With the draft and free agency officially over, NFL teams have set their rosters and are now preparing to win a Super Bowl in 2025. In this article, we will look at the over/under win totals for every NFL team and decide whether they will exceed or fall short of their expected win total.
Note: All Over/Under Totals are from ESPN and were recorded on May 1st, 2025.
Arizona Cardinals
2024 Record: 8-9
Over/Under Line: 8.5 Wins
The Arizona Cardinals have been steadily building their culture since hiring head coach Jonathan Gannon for the 2023 season, and had their best season under him in 2025 with 8 wins. This offseason, the Cardinals upgraded their pass rush by signing recent Super Bowl winner Josh Sweat and reunited with Calais Campbell, who spent 9 years with the team. They also extended breakout TE Trey McBride on a 4-year deal that should age well. The focus on defense continued into the draft, where they selected a defensive player with 6 out of their 7 selections. With improvements to the defense and further development in the connection between Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona feels like a team that can challenge for a wild card spot in 2025.
Verdict: Over
Atlanta Falcons
2024 Record: 8-9
Over/Under Line: 7.5 Wins
After years of using high-first round picks on offensive weapons, the Falcons FINALLY addressed what seems like has been their biggest need for years now by drafting 2 first round edge rushers in Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., though they gave up significant assets to do so. I think that this season hinges a lot on how good QB Michael Penix Jr. is, and if he can elevate the talented weapons on this roster more than an aging Kirk Cousins has been able to. With the uncertainty at QB, and a division that got better with both the Carolina Panthers getting more talent and the New Orleans Saints getting healthier, the Falcons seem like a team that is in danger of failing to meet even modest expectations.
Verdict: Under
Baltimore Ravens
2024 Record: 12-5
Over/Under Line: 11.5 Wins
The Baltimore Ravens had a classic Ravens offseason, where they drafted talented players at value and added a veteran playmaker for the offense (this year’s choice was DeAndre Hopkins). They still have a two-time MVP in Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry to run down the throat of defenses, and a defense that finished the year very strong. The verdict on Baltimore’s season always comes based on how far they will go in the playoffs, but if the defense plays at the level they did at the end of the season last year, a 13 or even 14 win season is not out of the question in Lamarland.
Verdict: Over
Buffalo Bills
2024 Record: 13-4
Over/Under Line: 11.5 Wins
After another playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2024, the Bills aggressively addressed their defense by locking up home grown stars on contract extensions and drafting defensive players with their first 5 draft picks. They especially focused on their run defense in the draft, which allowed 130 yards per game in the playoffs. Josh Allen is an offense unto himself, and he is still complemented by a solid running back in James Cook and a very good offensive line. Expect Buffalo’s dominance of the AFC East to continue in 2025, as I don’t expect any other team in the division to finish above .500.
Verdict: Over
Carolina Panthers
2024 Record: 5-12
Over/Under Line: 6.5 Wins
The improvement that Bryce Young showed in 2024 gave Carolina Panthers fans optimism that they hadn’t had since the prime days of Cam Newton, and the Panthers front office was smart to add talent around Young. Adding Tet McMillan gives Young a true no. 1 option in Dave Canales’ offense, and the Panthers added talented defensive players in the draft to a defense that desperately needed an infusion of talent at all 3 levels. While they may not be a playoff team yet, they should be better than the 2024 iteration of the team.
Verdict: Over
Chicago Bears
2024 Record: 5-12
Over/Under Line: 8.5 Wins
The Chicago Bears won offseason champion awards from many analysts this year after hiring new HC Ben Johnson and adding to their offensive line in free agency, but I would slow the breaks on the Bears hype train just a tad. They are still, at best, the 4th best team in the best division in football. While Caleb Williams showed flashes last season, he still has to cut down on the sack totals and learn a new scheme that will hopefully maximize his talents more as a creator. I still think the Bears ceiling is very high, as the new young core of Williams, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden III could be terrifying in the next few years if Johnson lives up to his billing as an offensive genius. I just think that it won’t happen right away, and there will be some inevitable growing pains.
Verdict: Under
Cincinnati Bengals
2024 Record: 9-8
Over/Under Line: 10.5 Wins
The Bengals are now fully committed to the Burrow-Chase-Higgins core for the next few years, with significant financial capital invested in each player in this talented triumvirate. However, the question in Cincy will always be whether they can at least field an average defense to prevent each game from becoming a 42-35 shootout, and I’m not convinced they did enough in the draft or in free agency to address needs in the defense. I’m not sold that they will be much better than last year, and the line is higher than their record was in 2024. I believe this is a wild-card team, and I’m willing to bet against them reaching 11 wins.
Verdict: Under
Cleveland Browns
2024 Record: 3-14
Over/Under Line: 4.5 Wins
Who is going to play quarterback for the 2025 Cleveland Browns? It’s hard to get excited about the options currently on the depth chart. Joe Flacco is old and struggled last year in Indianapolis, Kenny Pickett has failed to live up to his draft position, and Dillon Gabriel + Shadeur Sanders are rookies who have a lot of development to do. (The ironic thing is that all of these options would likely perform better than the guy they gave $255 million guaranteed to). Combine this with the fact that they are in a division with 3 teams with playoff aspirations, and this could get ugly real fast. At least Myles Garrett is gonna stay, right?
Verdict: Under
Dallas Cowboys
2024 Record: 7-10
Over/Under Line: 7.5 Wins
Once again, the Cowboys stuck to their patented free agent strategy of doing pretty much nothing to supplement their star players, leaving them vulnerable to a single injury ruining their playoff chances like it did in 2024 with Dak Prescott. I have questions about a first time head coach in Brian Schottenheimer managing a veteran roster, and how his offense will work. The Cowboys are banking on internal improvements from former draft picks to succeed, but I think they are stuck in the depths of mediocrity without a path to the playoffs in the competitive NFC East. If Dak or Ceedee or Micah Parsons goes down again, it could very well be another disappointing year for America’s Team.
Verdict: Under
Denver Broncos
2024 Record: 10-7
Over/Under Line: 9.5 Wins
The Denver Broncos surprised a lot of people with their 2024 performance, combining stellar defense with good enough offensive play to win games in a very strong AFC. While many expected Sean Payton to grab weapons in the offseason, he instead chose a more nuanced approach in the draft, drafting CB Jahdae Barron in the first round. They also added Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga in free agency to help supercharge a defense led by one of the best cornerbacks in football in Pat Surtain. I believe the 2025 Broncos are going to be a slightly better of the version of the 2024 Broncos, with a higher ceiling depending on the performance and development of Bo Nix. Expect them to compete for the AFC West crown in 2025.
Verdict: Over
Detroit Lions
2024 Record: 15-2
Over/Under Line: 10.5 Wins
Until proven otherwise, trust in the vision of Dan Campbell. This year, the main challenge will be replacing the collective brain trust of Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn in their offensive and defensive coordinator roles. Otherwise, the Lions continued to draft culture fit players and added a very good corner in free agency with the signing of DJ Reed. While the defense struggled a bit down the stretch due to injury last year, the offseason should provide enough rest and recovery time (especially for star pass rusher Aiden Hutchinson) for the defense to get healthy and return to form. The Lions should continue to push to be the best team in the NFC, and will once again be competing to try and win a Super Bowl this year.
Verdict: Over
Green Bay Packers
2024 Record: 11-6
Over/Under Line: 9.5 Wins
The Green Bay Packers will look to be better than they were in 2024, where they were the separator between the good and the great teams in the NFC. First round pick Matthew Golden gives them a true WR1 that they had failed to find in the middle rounds of previous drafts. This is a very solid team with no clear holes that should be penciled in for a Wild Card spot. The question will be if Jordan Love can elevate them past their status as the gatekeepers of the NFC’s elite. If he can clean up some of the recklessness in his game while retaining the confidence that permeates this game, the Packers can surprise some people in 2025.
Verdict: Over
Houston Texans
2024 Record: 10-7
Over/Under Line: 9.5 Wins
The Texans are coming off two straight division titles in the AFC South, and they are looking to add a 3rd straight banner to the rafters. They added two Iowa State receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the draft to further boost the supporting cast around CJ Stroud. In addition, they still have a defense that suffocated teams last season, and should see even more improvement from their young players. However, the offensive line is a real concern in Houston. It struggled mightily in 2024, and the moves they made to change up the personnel in the trenches do not profile as clear upgrades. The Texans have the talent to win a weak AFC South, but their offensive line could hold them back from reaching their ceiling.
Verdict: Over
Indianapolis Colts
2024 Record: 8-9
Over/Under Line: 7.5 Wins
The Indianapolis Colts are once again hinging their season prospects on the performance of Anthony Richardson. The flashes have been there, but inconsistency has plagued his game and held the team back. The Colts got him some help in the draft in the form of TE Tyler Warren, and they still have a good running game and offensive line. Unfortunately, I’m not a believe in AR5, and I don’t think the defense has the juice to make up for some of the offensive inconsistency. I think Shane Steichen is going to be on the hot seat after this year.
Verdict: Under
Jacksonville Jaguars
2024 Record: 4-13
Over/Under Line: 7.5 Wins
Welcome to the Travis Hunter era of Duval football. After trading up in the draft to get his guy, new GM James Gladstone now has his star of the future to build around. However, the key to this season is still Trevor Lawrence. After 4 years in Jacksonville, he still has yet to post a QBR over 60, and is now making legit starting quarterback money in the NFL. While I do think the Jaguars are going to be better than they were in 2024, they are more likely to be a frisky spoiler-type team than they will be a playoff team. 7 wins seems like a reasonable milestone for the first year of the Liam Coen/James Gladstone regime.
Verdict: Under
Kansas City Chiefs
2024 Record: 15-2
Over/Under Line: 11.5 Wins
Y’all know the drill. Patrick Mahomes is really, really good at football. He and Travis Kelce have a mind meld thing going on and its really hard to defend. Andy Reid has been coaching football for a long time for a reason. Chris Jones is still that guy on the defense. Hammering the Chiefs over has been a football staples for years, and until it stops working, I’m not going to stop doing it. Next.
Verdict: Over
Las Vegas Raiders
2024 Record: 4-13
Over/Under Line: 6.5 Wins
It feels impossible to predict where the Raiders will land in the standings this year, as its a whole new team from what we’ve seen. Out went Antonio Pearce and Gardner Minshew II, and in came Pete Carroll, Geno Smith, and potential superstar Ashton Jeanty. The Raiders also attacked the trenches in the draft, adding 2 offensive and defensive lineman each and really molding the team under a Pete Carroll identity. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders pull out some wins this year. I don’t think they are a playoff team yet, but I think that they have the talent and the culture to shock some people this year.
Verdict: Over
Los Angeles Chargers
2024 Record: 11-6
Over/Under Line: 9.5 Wins
In Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh era in Los Angeles, the Chargers will looks to improve upon their playoff appearance in 2024. The Chargers targeted playmakers early in the draft to further maximize Justin Herbert’s talents. Jesse Minter, who coached a top defense for the Chargers last season, is still here as well. I don’t value the Najee Harris signing highly, but it’s low risk and he isn’t going to be asked to carry the load. While I still question Justin Herbert’s playoff ability, the Chargers are still fundamentally sound and tough as nails, which is a recipe for success in the NFL.
Verdict: Over
Los Angeles Rams
2024 Record: 10-7
Over/Under Line: 9.5 Wins
With the time ticking until Matthew Stafford’s eventual retirement, Sean McVay and the Rams are looking to maximize what is left of this contention window. The acquisition of Davante Adams should offset the loss of Cooper Kupp as long as he can stay healthy. They addressed their squishier run defense in the draft as well. However, the NFC West figures to be very competitive this year with the 49ers returning to healthy form and the Cardinals improving. It will be up to the young Rams defense to continue improving to improve the ceiling of this team from playoffs to Super Bowl contenders. If that Jared Verse pass rush gets even better? Look out opposing QBs.
Verdict: Over
Miami Dolphins
2024 Record: 8-9
Over/Under Line: 8.5 Wins
Is it fair to say the Dolphins are cooked? Tyreek Hill admittedly was not his normal electrifying self last year due to injury, and it capped the Dolphin’s offensive ceiling. Are we sure that it was just a one-off year and not a sign of decline? Elsewhere, there are still holes throughout this roster. The secondary looks like it will be squishy if Jalen Ramsey gets his trade request. The run game struggled last year behind a bad offensive line. Tua’s cold weather struggles are well documented at this point. The team added physicality in the trenches through the draft, but those players will need time to get up to game speed. With the Patriots addressing their needs more effectively and the Jets mostly making non-Jetsy moves in the offseason, I’m not even sure Miami is the second best team in the division anymore.
Verdict: Under
Minnesota Vikings
2024 Record: 14-3
Over/Under Line: 8.5 Wins
It’s JJ McCarthy’s time in Minnesota now, and he finds himself manning the controls for a team built to protect him. The defense is still legit, led by the brain of Brian Flores and a smattering of hard-nosed players. Justin Jefferson + Jordan Addison is still one of (if not the best) WR duos in the league, and the Vikings will get a full year of TJ Hockenson and Christian Darrisaw. They added to an offensive line that let them down late in the season. Kevin O’Connell has solidified himself as the next offensive wunderkind in the head coaching role. They might not win 14 games again, but this is still a very good football team that will compete for the division crown. Even if McCarthy is just average, the Vikings could still easily win 10 games.
Verdict: Over
New England Patriots
2024 Record: 4-13
Over/Under Line: 7.5 Wins
The entire goal of the Patriots’ offseason was to surround young QB Drake Maye with the proper support on the roster and in the coaching staff. Hiring Mike Vrabel was an excellent move to set a true culture for the team. In the draft, they targeted either weapons or offensive lineman with their first 4 picks, and I think each of them will be a starter from Day 1. Will Campbell at left tackle seems like he will be their cornerstone blindside blocker for the next 10 years. Could the Patriots end up jumping all the way to Wild Card? I don’t think so, but I do think that they could be the second best team in the AFC East.
Verdict: Over
New Orleans Saints
2024 Record: 5-12
Over/Under Line: 6.5 Wins
I legitimately think that the Saints could be in contention for the worst team in the NFL this year. Derek Carr may not play this year, and wasn’t playing very well for them when he was healthy anyways. They drafted QB Tyler Shough in the second round, who’s already 26 years old and his playstyle most reminds me of… Derek Carr. This roster is aging, expensive, and injury prone, and to be honest it’s not that good. Kellen Moore may end up being a good NFL head coach, but I have a hard time believing he’ll be able to succeed with this roster in his first NFL coaching gig.
Verdict: Under
New York Giants
2024 Record: 3-14
Over/Under Line: 5.5 Wins
This feels like it could be the final year of the Brian Daboll/Joe Schoen regime in New York, and they have somehow placed their lasting legacies in the hands of 3 quarterbacks at once. Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart will combine to create the most even quarterback competition we have seen in a while, but are we sure that any of them are that big of an upgrade over Daniel Jones right now? Any success the Giants have this season will likely come from what is expected to be a ferocious pass rush with the addition of Abdul Carter. While I think Carter was the most talented defensive player in this draft, I’m not sure it’s enough to overcome what could be another year of poor offensive performances.
Verdict: Under
New York Jets
2024 Record: 5-12
Over/Under Line: 5.5 Wins
Anyone else feeling like the Jets could be sneaky good this year? How you feel about the Jets is probably correlated to how you feel about Justin Fields. The highlights are electric, but the sacks and turnovers make you want to scream. I like the Aaron Glenn hire for the head coaching position, and I think they made smart moves in the draft to upgrade positions of need. If this team could win 7 games in back to back seasons with Zach Wilson, I see no reason why they couldn’t win seven with Justin Fields and (hopefully) a more cohesive and united organizational front.
Verdict: Over
Philadelphia Eagles
2024 Record: 14-3
Over/Under Line: 11.5 Wins
In Howie, Philly trusts. The Eagles are returning the majority of their starters from a Super Bowl winning roster, as well as many of their coaches, though there will be a new offensive coordinator in Kevin Patullo. The defense is still elite, Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are still an elite duo, and the weapons around them are elite. Don’t over think it.
Verdict: Over
Pittsburgh Steelers
2024 Record: 10-7
Over/Under Line: 8.5 Wins
Could this finally be the year that Mike Tomlin’s .500 streak finally comes to an end? The Steelers overpaid for DK Metcalf, and as of writing they don’t have a quarterback to throw him and George Pickens the ball. Mason Rudolph didn’t show much in his time in Tennessee, and Will Howard would be a 6th round rookie should he see the field. Yes, the Aaron Rodgers piece still lingers over this team, but after his play last year, it doesn’t seem like he’s the answer either. The vaunted Steelers defense is going to have to perform miracles to carry this team to victories, but I think the QB situation is going to be too much to overcome.
Verdict: Under
San Francisco 49ers
2024 Record: 6-11
Over/Under Line: 10.5 Wins
I understand that the 49ers were in the Super Bowl 2 years ago, but 10.5 wins seems like a very high bar. Even though CMC will be coming back, the list of departures from San Francisco this offseason goes very long. Deebo Samuel is gone. Talanoa Hufanga is gone. Dre Greenlaw is gone. Kyle Shanahan is still one of the greatest offensive minds of this generation, but I think the talent drain is too much to overcome. I think there is a very real chance that the 49ers end the season at the bottom of a very competitive NFC West.
Verdict: Under
Seattle Seahawks
2024 Record: 10-7
Over/Under Line: 8.5 Wins
Year 2 of the Mike MacDonald Era is going to be fun to watch. Geno Smith has been traded out for Sam Darnold. Essentially, the Seahawks have put a QB who struggles with pressure behind an offensive line that has been notoriously bad in pass protection for years. However, the defense is only going to improve in year 2. Also, the Seahawks nailed the draft this year, grabbing 3 impact players (OG Grey Zabel, S Nick Emmanwori, and TE Elijah Arroyo) and the potential QB of the future in Jalen Milroe. I think the Seahawks could challenge for the division crown this year, and could even improve from their 10 win record from 2024.
Verdict: Over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2024 Record: 10-7
Over/Under Line: 9.5 Wins
The Buccaneers have been the class of the NFC South for a while now, and I don’t expect that to change this year. The addition of Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka is a classic case of building on a strength. Also, the Bucs added two defensive backs in Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish who fit Todd Bowles’ scheme and are uber-talented. Oh, and the Tampa Bay core (Mayfield, Evans, Godwin, Vea, David) is still here and showing few signs of slowing down. I believe the Bucs will be able to fend off the Falcons and the Panthers for the NFC South crown, and continue their run of dominance in the division.
Verdict: Over
Tennessee Titans
2024 Record: 3-14
Over/Under Line: 5.5 Wins
The Titans have their quarterback. Cam Ward will look to commandeer themselves out of the AFC South basement after their abysmal 2024 season. This is an important season for head coach Brian Callahan, who struggled to reign in Will Levis’ turnover problems. Something to note about the Titans- their defense was actually quite good last year. Surprisingly, they were 2nd in yards allowed per game last year. If Ward can provide at least competent production as a signal caller (not to mention his immense upside), the Titans defense could carry them to respectability this year.
Verdict: Over
Washington Commanders
2024 Record: 12-5
Over/Under Line: 9.5 Wins
Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders shocked the world last year with a run to the NFC Championship game. Now, they must fend off the dreaded sophomore slump. To start, they found great value in the draft with OT Josh Conerly Jr. and WR Jaylin Lane to support Daniels. They added CB Trey Amos in Round 2 to add to a secondary that was hit hard with injuries last year. All 3 could be impact starters on Day 1. They may not be the best in their own division (What’s up Philadelphia?), but they are really close. I think 9.5 wins will be an easy bar to clear.
Verdict: Over
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