big way this season. His rushing volume may dip -especially early in the season- as he works his way back from last year’s torn hamstring, but the increased passing volume and better weaponry should more than make up for that. I expect Prescott to finish as a top 10 QB, and be a consistent fantasy starter who will offer top 5 upside.
Running Back – Brian Robinson Jr. ADP: RB33
Robinson is once again expected to enter this season as the Commanders “lead back”. The team added no one to the backfield other then a rookie in the 7th round . Austin Ekeler will continue to play a complementary role, especially in passing situations. Although Ekeler will take away some potential touches and opportunities -especially in the pass game-, his presence may actually work to Robinsons benefit by keeping him fresh and healthy. Injuries were a major story for Robinson last year. He missed multiple games with hamstring and knee injuries, and saw his snap share limited in multiple other games due to injuries. When healthy -games he played >40% of the teams snaps- he averaged 17 touches and 82 yards per game. Robinson did that in 10 games last year. If he is able to maintain -or improve- those numbers over a full season, there is clear upside for fantasy.
The projection for Robinson this year is simple. He plays in an offense that is projected to be among the league’s best, as well as one of the leagues most up-tempo. Playing in a great offense offers running backs significantly more scoring opportunities, which a big back like Robinson benefits greatly from. The up-tempo offense provides the opportunity for more snaps and opportunities for touches. The up-tempo nature of the offense can partially minimize the loss of snaps and touches to Ekeler.
Robinson is simply being drafted too low. He may not be a special talent, but he is a starting running back on a projected top offense. He has clear 12 touchdown upside which offers fantasy managers great value at RB33. I expect Robinson to finish inside the top 24 RBs and be one of the better values in the draft.
Wide Receiver – Jauan Jennings ADP: WR45
Last year, Jennings put to rest any thoughts of him being merely a “depth receiving option.” Entering last year, Jennings had 963 career receiving yards. In 2024 he more then doubled that total, breaking out for 975 yards and 6 touchdowns on 77 receptions. The 49ers moved on from Deebo Samuel, and will be without Brandon Aiyuk for a chunk of the year. Those losses -along with last years momentum- clear the runway for Jennings to enter this season as the 49ers WR1.
It took some time for Jennings to find his footing and get an opportunity, but now that he has it he appears to be making the most of it. Alongside the impressive counting stats, he also boasted impressive underlying metrics. According to FantasyPros, after week 8 -the first week without Aiyuk- Jennings averaged 8 targets per game culminating in 13.7 expected fantasy points per game. He earned a 25% target share and a 33% first read target rate. If these numbers carry over -or improve- he will have the opportunities needed to make him a startable option on a weekly basis.
The 49ers also lost key pieces on defense, which could lead to closer or higher scoring games. This would add more volume to the 49ers passing game, and in turn boost Jennings’ value even more.
Jennings is currently an afterthought in drafts, evidenced by his WR45 ADP. If this ADP holds, there won’t be a better value in drafts then Jauan Jennings. He carries some risk due to his late breakout age, but that does not scare me away from my belief in him being a locked in top 30 option, who has the potential to be a “set it and forget it” WR2.
Tight End – Isaiah Likely ADP: TE23
Likely was crowned the week 1 waiver wire darling last year, but was unable to replicate his week 1 production consistently throughout last season. Although the production was not there consistently, there is reason to believe it may be in the near future. In the offseason, there was consistent buzz around the potential departure of fellow tight end Mark Andrews. Although that talk never came to fruition, it does hint that Andrews is playing his last year in Baltimore. Likely’s snap share was already on the rise, and I believe there is a chance he becomes the preferred tight end in Baltimore this year.
Likely is entering a contract year and rumors around the league have indicated that the Ravens view him as “the tight end of the future.” I expect his role to increase drastically this season, accompanied by a big payday to lock down Likely as the long term solution at tight end for Baltimore.
Lamar Jackson loves throwing to his tight ends and already has incredible rapport with Likely. Likely is a great value at TE23 and represents a good “call your shot” option down the board. Tight end has historically been a very underwhelming position, but unexpected risers have been what keeps the position afloat. I see Likely as one of those risers, and think he has the opportunity to be a top 12 option at tight end this upcoming season. If Andrews were to miss time with injury or Likely sees his role increase more than expected, he would have difference making upside at the position.
More To Come
ADP is a consistently changing metric. There will be plenty of players moving up and down the board as week 1 nears closer. Stay tuned as we make sure you’re prepared with all the sleepers, breakouts and busts this upcoming fantasy season.
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